My tips

semiprogambler · 20-01-2010 03:05PM

Mister green 230 ling ew WON

Mister pete 250 new ew
Val c 700 kemp

POINTBREAK · 20-01-2010 03:48PM

semiprogambler wrote: »

Mister green 230 ling ew WON
Mister pete 250 new ew..........3rd at 4/1

Val c 700 kemp

Nice one........ 8/1 winner

x PyRo · 20-01-2010 03:50PM

It's not hard to back a horse who's been backed in from 25/1 to 8/1 in fairness.

semiprogambler · 20-01-2010 04:12PM

x PyRo wrote: »

It's not hard to back a horse who's been backed in from 25/1 to 8/1 in fairness.

Hi Mate,

If it`s that easy to pick winners and show a profit over 30/50 bets why don`t you post your selections?

x PyRo · 20-01-2010 04:26PM

semiprogambler wrote: »

Hi Mate,

If it`s that easy to pick winners and show a profit over 30/50 bets why don`t you post your selections?

I do, and i'm down 1 point after about 100 picks.

I pick my own horses the night before 90% of the time, i don't rely on market movers to decide if i'll back them or not.

I never ever claimed it's easy to pick winners, i know it's damn hard to make a profit but i don't see the point in picking market movers, we can all do that easily, you just seem to post them up.

Fair play for being in profit and all but i just don't think it's as impressive as Pointbreak believes it is, then again profit is profit.

semiprogambler · 20-01-2010 04:38PM

x PyRo wrote: »

I do, and i'm down 1 point after about 100 picks.

I pick my own horses the night before 90% of the time, i don't rely on market movers to decide if i'll back them or not.

I never ever claimed it's easy to pick winners, i know it's damn hard to make a profit but i don't see the point in picking market movers, we can all do that easily, you just seem to post them up.

Fair play for being in profit and all but i just don't think it's as impressive as Pointbreak believes it is, then again profit is profit.

I`m here to make a profit be it by form, info, systems, movers or whatever, if i think the bet still represents value at what ever price i will back it to make a profit.
If you don`t like my style of bet selection then dont follow the thread its not worth getting stressed out. Quite simple!

x PyRo · 20-01-2010 04:41PM

semiprogambler wrote: »

I`m here to make a profit be it by form, info, systems, movers or whatever, if i think the bet still represents value at what ever price i will back it to make a profit.
If you don`t like my style of bet selection then dont follow the thread it`s quite simple!

Just airing my views, i'm sure you don't mind some constructive criticism ?.

I'll keep an eye on your results and fair play to you for making money from this, even though the method is a little bit obvious.

POINTBREAK · 20-01-2010 04:47PM

x PyRo wrote: »

I do, and i'm down 1 point after about 100 picks.

I pick my own horses the night before 90% of the time, i don't rely on market movers to decide if i'll back them or not.

I never ever claimed it's easy to pick winners, i know it's damn hard to make a profit but i don't see the point in picking market movers, we can all do that easily, you just seem to post them up.

Fair play for being in profit and all but i just don't think it's as impressive as Pointbreak believes it is, then again profit is profit.

Picking your own selection the night before is all very noble, but if you are making a loss I fail to see how you can criticise someone who is making a good profit. It doesn't matter a jot how SP picks winners, if he takes the market in to consideration all the better . It makes sense to do that.

essexman · 20-01-2010 05:03PM

I can see both viewpoints here as I've tried many market move ideas over the last few years. They seem to work sometimes for quite a while then inexplicably stop working. The test will be Time in the end. One angle that is definately under researched is what trainers to follow in the context of market moves I think anyway.

semiprogambler · 20-01-2010 05:03PM

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Picking your own selection the night before is all very noble, but if you are making a loss I fail to see how you can criticise someone who is making a good profit. It doesn't matter a jot how SP picks winners, if he takes the market in to consideration all the better . It makes sense to do that.

That`s exactly the point PB. The gamblers graveyard is littered with fallen gamblers who looked through form blinkered eyes. Being a greyhound owner of many years i know stand out form dogs who haven`t got a chance because the trainer has stuffed them. The same can be said of the horse racing industry. Let any market move be a tool to aiding your gambling knowledge

candlegrease · 20-01-2010 05:52PM

X Pyro doesn't seem to grasp the goal of betting: to make a profit. The means are irrelevant.

essexman · 20-01-2010 06:23PM

Stanley Rigby never seen anything like that. easy to back at 14/1 just before the on course market. they say it opened at 7/1, no way it was 14/1.
they,ve returned it at 11/2 !! came 2nd. kempton 5.00
6
8
10
12
14
18
20
18
SP
22
SP

x PyRo · 20-01-2010 06:32PM

candlegrease wrote: »

X Pyro doesn't seem to grasp the goal of betting: to make a profit. The means are irrelevant.

Where did i say that ?. I said fair play for being in profit but as with all systems/methods it can hit a bad run of form, lots of market movers fail, probably most of them and it could happen here too. I'm not having a go i was just saying what i thought, i'm entitled to so stop putting words in my mouth saying that i don't grasp the goal of betting, because i can assure you i do.

x PyRo · 20-01-2010 06:35PM

essexman wrote: »

They seem to work sometimes for quite a while then inexplicably stop working.

That's exactly what i think could happen, everything hits bad spells.

Fair play OP, and keep it up as i do hope you keep making yourself money and others who may follow. Not going to post on this subject anymore as it's clogging up the thread, all the best.

POINTBREAK · 20-01-2010 08:31PM

Weds 19th Jan
Sequence.... 1000 3000 3101 0110 1000 01100 010010002 001130
Bets 40
Wins 12
Lays 3 from 3
Profit + 22.1

Keep up the good work and don't listen to anyone who tells you your'e only doing this or only doing that. Who really gives a monkeys how you find winners. It's profit that counts in the end.

semiprogambler · 21-01-2010 07:55AM

x PyRo wrote: »

That's exactly what i think could happen, everything hits bad spells.

Fair play OP, and keep it up as i do hope you keep making yourself money and others who may follow. Not going to post on this subject anymore as it's clogging up the thread, all the best.

Have been seriously betting for 3 years now and to date have not had a really bad month to report about. Obviously like anyone else ive had bad spells but nothing in the way of prolonged losing runs which knock the confidence for six and ultimately derail the profit target and kill the betting bank!

thesandeman · 21-01-2010 11:06AM

Go for it Semi. Lets hope the curse of Boards doesnt get you. Even Mel Collier was getting the odd winner until we started to follow him lol.

kingshankly · 21-01-2010 11:45AM

I'm sorry but I'm with x pyro here every horse bar a couple that has been selected has been on a market mover. you will never make money backing market movers at sp . This post is not criticism it's advice. I am on a lot of these market movers at the original price (I punt for various gamblers in England)and am just about making a small profit.
Best of luck would love to see you prevail but remember the golden rule VALUE and if you selecting horse at bottomed out prices your not getting value . If you say your selecting these horse through other methods maybe so but why not post them at 10am

POINTBREAK · 23-01-2010 02:02AM

kingshankly wrote: »

I'm sorry but I'm with x pyro here every horse bar a couple that has been selected has been on a market mover. you will never make money backing market movers at sp . This post is not criticism it's advice. I am on a lot of these market movers at the original price (I punt for various gamblers in England)and am just about making a small profit.
Best of luck would love to see you prevail but remember the golden rule VALUE and if you selecting horse at bottomed out prices your not getting value . If you say your selecting these horse through other methods maybe so but why not post them at 10am

On Betfair or with bookies?

kingshankly · 23-01-2010 10:48AM

POINTBREAK wrote: »

On Betfair or with bookies?

99% bookies you get very little liquidity on betfair at 11am in a selling hurdle or the likes

semiprogambler · 23-01-2010 11:39AM

kingshankly wrote: »

I'm sorry but I'm with x pyro here every horse bar a couple that has been selected has been on a market mover. you will never make money backing market movers at sp . This post is not criticism it's advice. I am on a lot of these market movers at the original price (I punt for various gamblers in England)and am just about making a small profit.
Best of luck would love to see you prevail but remember the golden rule VALUE and if you selecting horse at bottomed out prices your not getting value . If you say your selecting these horse through other methods maybe so but why not post them at 10am

Thanks Kingshankley,

First of all i think my results are to sp as far as i`m aware many thanks to PB for proofing.
Agree totally about value but wheres the value on a early price selection that does not win? The likes of PW and HT do not make a profit to sp this does not make them bad tipsters, in fact quite the reverse they are exceptional but because of this there selections are `over bet`
The skill is to find the selections that have not been over bet and still represent value even @ sp!

POINTBREAK · 23-01-2010 12:02PM

Exactly Semipro, his post seems to show the logic in what you say since he is getting on at the top prices and only making a small profit. If he means 16/1 and 20/1 the strike rate must be pretty poor. I mean if they are all 20/1 a small profit could mean only only one in 16 is winning.

I have proofed all yours at SP because its a fairer way of doing it. Pricewise frequently clain 20/1 winners when practically no one has been able to get the price.
Just out of curiosity did you back any winners Thurs/Fri?......... I cant add them in but just out of interest.

semiprogambler · 23-01-2010 12:27PM

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Exactly Semipro, his post seems to show the logic in what you say since he is getting on at the top prices and only making a small profit. If he means 16/1 and 20/1 the strike rate must be pretty poor. I mean if they are all 20/1 a small profit could mean only only one in 16 is winning.

I have proofed all yours at SP because its a fairer way of doing it. Pricewise frequently clain 20/1 winners when practically no one has been able to get the price.
Just out of curiosity did you back any winners Thurs/Fri?......... I cant add them in but just out of interest.

4/1 ew winner on thursday.

No good yesterday

semiprogambler · 23-01-2010 02:33PM

Tarquinius 155 winc ew
Volador 230 winc 2pts win
Qozak 310 asc
Morgan be 330 hay ew

POINTBREAK · 23-01-2010 04:50PM

Sat 23rd Jan
Sequence.... 1000 3000 3101 0110 1000 01100 010010002 001130/0100/
Bets 44
Wins 13
Lays 3 from 3
Profit + 21.1

Minus 1 Point today. Good winner at 2/1sp

argosy2006 · 23-01-2010 08:27PM

I think he should get Mels job

kingshankly · 24-01-2010 02:16AM

semiprogambler wrote: »

Thanks Kingshankley,

First of all i think my results are to sp as far as i`m aware many thanks to PB for proofing.
Agree totally about value but wheres the value on a early price selection that does not win? The likes of PW and HT do not make a profit to sp this does not make them bad tipsters, in fact quite the reverse they are exceptional but because of this there selections are `over bet`
The skill is to find the selections that have not been over bet and still represent value even @ sp!

It all depends on what you determine as value and the best way you can judge value is by Making up your own tissue for each race work it to 100% market and see how it compares to the industry. It long and tedious(hence I'm still up at 1am going through form when I should be out drinking)but it can work
by the way you say theres no value in a morning price that gets bet I disagree its still value.

POINTBREAK · 24-01-2010 02:29AM

I know what you are saying King, but value must equal profit. Your theory is good, but a 100/1 loser is still a loser and a 2/7 winner is still a winner. I'm kind of with Harry Findley where a 1/5 can be value. If the market speaks and throws up winners, it matters not if you missed the 10/1 ,you can still have 4/1 be on a winner and get value.

kingshankly · 24-01-2010 02:51AM

POINTBREAK wrote: »

I know what you are saying King, but value must equal profit. Your theory is good, but a 100/1 loser is still a loser and a 2/7 winner is still a winner. I'm kind of with Harry Findley where a 1/5 can be value. If the market speaks and throws up winners, it matters not if you missed the 10/1 ,you can still have 4/1 be on a winner and get value.

Harry made his money years ago backing 1/5 shots that should have been 1/25 and he is going terrible lately a few of mymates were backing for him and he was cut loose . Don't beleve a word he says on tv he's full of it.I believe He's in Australia at the tennis at the moment trying to scrape a few pound together.

semiprogambler · 24-01-2010 03:16AM

kingshankly wrote: »

It all depends on what you determine as value and the best way you can judge value is by Making up your own tissue for each race work it to 100% market and see how it compares to the industry. It long and tedious(hence I'm still up at 1am going through form when I should be out drinking)but it can work
by the way you say there's no value in a morning price that gets bet I disagree its still value.

Hi Kingshankly,
Well we certainly do have a difference of opinion here. Your concept of value is based on 100% market theoretical value my opinion of value is based on practical/realistic value.

Without wanting to bore the pants off everyone i have already mentioned in earlier posts about trainers and jockeys putting horses into races for what ever reasons these are the areas where i look for true value.

I`m sure there is room in the racing world for both our interpretations of value with the effort you appear to be putting in to your selections you deserve success, but as far as i`m concerned @ the end of the day profit is the thing that counts and i`m quite happy where i stand on that front.

My tips

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