Big Change Monday Onward, much colder, ice and snow later

darkman2

...and frost;)


Big changes underway in the weather. It's getting drier for the next few days as High Pressure builds - but it is getting progressively colder aswell with each day. Initially from Monday to Wednesday it will be mainly dry with good sunshine once any fog or frost clears in the mornings. From Wednesday night is when the action starts to begin as a Northeasterly wind developes. Snow is possible anywhere from Thursday onward as the weather turns a bit Continental. And there is no end in sight for the forseeable future once the cold weather is established. An unusual coming together of circumstances leaves us locked into a pattern more reminiscent of the 1980's. Wintry showers are set to become the norm and more prolonged frontal snow is possible from the North aswell at times.


Charts are available here from several different weather models




http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsenseur.html


GFS, ECM and UKMO are the 3 primary ones you should use.


For the GFS pressure charts and timeline

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

Click on a time to show charts
For the uninitiated remember air circulates anti clockwise around Low Pressure and clockwise around High Pressure.

Other charts of use are the 850hpa Temperature charts which are temperatures roughly 1,500m from the surface of the Earth. Anything below -5 leaves us in a posistion conducive to snow at low levels.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

Click on 850hpa Temperatur to open those charts


Dew Points - must be below 0 for snow at low levels.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

Click on 2m Taupunkt to open those charts


They are just 3 basic charts you are going to need. Beware all the models are volatile in accuracy the further you go out. But 168hrs (7 days) is regarded as being really on the limit of reliable. Beyond that is really indicative charts. The resolution also gets lower the further you go out.

Here is another site http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gfse_cartes.php


Timing of model runs

GFS has 4 model runs per day. They begin coming out at the following times.

00z - 03.30
06z - 09.30
12z - 15.30
18z - 21.30

ECMWF has 2 model runs available to us

00z - 06.10
12z - 18.10

UKMO (UK Met Office)
00z - 04.45
12z - 16.45

More later!:)

darkman2

I forgot about that. Thanks!

holly1

Thats great news:)
How come Met Eireann never said a word about it:mad:.
They said it would be settled till next weekend,are they afraid to predict or what.

LFCFan

I reckon if you all stopped talking about potential snow we might actually get some. It's nothing but disappointment after disappointment when it comes to potential snow on here!!!

Rougies

LFCFan wrote: »

I reckon if you all stopped talking about potential snow we might actually get some. It's nothing but disappointment after disappointment when it comes to potential snow on here!!!

Shhh, we're trying to do some science here.

Deep Easterly

Latest UKMO at 144hrs sez "game on" for cool, frosty weather at least:



Dosen't look particularly snowy but the trend is more important than the specifics at this early stage, a trend which is still excellent.

Scubadevils

In the UK Wednesday and Thursday, hope this holds off till I'm back... don't want to get stuck there!

Been following this for the last week or so on NW, can't help but get caught up in the excitement but I should know better after 5 years now of this during the winter!!!

darkman2

ECM 120hrs




Now that's a chart for snow.


And 144 - more snow. About to be hammered from the North aswell.





168..

DOCARCH

holly1 wrote: »

How come Met Eireann never said a word about it.

Gerry Murphy said it after 6pm news! Sleet and snow later in the week.........to high ground. :P

pauldry

In Sligo it is 6.1c in my back garden. The DP is at 4.2c. Snow still a long way off yet but the sky is clear. Only a brisk wind is keeping temperature up.

Does look like some parts of Ireland will have seen snow by the end of next week but lets just say the mountains now to be safe so no one gets too excited. Id say Scotland is a dead cert and England a nearly dead cert?

200motels

What's the chances of snow here in Waterford? The RTE weather just said sleet and snow on high ground in the north and east.

darkman2

Met Eireann use the ECM model above - definate snow to all levels if it came off by Wednesday mostly in the East and North West. Later risk of frontal snow from the North and showers mostly in the West and North.



By next Sunday and it just keeps on going.

Deep Easterly

If the tonight's ecm at 192hrs verifies anything like it is showing, could be some very serious snowfalls in the North and West in particular:



For now, I am happy with the super dry easterlies for the middle of next week!!!

Deep Easterly

At 240hrs, could be very serious. First hints of a blizzardy breakdown?



Bring it on...:cool:

Deep Easterly

darkman2

Yes, a stunning set of charts but just a bit of caution required as the GFS and UKMO don't really agree with it yet. Tonights GFS is important to see if it trends with the ECM. Mind you both the GFS and UKMO are good and cold aswell. Just not as cold and snowy.

darkman2

DOCARCH wrote: »

Gerry Murphy said it after 6pm news! Sleet and snow later in the week.........to high ground. :P

Here is that forcast

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/1212/6news_av.html?2666948,null,230

Deep Easterly

Gerry "we can expect" Murphy just announced that John Eagleton will doing the Farming Forecast early tomorrow afternoon.

Should make for interesting viewing. Eagleton always throws in some interesting points into a forecast.

JonnyM

no chance at snow lads you are just clutching at straws here :rolleyes:

Deep Easterly

JonnyM wrote: »

no chance at snow lads :rolleyes:

Interesting. What are you basing that profound declaration on?

Timistry

Deep Easterly wrote: »

If the tonight's ecm at 192hrs verifies anything like it is showing, could be some very serious snowfalls in the North and West in particular.

For now, I am happy with the super dry easterlies for the middle of next week!!!

Nice to hear the word west being mentioned. An easterly location is favourable in these set-ups but if the cold stays around for long enough, surely our chance will come

Iancar29

WOO BRING ON THE SNOW!

IT WOULD BE A GREAT ENDING TO THE OUL COLLEGE EXAMS!

Looks like i was right to put on my bet for snow on christmas day!

JonnyM

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Interesting. What are you basing that profound declaration on?

common sense there will be no snow at all yous talk bout charts that are 3-5 days away, come back to me when we have snow next week

pistolpetes11

JonnyM wrote: »

common sense there will be no snow at all yous talk bout charts that are 3-5 days away, come back to me when we have snow next week

It wont be a forecast if the lads come back when the event has happened :rolleyes: it will be just merely stating the obvious !

WorriedSick

JonnyM wrote: »

common sense there will be no snow at all yous talk bout charts that are 3-5 days away, come back to me when we have snow next week

. fore·cast or fore·cast·ed, fore·cast·ing, fore·casts
v.tr. 1. To estimate or calculate in advance

Elmo5

Just had a look at accuweather and they have a weather alarm for my area (celbridge) for wednesday night, Dec 16th

Amount of Precipitation: 4.8mm
Amount of Rain: 0.0mm Amount of Snow: 4.06cm Hours of Precipitation: 6 Hrs

Min

When we get easterlies the hills of north Kilkenny get snow.

I predict snow as well as forecasting it....

Elmo5

Elmo5 wrote: »

Just had a look at accuweather and they have a weather alarm for my area (celbridge) for wednesday night, Dec 16th

Amount of Precipitation: 4.8mm
Amount of Rain: 0.0mm Amount of Snow: 4.06cm Hours of Precipitation: 6 Hrs

Most excellent!!! Im in Lucan Cant wait. This may well be a stupid question, but does the 6 hours of precip mean snow? or could it be a mixture of sleet and snow.

Thanks:)

jenzz

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/forecast2.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&postalcode=EUR;IE;EI006;DUBLIN;&metric=1

Woohoo!

snow for dublin ! nice

Ouch - Realfeel: -13 WTF !!!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks Trogdor for the explanation - heres for a snowy Bray lol

jaffa20

:eek: If it's anything like last year i dunno how i'm gonna drive to work. A few sick days and snowball fights i guess

snow plow

jaffa20 wrote: »

:eek: If it's anything like last year i dunno how i'm gonna drive to work. A few sick days and snowball fights i guess

I'm guessing you mean feb (when I got 8CM of snow on two occasions! Also I'm very near the coast) THIS YEAR? Yes it would be great to experiance something like that again so soon and possibly with even heavier SNOW!!!

I really am starting to get exited now as it looks like been bitterly cold with some
serious snowfall possible in the east at first and then maybe some for the rest of the country.





Dan

Deep Easterly

Still looking chilly on this morning's models. Slightly different outlook between the UKMO and ECM at 144hrs this morning, but differing only synoptically, as both are still looking darn cold.

UKMO keeps a stiff, cold easterly going:



While the ECM turns it more to the north in the same timeframe:





UKMO would mean better chance of snow for the east, while the risk moves to the north ala ECM. Personally, I hope the UKMO is right, I know other's would prefer snow for the west, and I understand that completely, but a dry easterly is what is needed for at least a few days just to mop up the horrendous floodings around the place. I still can't walk out into my back garden without sinking up to my knees in sodden ****e :D:D

When the place is dried up, then I will welcome the snow with open arms, legs or whatever it takes...;):p

holly1

How many days before can you predict for definite what the weather conditions will be Deep Easterly.

Deep Easterly

holly1 wrote: »

How many days before can you predict for definite what the weather conditions will be Deep Easterly.

Hi fellow Smurph!

Hard to say really but to predict actual weather conditions is actually a lot harder than predicting general trends, such as the current one. For example, it does looking like it will become cooler during the coming week, although not especially cold as the real deal is not forecast to hit til thursday or friday.

However, to predict actual weather conditions, that becomes really difficult, even 6 to 3 hours in advance. Models only really show general trends, it is the specifics closer to the time that becomes the real challenge. Predicting snow, and where that snow will fall (or any other major weather), becomes a forecaster's nightmare and often things go wrong.

Best thing to do Holly is watch this space, plenty of brains on here who will keep us all up to date, live on air, as things unfold, if they unfold at all....:o

holly1

Thanks for that brother Smurf:D.I followed the snow alert here last year and it was great fun.We are having a party next saturday night and I wanted to know what to expect weather wise:)

Deep Easterly

holly1 wrote: »

Thanks for that brother Smurf:D.I followed the snow alert here last year and it was great fun.We are having a party next saturday night and I wanted to know what to expect weather wise:)

At this stage sister Smurph, the only thing that is almost certain for saturday is that it will be cold. Whether or not it will snow it is really hard to say, particularly as there is model disagreement in the alignment of favourable synoptics. Just stay tuned in and no doubt you will get a better idea what to expect come thursday or friday.

Either way, enjoy your party!

Min

7:55 radio 1 - threat of sleet and snow next weekend.

jambofc

ok im a weather enthusiast but by no means an expert or anywhere near,can i ask all you "experts" this.....


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html


in this picture(sorry i dont no how to get the picture to come up here(if someone could tell me,thanks)are those tempatures not very marginal for snow??
or am i reading it all wrong

ParkRunner

For what its worth, the odds of a white Xmas in Dublin on PaddyPower have shortened from 4/1 to 7/2.

Pangea

Just got the hardest nights frost of the winter here in Donegal ,i doubt it will defrost too much today. lovely weather , what a delight that it will be cold like this in the next week or 2 coming up to christmas, if it snows its a big bonus.

This is from met eireanns website, they mentioned the word snow already!
From Wednesday through to Friday it will turn even colder, with a risk of scattered wintry showers of sleet or even snow, mainly in northern and eastern coastal areas and especially over high ground.

owenc

Pangea wrote: »

Just got the hardest nights frost of the winter here in Donegal ,i doubt it will defrost too much today. lovely weather , what a delight that it will be cold like this in the next week or 2 coming up to christmas, if it snows its a big bonus.

This is from met eireanns website, they mentioned the word snow already!
From Wednesday through to Friday it will turn even colder, with a risk of scattered wintry showers of sleet or even snow, mainly in northern and eastern coastal areas and especially over high ground.

yes i doubt this frost will melt it is -3.4c here now and the only melted frost is on the roof facing the sun and i expect the temp to be around 0c max today what about you whats the current temp in donegal???

Redsunset

JonnyM wrote: »

no chance at snow lads you are just clutching at straws here :rolleyes:

just what the hell planet are you living on.

not letting you away with a comment like that.

it IS going to snow and your a fool to doubt it.

where do you live?

mike65

Well I'm not looking forwards to this, too old for snow to poor for the cold.

paulhac

redsunset wrote: »

just what the hell planet are you living on.

not letting you away with a comment like that.

it IS going to snow and your a fool to doubt it.

where do you live?

I wouldnt even bother Redsunset, he'll see the errors of his ways soon enough.

arctictree

jambofc wrote: »

ok im a weather enthusiast but by no means an expert or anywhere near,can i ask all you "experts" this.....


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html


in this picture(sorry i dont no how to get the picture to come up here(if someone could tell me,thanks)are those tempatures not very marginal for snow??
or am i reading it all wrong

The GFS temp charts are not really that accurate for temperature forecasts. For a start, the temp shown near Dublin is actually at a location a few miles off the wicklow coast, so take a couple of degrees off that for a start. Also, the temps are maxes and generally would be a couple of degrees colder anyway. Also, these temps dont model cold inversion well at all.

A

Bog Butter

Thanks for the regular upadates guys. It is great fun!

I have a question regarding last Thursday's and Friday's weather if you don't mind. I work outdoors (in Tyrone) and I noticed that on Thursday we had Cirrus clouds and on Friday we had Stratus clouds (I had to google that to find out). Both days were dry. However there was a noticable difference though. Thursday was very calm with long bright sunny spells. I could work away and I didn't need to wear a coat. A guy flew over our site on a motorized hand glider. He obviously was taking advantage of the weather conditions. On Friday though it was overcast with a slight breeze, it was chilly and I deffinatley had to leave the coat on. I was wondering what was happening with the weather? Did those 2 days mark a transition in the weather and is it linked to the oncoming cold snap? Thanking you in advance.

jenzz

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/forecast.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&postalcode=EUR;IE;EI006;DUBLIN;&metric=1

have the charts changed ? snow appears to be gone missing from accu

Trogdor

redsunset wrote: »

IS going to snow and your a fool to doubt it.

Just as foolish to make a comment like that;) nothing is set in stone at all yet

Sleipnir

mike65 wrote: »

Well I'm not looking forwards to this, too old for snow to poor for the cold.

Throw a few snowballs and you'll feel much younger.

Pangea

White Christmas ahead, says postman

(UKPA) – 1 hour ago

A postman renowned for predicting the weather using ancient methods has insisted Ireland is heading for a white Christmas.

Michael Gallagher, who learned his age-old technique from the last generations living high in Donegal's Blue Stack mountains, uses nature and the behaviour of animals to make his forecast.

The 61-year-old, who lives in the remote Glenfin Valley, said all the signs pointed to snow on its way. "We are definitely on our way to a white Christmas," he said.

jenzz

Pangea wrote: »

White Christmas ahead, says postman

(UKPA) – 1 hour ago

A postman renowned for predicting the weather using ancient methods has insisted Ireland is heading for a white Christmas.

Michael Gallagher, who learned his age-old technique from the last generations living high in Donegal's Blue Stack mountains, uses nature and the behaviour of animals to make his forecast.

The 61-year-old, who lives in the remote Glenfin Valley, said all the signs pointed to snow on its way. "We are definitely on our way to a white Christmas," he said.

Im laughing at this but...... daddy never follows the weather forecast.. He was a farmer for the last like 100 years & he can tell you every day what the weather will be bringing..... & hes pretty damn accurate. Dont know how but he does !
Im not going to ask his oinion on a white christmas cos I know he will just burst my bubble .................................:(