Big Change Monday Onward, much colder, ice and snow later

darkman2 · 12-12-2009 03:19PM #1

...and frost;)

Big changes underway in the weather. It's getting drier for the next few days as High Pressure builds - but it is getting progressively colder aswell with each day. Initially from Monday to Wednesday it will be mainly dry with good sunshine once any fog or frost clears in the mornings. From Wednesday night is when the action starts to begin as a Northeasterly wind developes. Snow is possible anywhere from Thursday onward as the weather turns a bit Continental. And there is no end in sight for the forseeable future once the cold weather is established. An unusual coming together of circumstances leaves us locked into a pattern more reminiscent of the 1980's. Wintry showers are set to become the norm and more prolonged frontal snow is possible from the North aswell at times.

Charts are available here from several different weather models

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsenseur.html

GFS, ECM and UKMO are the 3 primary ones you should use.

For the GFS pressure charts and timeline

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

Click on a time to show charts
For the uninitiated remember air circulates anti clockwise around Low Pressure and clockwise around High Pressure.

Other charts of use are the 850hpa Temperature charts which are temperatures roughly 1,500m from the surface of the Earth. Anything below -5 leaves us in a posistion conducive to snow at low levels.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

Click on 850hpa Temperatur to open those charts

Dew Points - must be below 0 for snow at low levels.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

Click on 2m Taupunkt to open those charts

They are just 3 basic charts you are going to need. Beware all the models are volatile in accuracy the further you go out. But 168hrs (7 days) is regarded as being really on the limit of reliable. Beyond that is really indicative charts. The resolution also gets lower the further you go out.

Here is another site http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

Timing of model runs

GFS has 4 model runs per day. They begin coming out at the following times.

00z - 03.30
06z - 09.30
12z - 15.30
18z - 21.30

ECMWF has 2 model runs available to us

00z - 06.10
12z - 18.10

UKMO (UK Met Office)
00z - 04.45
12z - 16.45

More later!:)

darkman2 · 12-12-2009 03:50PM

I forgot about that. Thanks!

holly1 · 12-12-2009 03:53PM

Thats great news:)
How come Met Eireann never said a word about it:mad:.
They said it would be settled till next weekend,are they afraid to predict or what.

LFCFan · 12-12-2009 04:14PM

I reckon if you all stopped talking about potential snow we might actually get some. It's nothing but disappointment after disappointment when it comes to potential snow on here!!!

Rougies · 12-12-2009 04:24PM

LFCFan wrote: »

I reckon if you all stopped talking about potential snow we might actually get some. It's nothing but disappointment after disappointment when it comes to potential snow on here!!!

Shhh, we're trying to do some science here.

Deep Easterly · 12-12-2009 05:36PM

Latest UKMO at 144hrs sez "game on" for cool, frosty weather at least:

Dosen't look particularly snowy but the trend is more important than the specifics at this early stage, a trend which is still excellent.

Scubadevils · 12-12-2009 05:41PM

In the UK Wednesday and Thursday, hope this holds off till I'm back... don't want to get stuck there!

Been following this for the last week or so on NW, can't help but get caught up in the excitement but I should know better after 5 years now of this during the winter!!!

darkman2 · 12-12-2009 06:26PM

ECM 120hrs

ECM1-120.GIF?12-0

Now that's a chart for snow.

And 144 - more snow. About to be hammered from the North aswell.

168..

DOCARCH · 12-12-2009 06:34PM

holly1 wrote: »

How come Met Eireann never said a word about it.

Gerry Murphy said it after 6pm news! Sleet and snow later in the week.........to high ground. :P

pauldry · 12-12-2009 06:40PM

In Sligo it is 6.1c in my back garden. The DP is at 4.2c. Snow still a long way off yet but the sky is clear. Only a brisk wind is keeping temperature up.

Does look like some parts of Ireland will have seen snow by the end of next week but lets just say the mountains now to be safe so no one gets too excited. Id say Scotland is a dead cert and England a nearly dead cert?

200motels · 12-12-2009 06:41PM

What's the chances of snow here in Waterford? The RTE weather just said sleet and snow on high ground in the north and east.

darkman2 · 12-12-2009 06:50PM

Met Eireann use the ECM model above - definate snow to all levels if it came off by Wednesday mostly in the East and North West. Later risk of frontal snow from the North and showers mostly in the West and North.

By next Sunday and it just keeps on going.

ECM1-192.GIF?12-0

Deep Easterly · 12-12-2009 06:56PM

If the tonight's ecm at 192hrs verifies anything like it is showing, could be some very serious snowfalls in the North and West in particular:

For now, I am happy with the super dry easterlies for the middle of next week!!!

Deep Easterly · 12-12-2009 07:05PM

At 240hrs, could be very serious. First hints of a blizzardy breakdown?

Bring it on...:cool:

Deep Easterly · 12-12-2009 07:34PM

darkman2 · 12-12-2009 07:37PM

Yes, a stunning set of charts but just a bit of caution required as the GFS and UKMO don't really agree with it yet. Tonights GFS is important to see if it trends with the ECM. Mind you both the GFS and UKMO are good and cold aswell. Just not as cold and snowy.

darkman2 · 12-12-2009 08:21PM

DOCARCH wrote: »

Gerry Murphy said it after 6pm news! Sleet and snow later in the week.........to high ground. :P

Here is that forcast

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/1212/6news_av.html?2666948,null,230

Deep Easterly · 12-12-2009 09:32PM

Gerry "we can expect" Murphy just announced that John Eagleton will doing the Farming Forecast early tomorrow afternoon.

Should make for interesting viewing. Eagleton always throws in some interesting points into a forecast.

JonnyM · 12-12-2009 09:37PM

no chance at snow lads you are just clutching at straws here :rolleyes:

Deep Easterly · 12-12-2009 09:40PM

JonnyM wrote: »

no chance at snow lads :rolleyes:

Interesting.

What are you basing that profound declaration on?

Timistry · 12-12-2009 09:58PM

Deep Easterly wrote: »

If the tonight's ecm at 192hrs verifies anything like it is showing, could be some very serious snowfalls in the North and West in particular.

For now, I am happy with the super dry easterlies for the middle of next week!!!

Nice to hear the word west being mentioned. An easterly location is favourable in these set-ups but if the cold stays around for long enough, surely our chance will come

Iancar29 · 12-12-2009 10:02PM

WOO BRING ON THE SNOW!

IT WOULD BE A GREAT ENDING TO THE OUL COLLEGE EXAMS!

Looks like i was right to put on my bet for snow on christmas day!

JonnyM · 12-12-2009 10:16PM

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Interesting. What are you basing that profound declaration on?

common sense there will be no snow at all yous talk bout charts that are 3-5 days away, come back to me when we have snow next week

pistolpetes11 · 12-12-2009 10:19PM

JonnyM wrote: »

common sense there will be no snow at all yous talk bout charts that are 3-5 days away, come back to me when we have snow next week

It wont be a forecast if the lads come back when the event has happened :rolleyes: it will be just merely stating the obvious !

WorriedSick · 12-12-2009 10:32PM

JonnyM wrote: »

common sense there will be no snow at all yous talk bout charts that are 3-5 days away, come back to me when we have snow next week

. fore·cast or fore·cast·ed, fore·cast·ing, fore·casts
v.tr. 1. To estimate or calculate in advance

Elmo5 · 12-12-2009 10:42PM

Just had a look at accuweather and they have a weather alarm for my area (celbridge) for wednesday night, Dec 16th

Amount of Precipitation: 4.8mm
Amount of Rain: 0.0mm Amount of Snow: 4.06cm Hours of Precipitation: 6 Hrs

Min · 12-12-2009 10:45PM

When we get easterlies the hills of north Kilkenny get snow.

I predict snow as well as forecasting it....

13-12-2009 12:04AM

Elmo5 wrote: »

Just had a look at accuweather and they have a weather alarm for my area (celbridge) for wednesday night, Dec 16th

Amount of Precipitation: 4.8mm
Amount of Rain: 0.0mm Amount of Snow: 4.06cm Hours of Precipitation: 6 Hrs

Most excellent!!! Im in Lucan

Cant wait. This may well be a stupid question, but does the 6 hours of precip mean snow? or could it be a mixture of sleet and snow.

Thanks:)

jenzz · 13-12-2009 01:29AM

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/forecast2.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&postalcode=EUR;IE;EI006;DUBLIN;&metric=1

Woohoo!

snow for dublin ! nice

Ouch - Realfeel: -13 WTF !!!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks Trogdor for the explanation - heres for a snowy Bray lol

jaffa20 · 13-12-2009 01:32AM

:eek: If it's anything like last year i dunno how i'm gonna drive to work. A few sick days and snowball fights i guess

snow plow · 13-12-2009 02:33AM

jaffa20 wrote: »

:eek: If it's anything like last year i dunno how i'm gonna drive to work. A few sick days and snowball fights i guess

I'm guessing you mean feb (when I got 8CM of snow on two occasions! Also I'm very near the coast) THIS YEAR? Yes it would be great to experiance something like that again so soon and possibly with even heavier SNOW!!!

I really am starting to get exited now as it looks like been bitterly cold with some
serious snowfall possible in the east at first and then maybe some for the rest of the country.

Dan

Big Change Monday Onward, much colder, ice and snow later

Comments