Töpher's Log

Headshot · 24-10-2009 11:19pm

Töpher wrote: »

Decimal's much easier! Not too sure about tomorrow, but Milan @ 2.16 (6/5) away to Chievo does look tempting.

not sure did you see my edit

but just single bets ?

Töpher · 24-10-2009 11:26pm

I think for the purposes of tracking the bets I think too much about, putting them up as singles does the job, but if I've put a few up here in a short space of time I'll usually multiple them up (last time I did that all 3 bets lost!) :pac: I don't tend to have much luck beyond singles though, and it provides a good ground for the LSP.

Headshot · 24-10-2009 11:27pm

Töpher wrote: »

I think for the purposes of tracking the bets I think too much about, putting them up as singles does the job, but if I've put a few up here in a short space of time I'll usually multiple them up (last time I did that all 3 bets lost!) :pac: I don't tend to have much luck beyond singles though, and it provides a good ground for the LSP.

think ill start doing singles now, just having no luck with anything at the moment

Töpher · 25-10-2009 3:19pm

14.30 // Austria // Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 3.5 @ 2.18 (Over 1.5 in first half @ 1.84)

Only a quick one on this, it starts soon. Vienna are joint top of the table and will look at this match against Linz as the perfect opportunity to add 3 more points to their tally and hopefully add some to the GD column. Their attack has not scored qhat they'd like so far this year, but today brings the chance to change all that and claw back some of the goal difference at the top.

Linz's 5 away games to date have been insane. F10 A18, only picking up 1 point in the process. All of these games have had at least 2 goals in the first half, with some seeing up to 4! Their home games have seen similar amounts of goals, with one even seeing 7 in the first half(!). They're strong at the front and weak at the back, a dream for backing high scoring games!

Töpher · 25-10-2009 5:46pm

Töpher wrote: »

Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 3.5 @ 2.18 (Over 1.5 in first half @ 1.84)

:mad: 3-0 (:mad: 1-0 @ HT), very strange match all round! :eek:

LSP: +12.51

.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 3.5 @ 2.18
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 1.5 in first half @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Rio Ave v Sporting Braga - HT draw @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp - draw HT/FT Metz @ 5.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp @ 1.87
.L (2 - 1) Viborg v Vejle - Under 2.5 @ 2.08
.L (2 - 1) Bordeaux v Bayern Munich - draw @ 3.45
W (3 - 0) Blackpool v Sheffield United @ 2.56
W (2 - 1) Sporting Fingal v Limerick - Over 2.5 @ 1.83
W (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth @ 1.77
.L (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth - Under 2.5 @ 1.76
W (2 - 2) Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44
W (1 - 2) Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth - Over 2.5 @ 1.78
W (2 - 0) Monaco v Lens @ 1.74
W (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 2.5 @ 1.46
.L (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52
W (1 - 2) Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 @ 1.93
.L (2 - 1) Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50
W (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63
.L (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich - Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80
W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - Under 2.5 @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

Töpher · 26-10-2009 2:56pm

18.00// Denmark; SAS Ligen // AGF v Nordsjælland - Over 2.5 @ 1.85

Both of these teams have been on shocking runs of form since they last met 6 matches ago, both only picking up 3 points in the 5 games since AGF won 2-0 in Nordsjælland a few weeks ago.

AGF are the favourites here (@ 1.94), but with 4 defeats from their last 5 games, I'd be looking for higher (although only 1 of these was at home). These defeats are not down to instantly becoming poor (a win today would put them within 5 points of the top of the table) but more to do with the sheer unfortunate circumstances that have befallen their back line of late, with an influx of suspensions and injuries hitting them hard, so they are finding it impossible to keep a clean sheet at the moment, conceding in their last 5 (and in 9 from 12 so far this season). With the suspensions passed, they will be without no less than 3 regular defenders through injury for this evenings match, and given that their last 5 home matches have seen them concede a staggering 10 goals, shipping another tonight would be no surprise. They have the flair and ability to score goals (those same 5 home matches have also seen them score 10), but when they can't stop letting them in I'm reluctant to put money on the outright win.

Nordsjælland have lost 7 of their last 8 matches, but these are not all by large margins. They've shipped 10, and scored 5, in their last 5 away matches (though the last one, a 6-3 away to Brondby, skews the stats somewhat, there's been plenty of 1-0's). Realistically, they're poor up front, very poor, their last 8 league matches have seen them fail to score on 6 occassions - but on the back of scoring 3 away to Brondby, and with AGF's trouble, they'll be looking for more tonight.

The last 3 meetings between these sides produced unders, with the 6 before that all reaching overs. AGF's last 5 home matches have reached overs, and while only 1 of Nordsjælland's last 5 away games has reached overs, with AGF gunning to turn their form around and knowing they should take this, hopefully their defence worries them enough to take attack as the best form of defence.

Might also take a look at 3-1 @ 17.5, just for fun.

In_tuition · 26-10-2009 3:16pm

Given the shortage of defensive options for the home side would you not be safer with both teams to score @ 4/6 - not that considerably shorter in price and looks the more obvious giving what you've said.

Töpher · 26-10-2009 5:01pm

Maybe, I was approaching it from the standpoint that the home side have enough in attack to reach overs while keeping a clean sheet, should such an event happen.

Cue a 1-1 result now, :pac:.

Töpher · 26-10-2009 9:04pm

Töpher wrote: »

AGF v Nordsjælland - Over 2.5 @ 1.85

:mad: 0-2. AGF will be raging, both at themselves and the officials. They created enough chances in the first half to win 2 or 3 games, but were met by a determined keeper and the crossbar, and were denied a stonewall penalty. Second half they struggled to create as many chances, went behind on one of Nordsjælland's few forays forward. Then they equalized with 10 minutes to go, only for it to be ruled off in one of the worst offside decisions I've seen in ages (we're talking literal miles onside!), and Nordsjælland went straight to the other end and scored again. :eek:

I'd have laughed a bit more if I didn't have money on that! :pac:

Can't win them all, and at the moment I'm not winning any!

LSP: +11.51

.L (0 - 2) AGF v Nordsjælland - Over 2.5 @ 1.85
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 3.5 @ 2.18
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 1.5 in first half @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Rio Ave v Sporting Braga - HT draw @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp - draw HT/FT Metz @ 5.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp @ 1.87
.L (2 - 1) Viborg v Vejle - Under 2.5 @ 2.08
.L (2 - 1) Bordeaux v Bayern Munich - draw @ 3.45
W (3 - 0) Blackpool v Sheffield United @ 2.56
W (2 - 1) Sporting Fingal v Limerick - Over 2.5 @ 1.83
W (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth @ 1.77
.L (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth - Under 2.5 @ 1.76
W (2 - 2) Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44
W (1 - 2) Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth - Over 2.5 @ 1.78
W (2 - 0) Monaco v Lens @ 1.74
W (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 2.5 @ 1.46
.L (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52
W (1 - 2) Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 @ 1.93
.L (2 - 1) Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50
W (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63
.L (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich - Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80
W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - Under 2.5 @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

In_tuition · 27-10-2009 1:07am

Very unfortunate mate

Gillington · 27-10-2009 8:27am

Yeah I backed the overs here aswell raging when that header was ruled offside but there was a few other chances to get 3 goals in the game! Luckily I made a bit back on Unders in the Reading game,looking at anything tonight Topher?

Töpher · 27-10-2009 1:50pm

19.00 // France; Ligue 2 // Arles v Dijon @ 2.18

Arles (4th, 19pts) host Dijon (15th, 11pts) and will be hoping to keep up the pace with the top few clubs in Ligue 2, something they've done quite well at so far since their promotion. They're in a reasonable patch of form at the moment, with their last loss being 5 games ago away to Tours (who are on fire at home this season). Since then they've drawn 2 and won 2. Their only other loss this season (and only game in which they failed to score all season) was away to the mightily impressive Caen. Their home record is decent enough, P5 W3 D2 L0, F8 A5. They had a few tricky results lately, drawing at home with Vannes and Angers and only beating bottom placed Bastia 1-0, but they followed this up by going away to 6th place Laval and grinding out a 1-0 victory, something they will be hoping to further build on tonight.

Dijon are without a win in their last 5, drawing 3 and losing 2. They've yet to win on the road this year, and have only kept 1 clean sheet, away stats read P6 W0 D4 L2, F4 A8. Their last 4 away games have all been draws, but even managing that tonight will be difficult given their injury woes.

Dijon will be missing 7 first team regulars for tonights match, including their first choice keeper, some defenders, and several midfielders. Arles have failed to score more than 1 in their last 4 games, which is a concern (though they have scored in each of their 6 games since they played Caen), but have kept 2 clean sheets in a row, and against a side drafting in so many players that will be lacking match fitness and sharpness, 1 goal could well be enough.

Töpher · 27-10-2009 2:07pm

18.00 // Germany; DFB Pokal // Greuther Fürth v VfB Stuttgart - Over 2.5 @ 1.76

Not writing too much on this, as its a cup game, so anything could happen! Things I find interesting are that Greuther Fürth's 10 league matches to date have all reached overs, they're scoring and conceding for fun, regularly competing in games with 4 goals and over.

Stuttgart's defence is nothing short of ropey at the moment, shipping goals for fun. Their attack seems better on the road, scoring more regularly than at home, but they've still let in 7 in their away 5 league matches to date, only keeping 1 clean sheet. 40% of their league games to date have reached overs, not a huge amount, but plenty have settled on 2 goals, and they'll hopefully see tonight as a chance to try and rediscover their scoring boots.

These sides played a friendly over the summer, no basis for comparisson I know, but Stuttgart won 5-0.

As I say, just a quick look at this (Stuttgart available @ 1.96, but with that defence...), but everything seems to point to goals.

Töpher · 29-10-2009 5:20pm

Töpher wrote: »

Greuther Fürth v VfB Stuttgart - Over 2.5 @ 1.76

:mad: 1-0

Töpher wrote: »

Arles v Dijon @ 2.18

:mad: 0-0

Thought it made sense to take a day or two away following that dreaded (and still current) run of form, trying to dig my way out of it was only realistically going to end up with the outcome of more and more red.

LSP: +9.51

.L (1 - 0) Greuther Fürth v VfB Stuttgart - Over 2.5 @ 1.76
.L (0 - 0) Arles v Dijon @ 2.18
.L (0 - 2) AGF v Nordsjælland - Over 2.5 @ 1.85
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 3.5 @ 2.18
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 1.5 in first half @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Rio Ave v Sporting Braga - HT draw @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp - draw HT/FT Metz @ 5.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp @ 1.87
.L (2 - 1) Viborg v Vejle - Under 2.5 @ 2.08
.L (2 - 1) Bordeaux v Bayern Munich - draw @ 3.45
W (3 - 0) Blackpool v Sheffield United @ 2.56
W (2 - 1) Sporting Fingal v Limerick - Over 2.5 @ 1.83
W (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth @ 1.77
.L (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth - Under 2.5 @ 1.76
W (2 - 2) Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44
W (1 - 2) Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth - Over 2.5 @ 1.78
W (2 - 0) Monaco v Lens @ 1.74
W (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 2.5 @ 1.46
.L (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52
W (1 - 2) Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 @ 1.93
.L (2 - 1) Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50
W (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63
.L (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich - Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80
W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - Under 2.5 @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08[/QUOTE]

Töpher · 29-10-2009 5:43pm

18.45 // Switzerland // Bellinzona v BSC Young Boys @ 1.73

Not massive odds, but I suppose thats to be expected when you hit this sort of form, one win will make a massive difference to my overall confidence in picking matches. I hope! :pac:

Young Boys (1st, 31pts) have already beaten Bellizona (9th [of 10], 12pts) convincingly (4-2) in the league this season, just under 3 months ago, and are having a great season to date.

Young Boys have P13 W10 D1 L2 so far this season, with the 2 defeats coming on the road to Neuchantal Xamax and Grasshopper. They've won their other 5 games on the road this season, including some matches against fellow front runners. They've hit 14 in their 7 away games this season, only drawing a blank once. They've also conceded with some regularity on the road, and all of their away games have reached overs to date. Doumbia is a real threat, hitting 13 in his 12 appearances so far this season, and plenty of others have been chipping in - so they're not solely reliant on him.

Bellizona have P6 W2 D2 L2 at home so far this season (their away record is almost a whitewash of defeats), keeping 1 clean sheet (0-0 with Grasshopper), and shipping 5 in their last 2 home games (also scoring 5). The recent victory over Zurich I think needs to be taken with somewhat of a pinch of salt, given their form in the league this season (presumably due to the continued European involvement). Aarau are the only other side they've picked up 3 points against this year. Prior to these most recent 2 games, they picked up 2 points from an available 21, shocking stuff altogether. Lustrinelli is their top scorer with 8 from 13, but 4 of these have come (in the 2 games) against Aarau, who are the only side below Bellizona in the table.

Overs is available @ 1.54 and I'm mulling over it, despite the low odds, given that neither side is hugely solid at the back, both are able to score, and the last 5 meetings between these sides have reached the mark (Young Boys winning 4 of these). Young Boys have the chance to open up a 9 point lead over Basel at the summit (after 14 games, :eek:), and I expect them to take it without having to dwell on it too much.

Morzadec · 29-10-2009 6:03pm

Your unlucky omen is back Topher. I've decided to back your Swiss bet seeing as you're due a win and I'm due a win backing you.

I've also backed 3-1 and 3-2 at quite tasty odds.

Morzadec · 29-10-2009 8:55pm

Wow back with a bang Topher, 50 minutes in and its 5-0 to YOung Boys!

The Al Lad · 29-10-2009 9:59pm

Ah sure its only 7-1...

Töpher · 29-10-2009 10:04pm

Töpher wrote: »

Bellinzona v BSC Young Boys @ 1.73

1-7

If only that could happen every day (or even week)! :pac: I'm laughing my hole off about the fact that they still couldn't keep a clean sheet! Though at that stage, they probably didn't care - but you would if you'd backed under 7.5... :pac:

LSP: +10.24

W (1 - 7) Bellinzona v BSC Young Boys @ 1.73
.L (1 - 0) Greuther Fürth v VfB Stuttgart - Over 2.5 @ 1.76
.L (0 - 0) Arles v Dijon @ 2.18
.L (0 - 2) AGF v Nordsjælland - Over 2.5 @ 1.85
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 3.5 @ 2.18
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 1.5 in first half @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Rio Ave v Sporting Braga - HT draw @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp - draw HT/FT Metz @ 5.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp @ 1.87
.L (2 - 1) Viborg v Vejle - Under 2.5 @ 2.08
.L (2 - 1) Bordeaux v Bayern Munich - draw @ 3.45
W (3 - 0) Blackpool v Sheffield United @ 2.56
W (2 - 1) Sporting Fingal v Limerick - Over 2.5 @ 1.83
W (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth @ 1.77
.L (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth - Under 2.5 @ 1.76
W (2 - 2) Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44
W (1 - 2) Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth - Over 2.5 @ 1.78
W (2 - 0) Monaco v Lens @ 1.74
W (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 2.5 @ 1.46
.L (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52
W (1 - 2) Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 @ 1.93
.L (2 - 1) Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50
W (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63
.L (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich - Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80
W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - Under 2.5 @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

Töpher · 29-10-2009 11:05pm

23.00 // Brazil; Serie A // Sport Recife v Coritiba @ 1.78 (Over 2.5 @ 1.76)

This game is going to be huge (hope I can find a decent stream)! Sport Recife are on the hunt for safety, following a disasterous season, and with a bit of luck might just do it - a win tonight would see them 3 points behind the currently 'safe' Botafogo, with 6 games to play.

Up until recently, Sport Recife were a virtually guaranteed lay, home or away (they still haven't won on the road, actually!). This all seems to have changed with a 2-0 home win over 10th placed Vitoria a few games ago, and their results have improved ten-fold since. Not too long ago their away record read P10 W0 D2 L8, it now reads P16 W0 D6 L10 - it still doesn't look great, but they've only lost 2 of their last 6 on the road, and have started to pick up increasingly valuable points on their travels. Their home record is whats really interesting, before this turning point at home to Vitoria they had a record reading P10 W3 D2 L5 - now its a much healthier P15 W7 D2 L6, they've won 4 of their last 5 home games, scoring 2 in each game they won, and keeping 2 clean sheets (they only kept 1 at home all season prior to this), losing 1-0 to Santos being the only blemish of late.

Coritiba are poor on the road, and sit in relative safety, 5 points clear of the relegation zone, thanks to a reasonable home record. Away form is P15 W2 D4 L9, so it's no surprise that they've only picked up 2 points from their last 5 away games. A win away to rock bottom Fluimenese punctuates those 2 points with 1 point from their previous 5 away games.

This game is a must win for Sport Recife, the proverbial cup final if you will (as is every game at the moment) and they've performed admirably of late and have started what they hope will turn into the great escape. The defence is still dodgy, so Coribita scoring won't be a huge surprise, and increases the chances of overs somewhat.

I'm also dropping a few pennies onto the 2-1 scoreline @ 9.80, fingers crossed.

Gavin "shels" · 30-10-2009 2:29am

Harsh, finished 1-1.

Töpher · 30-10-2009 3:52pm

Töpher wrote: »

Sport Recife v Coritiba @ 1.78 (Over 2.5 @ 1.76)

:mad: 1-1 (:mad:). Couldn't get a stream, wouldn't have been able to see it anyways, the electricity went in the stadium at half time, giving a 45 minute or so break! :pac:

:eek: That's a lotta red!

LSP: +8.24

.L (1 - 1) Sport Recife v Coritiba @ 1.78
.L (1 - 1) Sport Recife v Coritiba - Over 2.5 @ 1.76
W (1 - 7) Bellinzona v BSC Young Boys @ 1.73
.L (1 - 0) Greuther Fürth v VfB Stuttgart - Over 2.5 @ 1.76
.L (0 - 0) Arles v Dijon @ 2.18
.L (0 - 2) AGF v Nordsjælland - Over 2.5 @ 1.85
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 3.5 @ 2.18
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 1.5 in first half @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Rio Ave v Sporting Braga - HT draw @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp - draw HT/FT Metz @ 5.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp @ 1.87
.L (2 - 1) Viborg v Vejle - Under 2.5 @ 2.08
.L (2 - 1) Bordeaux v Bayern Munich - draw @ 3.45
W (3 - 0) Blackpool v Sheffield United @ 2.56
W (2 - 1) Sporting Fingal v Limerick - Over 2.5 @ 1.83
W (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth @ 1.77
.L (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth - Under 2.5 @ 1.76
W (2 - 2) Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44
W (1 - 2) Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth - Over 2.5 @ 1.78
W (2 - 0) Monaco v Lens @ 1.74
W (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 2.5 @ 1.46
.L (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52
W (1 - 2) Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 @ 1.93
.L (2 - 1) Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50
W (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63
.L (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich - Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80
W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - Under 2.5 @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

Töpher · 31-10-2009 2:51pm

15.00 // England; Premier League // Everton v Aston Villa -0 @ 2.38

This is the exact same as DNB, but DNB is @ 2.34 while the -0 handicap is @ 2.38 (both on Betfair). It won't matter if Everton win, but its a few extra pennies if Villa do the job. :pac:

Everton are on a shocking run of form at the minute, losing their last 3 competitive matches, and drawing at home with Stoke and Wolves before that. They've only kept 1 clean sheet in their 5 home games to date (against Blackburn), and look so vulnerable at the back.

Villa have already turned over Liverpool and Birmingham on the road. A shock defeat at Blackburn seperates these wins with a draw away to Wolves in another derby match. They've shown in the home games against Manchester City and Chelsea that they can give as good as they get, and I'd fancy them here based on form, before taking into account Evertons wounded list. The pace of their attack will always cause problems, and they could do some serious damage here.

I'm just going to paste the team news from the BBC below, because I think it speaks for itself. Everton are missing so many players, a tough task just got tougher. Villa have a virtually full squad to pick from, and if Warnock is out, Shorey should just slot in to his place.

BBC Sport wrote:

Everton
Suspended: None
Doubtful: Bilyaletdinov (groin), Pienaar (knee), Saha (calf), Yobo (head)
Injured: Anichebe, Arteta, Jagielka, Neville & Vaughan (all knee), Osman (foot)

Aston Villa
Suspended: None Doubtful: Warnock (ankle)
Injured: Davies (shoulder), Downing (foot)

I've also gone for Villa outright @ 3.35, but the DNB gives that extra security at still great odds.

Töpher · 31-10-2009 6:43pm

Töpher wrote: »

Everton v Aston Villa -0 @ 2.38

1-1. Stake returned, no loss at least!

LSP: +8.24

.D (1 - 1) Everton v Aston Villa -0 @ 2.38
.L (1 - 1) Sport Recife v Coritiba @ 1.78
.L (1 - 1) Sport Recife v Coritiba - Over 2.5 @ 1.76
W (1 - 7) Bellinzona v BSC Young Boys @ 1.73
.L (1 - 0) Greuther Fürth v VfB Stuttgart - Over 2.5 @ 1.76
.L (0 - 0) Arles v Dijon @ 2.18
.L (0 - 2) AGF v Nordsjælland - Over 2.5 @ 1.85
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 3.5 @ 2.18
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 1.5 in first half @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Rio Ave v Sporting Braga - HT draw @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp - draw HT/FT Metz @ 5.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp @ 1.87
.L (2 - 1) Viborg v Vejle - Under 2.5 @ 2.08
.L (2 - 1) Bordeaux v Bayern Munich - draw @ 3.45
W (3 - 0) Blackpool v Sheffield United @ 2.56
W (2 - 1) Sporting Fingal v Limerick - Over 2.5 @ 1.83
W (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth @ 1.77
.L (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth - Under 2.5 @ 1.76
W (2 - 2) Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44
W (1 - 2) Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth - Over 2.5 @ 1.78
W (2 - 0) Monaco v Lens @ 1.74
W (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 2.5 @ 1.46
.L (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52
W (1 - 2) Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 @ 1.93
.L (2 - 1) Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50
W (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63
.L (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich - Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80
W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - Under 2.5 @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

candlegrease · 01-11-2009 4:03pm

Topher, who do you bet with?

Töpher · 03-11-2009 12:45pm

Pretty much always on Betfair, occassionally on BWIN or Paddy Power, but 99% of the time it'd be on Betfair.

Töpher · 03-11-2009 1:38pm

19.45 // England; Blue Square Premier // Kettering Town v Wrexham @ 1.99

		Pos	Pts	Pld	W	D	L
Kettering	3	34	17	10	4	3
Wrexham		16	21	16	6	3	7

				P	W	D	L	
Kettering	[@ home]	8	4	3	1	
Wrexham		[@ away]	7	2	1	4

Kettering's sole loss at home was to AFC Wimbledon, at the start of the season nearly 3 months ago. Asides from that, only 3 teams have stopped Kettering taking all the points on offer at home (Oxford, Luton, and Stevenage Borough), and all of these teams are currently occupying playoff or automatic promotion positions.

Wrexham will be playing their 4th away game in a row, in 2 weeks, tonight (one of these was a cup game). They've kept clean sheets in each of them so far, which is unusual given how they've conceded regularly on the road prior to this. They've also only scored 2 in the 3 games, and the cup game was away to several leagues lower opposition in the form of the new Halifax Town (though they are on good form). The only teams Wrexham have beaten on the road are Forest Green and Ebbsfleet, who would be the bottom 2 clubs were it not for Chesters' points deduction.

There's no denying Wrexham's current form is quite solid, but so is Ketterings, winning 5 of the last 6 (1-1 with Stevenage being the exception) and scoring in the last 7 matches.

Neither side has much in the way of injuries, though Kettering are waiting for their captain to under-go a fitness test.

Likely to be a low scoring affair, Wrexham have failed to score in 7 of their 16 games to date (unders @ 1.69 looks alright), but I'm hopeful Kettering can grind out a 1-0 or 2-0 victory to keep up the pace at the top, and (as good as) evens is too tempting to overlook.

DeadSkin · 03-11-2009 8:55pm

Kettering off to a good start 1 up

Töpher · 03-11-2009 10:54pm

Töpher wrote: »

Kettering Town v Wrexham @ 1.99

:mad: 2-2. Aghast! Penalty in stoppage time saving Kettering from defeat.

Eight losses from ten now, and only the one win, pretty diabolical stuff to be honest. I know its swings and roundabouts, and hopefully the form will turn at some stage, but this is horrendously demoralising! :rolleyes:

LSP: +7.24

.L (2 - 2) Kettering Town v Wrexham @ 1.99
.D (1 - 1) Everton v Aston Villa -0 @ 2.38
.L (1 - 1) Sport Recife v Coritiba @ 1.78
.L (1 - 1) Sport Recife v Coritiba - Over 2.5 @ 1.76
W (1 - 7) Bellinzona v BSC Young Boys @ 1.73
.L (1 - 0) Greuther Fürth v VfB Stuttgart - Over 2.5 @ 1.76
.L (0 - 0) Arles v Dijon @ 2.18
.L (0 - 2) AGF v Nordsjælland - Over 2.5 @ 1.85
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 3.5 @ 2.18
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 1.5 in first half @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Rio Ave v Sporting Braga - HT draw @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp - draw HT/FT Metz @ 5.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp @ 1.87
.L (2 - 1) Viborg v Vejle - Under 2.5 @ 2.08
.L (2 - 1) Bordeaux v Bayern Munich - draw @ 3.45
W (3 - 0) Blackpool v Sheffield United @ 2.56
W (2 - 1) Sporting Fingal v Limerick - Over 2.5 @ 1.83
W (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth @ 1.77
.L (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth - Under 2.5 @ 1.76
W (2 - 2) Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44
W (1 - 2) Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth - Over 2.5 @ 1.78
W (2 - 0) Monaco v Lens @ 1.74
W (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 2.5 @ 1.46
.L (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52
W (1 - 2) Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 @ 1.93
.L (2 - 1) Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50
W (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63
.L (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich - Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80
W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - Under 2.5 @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

Töpher · 05-11-2009 11:52pm

19.45 // Holland // Groningen v Heracles @ 3.90 (Heracles -0 [DNB] @ 2.59)

Groningen's (16th, 10pts) home record is currently P6 W1 D1 L4, whilst Heracles' (6th, 20pts) away record is P6 W4 D1 L1.

Heracles have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 league matches, and 4 in their last 5 away league matches, whilst Groningen have failed to score in their last 3 league matches. Heracles' current form is P5 W4 D0 L1 (to Twente), and Groningen are looking at P5 W1 D2 L2, with the last 4 being the draws and losses, and the win being 1-0 at home over Vitesse, who currently have 1 point more than them and sit in 14th (their only other win this season was another 1-0 over 15th place Heerenveen).

I can't find any team news to suggest Heracles are missing any key players for this, so can't quite fathom the size of the odds here (Skybet are only offering them @ 2.00), so will be taking some.

Töpher · 06-11-2009 10:34pm

Töpher wrote: »

Groningen v Heracles @ 3.90 (Heracles -0 [DNB] @ 2.59)

:mad: 4-1; not a clue what happened there, but I think that's my cue to exit!

LSP: +5.24

.L (4 - 1) Groningen v Heracles @ 3.90
.L (4 - 1) Groningen v Heracles -0 @ 2.59
.L (2 - 2) Kettering Town v Wrexham @ 1.99
.D (1 - 1) Everton v Aston Villa -0 @ 2.38
.L (1 - 1) Sport Recife v Coritiba @ 1.78
.L (1 - 1) Sport Recife v Coritiba - Over 2.5 @ 1.76
W (1 - 7) Bellinzona v BSC Young Boys @ 1.73
.L (1 - 0) Greuther Fürth v VfB Stuttgart - Over 2.5 @ 1.76
.L (0 - 0) Arles v Dijon @ 2.18
.L (0 - 2) AGF v Nordsjælland - Over 2.5 @ 1.85
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 3.5 @ 2.18
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 1.5 in first half @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Rio Ave v Sporting Braga - HT draw @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp - draw HT/FT Metz @ 5.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp @ 1.87
.L (2 - 1) Viborg v Vejle - Under 2.5 @ 2.08
.L (2 - 1) Bordeaux v Bayern Munich - draw @ 3.45
W (3 - 0) Blackpool v Sheffield United @ 2.56
W (2 - 1) Sporting Fingal v Limerick - Over 2.5 @ 1.83
W (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth @ 1.77
.L (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth - Under 2.5 @ 1.76
W (2 - 2) Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44
W (1 - 2) Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth - Over 2.5 @ 1.78
W (2 - 0) Monaco v Lens @ 1.74
W (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 2.5 @ 1.46
.L (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52
W (1 - 2) Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 @ 1.93
.L (2 - 1) Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50
W (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63
.L (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich - Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80
W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - Under 2.5 @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

MrKingsley · 12-11-2009 11:19am

Shame its ended there topher. Only ever backed the losers but some great spots in there. Fair play. Hope your keeping your winners to yourself

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