Töpher's Log

Hello0909 · 17-10-2009 9:49pm

rite have €20 and could do with a few winnings..

wat do u reckon out of tomorros and monday games....maybe a treble or fourfold??

srmufc · 18-10-2009 12:39pm

good tips mate

What dya think about Bilbao this evening? I also fancy Villareal away to Xerez

Good odds on both

Töpher · 18-10-2009 2:10pm

Coludn't make up my mind on either to be honest, srmufc. Villareal should be capable of taking the win, but they've only got 3 points from 18 available for a reason, and I'm not sure 0-0 at home with Espanyol is the turning point their season needs. Bilbao could go either way, they've been conceding alot lately, 10 in the last 5 matches, so will probably be needing to score at least twice to win it, so if it were me I'd probably be looking at overs. But honestly I'm not sure on either.

Hello0909, got nothing concrete for today or tomorrow yet, still looking about though.

Töpher · 18-10-2009 2:34pm

14.45; Greece; Super League;Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52 (Under 2.5 @ 1.46)

These sides always seem to fight out tough low-scoring contests, of their previous 6 meetings, all have reached unders, and 4 have failed to see more than 1 goal scored. The last 10 meetings have seen 8 unders, 6 of these under 1.5.

Both sides have struggled to pick up points domestically, and with any luck today should see both sides aiming to just add to the board without losing allowing for another tight affair.

Xanthi's last 6 competitive matches have all been unders. One match reached the daunting heights of a 1-1 scoreline, while the last 5 in a row have failed to see more than 1 scored. This has included a tricky away tie to giants Panathinaikos. Their 6 league matches to date have only seen 7 goals, F3 A4.

Larissa's matches have been less tight this year, but 3 of their 6 matches this season have been unders, 2 comfortably at 0-0. They lost 4-0 away to Panathinaikos in their last match before the international break, and will be looking to tighten up the defence to try to guarantee at least a point at home today. They've only scored 3 goals all season, though these have all been at home, so hopefully won't pose a huge threat to the Xanthi backline.

I know its a late call, I had my reasoning typed up a little bit earlier and Mozilla crashed on me. Grrr!

Töpher · 18-10-2009 3:29pm

16.00; France. Ligue 1;Monaco v Lens @ 1.74

Monaco (5th, 15pts) are at home to Lens (18th, 8pts) in this one, and I'm going for them in this one, depsite their less than impressive record against Lens at home.

Monaco's home form this year has been great (P4 W3 D0 L1), where the one loss was in the last match, and to an injury time goal for Saint Ettiene. They followed this up by going away to 4th place Marseille and handing them a 2-1 defeat. They've picked up a few defeats on their travels, but none by more than 1 goal, so they're looking handy enough this year so far. The 3 wins at home all included clean sheets, which is impressive.

Lens' away form has been less than impressive, P4 W1 D0 L3, with the one win being away to Grenoble nearly 2 months ago, who have recorded 0 points from 8 games played (so that's nothing to write home about really). Since that match, they've played 5 games in total, and picked up 2 points (both at home), the other 3 matches were all defeats (2 on the road, 1 at home [all be it to Lyon]). They've only kept 1 clean sheet all season, and that was at home (against Auxerre), 8 weeks ago.

Monaco picked themselves up from the disappointment of losing extremely late at home a few weeks ago well on the road, and I expect them to fully right that wrong in front of their home fans today. Monaco's defence is solid, especially at home, their strikers haven't scored as many as would probably be liked, but the midfield have been chipping in with lots. Lens seem unable to stop conceding, and although they're not having huge difficulties in front of goal (8 goals in 8 games) they've only scored 1 in their last 4, and with Monaco's defence at home being able to shut the door so effectively, it's hard to see that changing drastically today.

Töpher · 18-10-2009 4:40pm

Töpher wrote: »

Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52 (Under 2.5 @ 1.46)

:mad: 2-0 (:D) - bleedin' 86th minute goal undoing the cheeky under 1.5 goals. That's two late goals in two afternoons botching things,

. The under 2.5 means it wasn't a total whitewash though.

Monaco 1-0 up approaching half time against Lens, so fingers crossed that'll add some green.

LSP: +5.41

W (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 2.5 @ 1.46
.L (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52
W (1 - 2) Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 @ 1.93
.L (2 - 1) Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50
W (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63
.L (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich - Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80
W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - Under 2.5 @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

Töpher · 18-10-2009 5:57pm

Töpher wrote: »

Monaco v Lens @ 1.74

2-0. Monaco keeping a clean sheet, and both goals coming from a midfielder. Delightful stuff.

LSP: +6.17

W (2 - 0) Monaco v Lens @ 1.74
W (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 2.5 @ 1.46
.L (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52
W (1 - 2) Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 @ 1.93
.L (2 - 1) Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50
W (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63
.L (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich - Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80
W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - Under 2.5 @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

Töpher · 19-10-2009 3:44am

19.45; France; Ligue 2; Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44

This isn't the highest scoring of fixtures historically, but given both teams recent lack of form at the back, I'm heading for the overs in this.

Nantes (2nd, 18pts) have been great at home so far this season, P4 W4 D0 L0, F12 A4. They've (obviously, given that they've won them all!) scored in every game, but have conceded in 3 of the fixtures also. This ties in with their away form, where they've scored and conceded in 4 of the 5 matches, and just conceded in the sole other fixture (so no goalless matches, yet). Each match at home has reached overs within 60 minutes (!), with the matches averaging 4 goals a game at the moment. Top scorer so far is Malian international striker N'Diaye, with 5 in 8 games played. Goalkeeper Kamenár was given a straight red in the last minute of their last match, and so should be forced to sit this one out, which can only help to unsettle the backline further.

Metz (12th, 12pts) aren't doing too brightly on the road, P4 W0 D1 L3, F2 A8. They've conceded in every away match, and scored in 2 of the 4. They've been better at home, keeping 3 clean sheets and conceding 3 in 5 matches, F6 A3. 2 of their 4 away matches have reached overs, with the other 2 hitting just under with 2 goals in each.

With Nantes unable to keep much in the way of clean sheets (the only match this season where they did, they scored 5), they may well have to score a few to be sure of the points here, especially with their main keeper suspended, and given the discrepancy in odds between home win (@ 1.84) and overs (@ 2.44) that's where I'm putting my money.

Töpher · 19-10-2009 4:02am

19.15; Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth - Over 2.5 @ 1.78

Where to start with this one... Neither side has seen a goal free game yet this season. Union Berlin had a few 1-0's at the start of the season as they settled into life back in Bundesliga 2 following several seasons in the lower regions. Greuther Fürth have had overs in every match this season, their 8 games so far this season have seen F17 A15... 32 goals in 8 games.

Strangely, looking at Greuther Fürth's stats, any time they've kept a clean sheet this season they've scored 4 goals, and any time they've failed to score they've conceded 4 (this accounts for 3 of the 8 games - any unquoted score is @ 8.60 on Betfair). An awful lot of the goals in their seem to come in the second half, so I won't be fretting too much if this is 0-0 at half time. Their lowest scoring matches this season have been two 2-1's (the other 6 games all reached over 3.5 too). On the road, the 4 matches have seen 16 goals, F7 A9.

Following the tight start to the season, Union Berlin have now had overs in 3 of their last 5 games (4 from 8 for season to date), including their last 2 home matches, with the other 2 games being 1-1's away from home.

I can't call a winner in this, I'd like to call Union Berlin (@ 2.22), but the wheels came off badly in their last match in what they'll feel should have been a winnable game at MSV Duisburg. Greuther Fürth have only won once on the road, to lower table opposition, but it was 3-1. Every other away match has been a loss (2-1, 3-1, 4-0), but with the erratic strikepower they seem to have, anything is possible.

Overs definitely seems like the safest option in this, and at practically 4/5, I fail to see why not.

Average-Ro · 19-10-2009 8:42pm

Töpher wrote: »

19.45; France; Ligue 2; Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44

This isn't the highest scoring of fixtures historically, but given both teams recent lack of form at the back, I'm heading for the overs in this.

Nantes (2nd, 18pts) have been great at home so far this season, P4 W4 D0 L0, F12 A4. They've (obviously, given that they've won them all!) scored in every game, but have conceded in 3 of the fixtures also. This ties in with their away form, where they've scored and conceded in 4 of the 5 matches, and just conceded in the sole other fixture (so no goalless matches, yet). Each match at home has reached overs within 60 minutes (!), with the matches averaging 4 goals a game at the moment. Top scorer so far is Malian international striker N'Diaye, with 5 in 8 games played. Goalkeeper Kamenár was given a straight red in the last minute of their last match, and so should be forced to sit this one out, which can only help to unsettle the backline further.

Metz (12th, 12pts) aren't doing too brightly on the road, P4 W0 D1 L3, F2 A8. They've conceded in every away match, and scored in 2 of the 4. They've been better at home, keeping 3 clean sheets and conceding 3 in 5 matches, F6 A3. 2 of their 4 away matches have reached overs, with the other 2 hitting just under with 2 goals in each.

With Nantes unable to keep much in the way of clean sheets (the only match this season where they did, they scored 5), they may well have to score a few to be sure of the points here, especially with their main keeper suspended, and given the discrepancy in odds between home win (@ 1.84) and overs (@ 2.44) that's where I'm putting my money.

Thanks for that Topher! Has money on it and it's 1-2 at half time.

srmufc · 19-10-2009 9:29pm

Again, some sterling tips and i should have heeded your advice and stayed away from Bilbao last night;)

L'prof · 19-10-2009 9:37pm

Töpher wrote: »

19.45; France; Ligue 2; Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44

Töpher wrote: »

19.15; Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth - Over 2.5 @ 1.78

Nice one, thanks

dazzday · 19-10-2009 11:00pm

On fire dude! keep it up!

Töpher · 20-10-2009 7:29am

Töpher wrote: »

Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44

2-2

Töpher wrote: »

Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth - Over 2.5 @ 1.78

1-2

LSP: +8.39

W (2 - 2) Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44
W (1 - 2) Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth - Over 2.5 @ 1.78
W (2 - 0) Monaco v Lens @ 1.74
W (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 2.5 @ 1.46
.L (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52
W (1 - 2) Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 @ 1.93
.L (2 - 1) Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50
W (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63
.L (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich - Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80
W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - Under 2.5 @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

Morzadec · 20-10-2009 3:56pm

Well inevitably I missed all your winning bets! Have your eye on anything for any of the midweek matches?

Töpher · 20-10-2009 4:35pm

19.45 // Blackpool v Sheffield United @ 2.56

These sides are only seperated by 2 points after 12 matches, but Sheffield United have some fitness worries, with 8 players unavailable through injury (and one Irish goalkeeper for, ahem, other reasons). That makes for shocking reading (ya gotta love the BBC's spin on things!) but looking into it some of these players haven't played at all this season, so shouldn't factor in a huge amount - or at all (though they've certainly had an effect on the season to date, it shouldn't vary much for tonight). They are, though, missing their top scorer Ward, and near-ever present midfielders Montgomery and Harper - so those should have a reasonable degree of effect. Striker Ched Evans is doubtful, but nothing definite either way. They're also apparently resigned to losing defender Kilgallon in January, as he is refusing to sign the new deal offered to him, so his head may be elsewhere. This article quotes Blackwell as saying they currently have only 13 players available (although it was for their last match, things have only gotten worse since with none returning, and on loan Stoke defender Davies getting injured).

Blackpools home record reads P6 W4 D2 L0 (F10 A2), which is pretty impressive. What stands out even more is that the first 2 home matches of the season were draws, and they've since won 4 in a row (3-0, 2-1, 2-0, 2-0), scoring at least 2 on each occasion. In the last 5 home matches they've keep 4 clean sheets, only conceding 1 goal to Newcastle. According to the BBC site, Holloway will likely be starting with the same side that comfortably beat second from bottom Plymouth 2-0 at the weekend. Their away form has been less impressive, but they're damn good at home.

Sheffield United's away record reads P6 W2 D1 L3 (F9 A10), which doesn't jump out as immediately poor. However, the 3 losses have all been in a row now, and are sandwiched by a derby win at home (that they tried to throw away) and 2 draws at home to weak oppostion. They've conceded in their last 6 matches, and the last 3 away games have seen them ship 8, though they've also scored in their last 5 away games (overs are @ 2.06). Factor in the 7 they've conceded in their last 3 home games, and the defence is looking extremely porous.

All things considered, Blackpool are a huge price here and will be looking to keep their fine run at home going against a severely depleted United side, who will hopefully buckle.

Töpher · 20-10-2009 4:41pm

Morzadec wrote: »

Well inevitably I missed all your winning bets! Have your eye on anything for any of the midweek matches?

One above (hopefully one or two more before the day is out), hopefully it fares kinder to you that the last few, if you decide to go for it.

Gillington · 20-10-2009 4:42pm

Good call,was looking at Blackpool thinking that was an awesome price at home,Sheff Utd are struggling recently.

Töpher · 20-10-2009 5:41pm

19.45 // Bristol City v Plymouth @ 1.77 (Under 2.5 @ 1.76)

Having looked at Plymouth's away stats of P6 W1 D1 L4 (F6 A12), scoring in all but one and conceding in each, I was hoping to see Bristol have similar goal totals to justify a nab of overs @ 2.30 - but alas, their home record is very tight, but it is crackin' (P6 W4 D2 L0, F8 A3), which makes picking them for the win quite straightforward.

Bristol City already boast home victories over Middlesbrough, QPR, and Crystal Palace this season. They've kept clean sheets in 3 of their 6 games, and the 2 draws were actually set for 1-0 triumphs until they conceded in injury time (that would have given them 6 wins from 6). One of these was in the last match against Peterborough, and Bristol will be out to get back to winning ways against a struggling Plymouth side to ensure 4 points from the relegation threatened (so far) sides at home, when they would have originally been looking for 6. The only concern is that they probably haven't scored enough at home, despite scoring in each game - hence I'm also going to look at the unders market, as 1-0 would not be a surprise here and it covers the draws in the same region.

Plymouth have lost 4 of their last 5 on the road, with the only points being from a 2-1 over Peterborough, who they sit alongside on 8pts in the relegation zone after 12 matches. As mentioned above, they've scored in most of them, but they failed to in their last match (a 2-0 defeat to Blackpool) and handed in a performance that (according to the BBC) leaves manager Sturrock set to 'freshen things' for tonight, which is means some regular starters may be looking at being benched this evening. I'm making an assumption here, but I reckon if any of these fresher players were in any way better than the current starters (who've churned out a dismal season so far) they'd have gotten a look in already, so I can't see them taking a leap in terms of quality here.

4 of Plymouths last 5 away matches have also seen them concede in injury time or the last 5 minutes, so I'll be not be getting worried about the home win until the final whistle blows.

Töpher · 20-10-2009 6:06pm

19.45 // Sporting Fingal v Limerick - Over 2.5 @ 1.83

Fingal will be all out for this one as the season draws to a close, hoping to leapfrog a deteriorating Shelbourne side into second place to ensure home advantage for the promotion playoff with the Reds, over whom they (upsettingly) have a fine record in Santry.

Limerick are a hard side to read, varying between great results, and downright shocking ones. They have a real danger man in Stephen O'Flynn, and have scored in 11 of their last 12 matches (all 11 reached overs, the other was a 2-0 defeat), so will always pose a threat to any side that fails to put them away. To add to this, they've also conceded in all 12 of those matches.

Limerick picked up a point in Santry earlier this season with a 1-1 draw, but Fingal got their revenge later in the season, tanking them 4-1 away in Limerick.

Fingal have similarly hit the goal trail lately, scoring 12 and conceding 9 in their last 4 games. Following the disappointment of conceding 2 late on to Shelbourne a week or so ago (having gone 2-0 up after going down to 10 men) they went down to Longford and showed what they can do, winning 4-0 away from home.

Fingal should take this, and have the strike power (and new found motivation) with the likes of Byrne and Zayed to do so, but with Quigley at the back being prone to ridiculous clangers with a degree of semi-regularity despite being an otherwise fantastic keeper, they'll always be penetrable at the back. With Limerick picking up results against Shelbourne (3-3) and Waterford (2-1) lately, it gives enough cause for concern to avoid Fingal outright @ 1.5 - but given both sides form at either extremity of the pitch, this game should provide goals, and here's hoping it does.

srmufc · 20-10-2009 9:39pm

Töpher wrote: »

19.45 // Bristol City v Plymouth @ 1.77 (Under 2.5 @ 1.76)

Having looked at Plymouth's away stats of P6 W1 D1 L4 (F6 A12), scoring in all but one and conceding in each, I was hoping to see Bristol have similar goal totals to justify a nab of overs @ 2.30 - but alas, their home record is very tight, but it is crackin' (P6 W4 D2 L0, F8 A3), which makes picking them for the win quite straightforward.

Bristol City already boast home victories over Middlesbrough, QPR, and Crystal Palace this season. They've kept clean sheets in 3 of their 6 games, and the 2 draws were actually set for 1-0 triumphs until they conceded in injury time (that would have given them 6 wins from 6). One of these was in the last match against Peterborough, and Bristol will be out to get back to winning ways against a struggling Plymouth side to ensure 4 points from the relegation threatened (so far) sides at home, when they would have originally been looking for 6. The only concern is that they probably haven't scored enough at home, despite scoring in each game - hence I'm also going to look at the unders market, as 1-0 would not be a surprise here and it covers the draws in the same region.

Plymouth have lost 4 of their last 5 on the road, with the only points being from a 2-1 over Peterborough, who they sit alongside on 8pts in the relegation zone after 12 matches. As mentioned above, they've scored in most of them, but they failed to in their last match (a 2-0 defeat to Blackpool) and handed in a performance that (according to the BBC) leaves manager Sturrock set to 'freshen things' for tonight, which is means some regular starters may be looking at being benched this evening. I'm making an assumption here, but I reckon if any of these fresher players were in any way better than the current starters (who've churned out a dismal season so far) they'd have gotten a look in already, so I can't see them taking a leap in terms of quality here.

4 of Plymouths last 5 away matches have also seen them concede in injury time or the last 5 minutes, so I'll be not be getting worried about the home win until the final whistle blows.

4 goals in 6 mins:D

Well done on the other two. Had Blackpool backed.

Töpher · 20-10-2009 10:00pm

Töpher wrote: »

19.45 // Blackpool v Sheffield United @ 2.56

3-0

Töpher wrote: »

19.45 // Bristol City v Plymouth @ 1.77 (Under 2.5 @ 1.76)

3-1 (:mad:) A barmy few minutes at the end of that match!

Töpher wrote: »

19.45 // Sporting Fingal v Limerick - Over 2.5 @ 1.83

2-1 (although the overall result is a

, damn them!)

Guess 3 from 4 ain't too bad.

LSP: +10.55

W (3 - 0) Blackpool v Sheffield United @ 2.56
W (2 - 1) Sporting Fingal v Limerick - Over 2.5 @ 1.83
W (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth @ 1.77
.L (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth - Under 2.5 @ 1.76
W (2 - 2) Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44
W (1 - 2) Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth - Over 2.5 @ 1.78
W (2 - 0) Monaco v Lens @ 1.74
W (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 2.5 @ 1.46
.L (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52
W (1 - 2) Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 @ 1.93
.L (2 - 1) Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50
W (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63
.L (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich - Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80
W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - Under 2.5 @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

Headshot · 20-10-2009 10:02pm

thank you very much topher, you are on a good run, i hope it last

Töpher · 21-10-2009 2:05pm

19.45 // Bordeaux v Bayern Munich - draw @ 3.45

I was going to avoid tonights matches following the madness in the Champions League last night, but the more I look at this, the more I like it. I think that come the end of the evening, 3 teams will be sitting on 5 points in this group.

Both sides have been extremely tight at the back of late. Or more so, Bordeaux had been, but have shipped 4 in their last 2 matches, scoring only the once - but these were on the road. Prior to this they kept 5 domestic clean sheets, and conceded 1 goal to Juventus in their 2 Champions League fixtures to date - they've yet to concede at home this season, and will be looking to ensure they tighten up again and carry on this record. Bayern have only conceded 4 in their last 9 competitive games at the moment (1 in their last 3), and are beginning to show signs that the leaky defence punishing them at the start of the season has been dealt with.

Bayern are to play without key attacking threats Ribery, Robben and Ollic tonight, and will be looking to ensure at least a point is picked up in France tonight, so will be looking to at least keep a clean sheet. Luca Toni could well get the nod up front, but he's only played 1 competitive fixture so far this season, so match fitness may be a slight issue for him.

The creative Gourcuff is likely to start for Bordeaux, but he is not match fit, and will probably fade and fail to see out the match. Otherwise Bordeaux have no concerns.

I'm also throwing a small bet on 0-0 @ 11.0 - fingers crossed.

Headshot · 21-10-2009 2:08pm

real madrid v AC Milan 4/9 (iirc) is also a good bet I think

I hoping both score

Töpher · 22-10-2009 6:38am

Töpher wrote: »

Bordeaux v Bayern Munich - draw @ 3.45

:mad: 2-1.

Always going to be up against it in this one, with an own goal and a red card by the half hour mark! You can't factor for that, but if anything it's reiterated to that no bets would have been the right call, and I'll have to learn from it.

LSP: +9.55

.L (2 - 1) Bordeaux v Bayern Munich - draw @ 3.476
W (3 - 0) Blackpool v Sheffield United @ 2.56
W (2 - 1) Sporting Fingal v Limerick - Over 2.5 @ 1.83
W (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth @ 1.77
.L (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth - Under 2.5 @ 1.76
W (2 - 2) Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44
W (1 - 2) Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth - Over 2.5 @ 1.78
W (2 - 0) Monaco v Lens @ 1.74
W (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 2.5 @ 1.46
.L (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52
W (1 - 2) Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 @ 1.93
.L (2 - 1) Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50
W (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63
.L (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich - Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80
W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - Under 2.5 @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

Töpher · 22-10-2009 3:18pm

17.30 // Denmark; Division 1 // Viborg v Vejle - Under 2.5 @ 2.08

Massive odds on the home side (Viborg, 10th, 10pts) here (@ 3.25), but I'm going to let them slide because I'd be concerned about their strikepower and therefore ability to take this outright.

Viborg have scored only 9 goals in 10 league matches (with only 4 players chipping in so far). Their defence however is in great form. They've conceded 8 in 10 in the league, which may not initially look the best, but their last 5 competitive matches (1 was a cup game) have seen them concede only 1 goal - to add to this, 4 of those 5 games were away from home, which I find quite impressive. 7 of the 10 league games have been unders, with only the first game of the season reaching overs at home. The cup game was a 4-0 win, away to lower league Rishoj, so is somewhat of an anomally. The home record is currently P4 W2 D2, F4 A2.

Vejle (7th, 18pts) have been involved in more high scoring games than Viborg this season, with their totals after 10 matches reading F19 A11. That said, 5 of the (10) games have still been unders, and 3 of these were (from 4 games) on the road, and 3 of their last 5 in total have been under. Their away form reads P4 W2 D2, F6 A4 (a 3-2 win away to Thisted boosting the goal totals here). They lost 3-1 at home to Fyn recently, and obviously focusing on tightening up at the back followed this up with a 1-0 home win over 3rd place Horsens.

Vejle are favourites here, but they'll face a tough task against a really tough and in-form defence. Asides from that one game, none of their away matches have seen them score or concede more than once per game. With Viborg scoring less than 2 on 8 of their 10 outings so far, its hard to see them hitting the goal trail tonight.

Either side could well take this 1-0, and I don't see why it couldn't be the home side. Viborg have won their last 3 home meetings with Vejle (but the last of these was 3 years ago when both sides were in the Superliga).

I'm sticking with the unders at just over evens, because I think it's hard to justify any other outcome based on what I can see.

Gavin "shels" · 22-10-2009 6:16pm

2-1 to Viborg and it's just half-time, hard luck, glad I only seen this tip now.:p

Töpher · 23-10-2009 3:05pm

Töpher wrote: »

Viborg v Vejle - Under 2.5 @ 2.08

:mad: 2-1. Viborg scored twice in 5 first half minutes, always going to be tough after that!

LSP: +8.55

.L (2 - 1) Viborg v Vejle - Under 2.5 @ 2.08
.L (2 - 1) Bordeaux v Bayern Munich - draw @ 3.45
W (3 - 0) Blackpool v Sheffield United @ 2.56
W (2 - 1) Sporting Fingal v Limerick - Over 2.5 @ 1.83
W (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth @ 1.77
.L (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth - Under 2.5 @ 1.76
W (2 - 2) Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44
W (1 - 2) Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth - Over 2.5 @ 1.78
W (2 - 0) Monaco v Lens @ 1.74
W (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 2.5 @ 1.46
.L (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52
W (1 - 2) Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 @ 1.93
.L (2 - 1) Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50
W (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63
.L (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich - Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80
W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - Under 2.5 @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

Töpher · 23-10-2009 6:29pm

19.00 // France; Ligue 2 // Metz v Guingamp @ 1.87 (Draw/Metz @ 5.10)

Odds are this will be a tight match, but I'm hoping that the home side take it.

Metz (11th, 13pts) have a reasonable record at home so far, P5 W3 D2 L0, F7 A3. I suppose the main concern here would be that they haven't scored enough, but they have scored 5 in their last 2 matches and may have turned a slight corner up front. They've kept 3 clean sheets in their 5 matches at home, and seem relatively solid at the back. They struggled at home against bottom placed Bastia (1-0) and drew with Tours and Dijon which aren't impressive results either. They followed these poor results up with home wins over Ligue 1 side Valenciennes in the cup, and 4th placed Laval 3-2 (overturning a 2-0 deficit in the process), which are a definite step in the right direction.

Guingamp (13th, 11pts) have been very poor on the road this season (also off form at home, currently 7 games without a win in the league), only registering 1 goal scored in their 5 away league matches to date (and that was on the opening day of the season in a 1-0 win over Ajaccio). Since then, they've played 4 more away matches, drawing 0-0 with Istres, and losing the other 3 all 2-0 (with all the goals being scored in the second half). Their attack seems very weak, only scoring 7 goals in their 10 games to date (and only one of these on the road). The defence is stronger at home than away, away they've conceded 6 of the 9 that they've shipped so far.

All but one of Metz's home games have been 0-0 at half time, and all of Guingamps away matches have been 0-0 at half time, so the HT result of draw @ 2.06 looks tasty too (I'm going to go for HT/FT of draw/Metz @ 5.10 for some added interest). Unders is @ 1.60, but I've been unlucky with the most of my unders picks of late, so I'm going to avoid it, especially at those odds.

From what I can find out, neither side has much in the way of injury trouble, so with Guingamp being weak on the road, and with Metz starting to find the net in recent weeks (against currently much higher placed teams Nantes and Laval), I'm hoping the home side take the points here.

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