Töpher's Log

Gavin "shels"

Harsh, finished 1-1.

Töpher

Töpher wrote: »

Sport Recife v Coritiba @ 1.78 (Over 2.5 @ 1.76)

:mad: 1-1 (:mad:). Couldn't get a stream, wouldn't have been able to see it anyways, the electricity went in the stadium at half time, giving a 45 minute or so break! :pac:

:eek: That's a lotta red!

LSP: +8.24

.L (1 - 1) Sport Recife v Coritiba @ 1.78
.L (1 - 1) Sport Recife v Coritiba - Over 2.5 @ 1.76
W (1 - 7) Bellinzona v BSC Young Boys @ 1.73
.L (1 - 0) Greuther Fürth v VfB Stuttgart - Over 2.5 @ 1.76
.L (0 - 0) Arles v Dijon @ 2.18
.L (0 - 2) AGF v Nordsjælland - Over 2.5 @ 1.85
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 3.5 @ 2.18
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 1.5 in first half @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Rio Ave v Sporting Braga - HT draw @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp - draw HT/FT Metz @ 5.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp @ 1.87
.L (2 - 1) Viborg v Vejle - Under 2.5 @ 2.08
.L (2 - 1) Bordeaux v Bayern Munich - draw @ 3.45
W (3 - 0) Blackpool v Sheffield United @ 2.56
W (2 - 1) Sporting Fingal v Limerick - Over 2.5 @ 1.83
W (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth @ 1.77
.L (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth - Under 2.5 @ 1.76
W (2 - 2) Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44
W (1 - 2) Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth - Over 2.5 @ 1.78
W (2 - 0) Monaco v Lens @ 1.74
W (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 2.5 @ 1.46
.L (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52
W (1 - 2) Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 @ 1.93
.L (2 - 1) Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50
W (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63
.L (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich - Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80
W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - Under 2.5 @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

Töpher

15.00 // England; Premier League // Everton v Aston Villa -0 @ 2.38

This is the exact same as DNB, but DNB is @ 2.34 while the -0 handicap is @ 2.38 (both on Betfair). It won't matter if Everton win, but its a few extra pennies if Villa do the job. :pac:

Everton are on a shocking run of form at the minute, losing their last 3 competitive matches, and drawing at home with Stoke and Wolves before that. They've only kept 1 clean sheet in their 5 home games to date (against Blackburn), and look so vulnerable at the back.

Villa have already turned over Liverpool and Birmingham on the road. A shock defeat at Blackburn seperates these wins with a draw away to Wolves in another derby match. They've shown in the home games against Manchester City and Chelsea that they can give as good as they get, and I'd fancy them here based on form, before taking into account Evertons wounded list. The pace of their attack will always cause problems, and they could do some serious damage here.

I'm just going to paste the team news from the BBC below, because I think it speaks for itself. Everton are missing so many players, a tough task just got tougher. Villa have a virtually full squad to pick from, and if Warnock is out, Shorey should just slot in to his place.

BBC Sport wrote:

Everton
Suspended: None
Doubtful: Bilyaletdinov (groin), Pienaar (knee), Saha (calf), Yobo (head)
Injured: Anichebe, Arteta, Jagielka, Neville & Vaughan (all knee), Osman (foot)

Aston Villa
Suspended: None Doubtful: Warnock (ankle)
Injured: Davies (shoulder), Downing (foot)

I've also gone for Villa outright @ 3.35, but the DNB gives that extra security at still great odds.

Töpher

Töpher wrote: »

Everton v Aston Villa -0 @ 2.38

1-1. Stake returned, no loss at least!

LSP: +8.24

.D (1 - 1) Everton v Aston Villa -0 @ 2.38
.L (1 - 1) Sport Recife v Coritiba @ 1.78
.L (1 - 1) Sport Recife v Coritiba - Over 2.5 @ 1.76
W (1 - 7) Bellinzona v BSC Young Boys @ 1.73
.L (1 - 0) Greuther Fürth v VfB Stuttgart - Over 2.5 @ 1.76
.L (0 - 0) Arles v Dijon @ 2.18
.L (0 - 2) AGF v Nordsjælland - Over 2.5 @ 1.85
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 3.5 @ 2.18
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 1.5 in first half @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Rio Ave v Sporting Braga - HT draw @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp - draw HT/FT Metz @ 5.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp @ 1.87
.L (2 - 1) Viborg v Vejle - Under 2.5 @ 2.08
.L (2 - 1) Bordeaux v Bayern Munich - draw @ 3.45
W (3 - 0) Blackpool v Sheffield United @ 2.56
W (2 - 1) Sporting Fingal v Limerick - Over 2.5 @ 1.83
W (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth @ 1.77
.L (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth - Under 2.5 @ 1.76
W (2 - 2) Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44
W (1 - 2) Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth - Over 2.5 @ 1.78
W (2 - 0) Monaco v Lens @ 1.74
W (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 2.5 @ 1.46
.L (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52
W (1 - 2) Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 @ 1.93
.L (2 - 1) Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50
W (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63
.L (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich - Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80
W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - Under 2.5 @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

candlegrease

Topher, who do you bet with?

Töpher

Pretty much always on Betfair, occassionally on BWIN or Paddy Power, but 99% of the time it'd be on Betfair.

Töpher

19.45 // England; Blue Square Premier // Kettering Town v Wrexham @ 1.99

		Pos	Pts	Pld	W	D	L
Kettering	3	34	17	10	4	3
Wrexham		16	21	16	6	3	7

				P	W	D	L	
Kettering	[@ home]	8	4	3	1	
Wrexham		[@ away]	7	2	1	4

Kettering's sole loss at home was to AFC Wimbledon, at the start of the season nearly 3 months ago. Asides from that, only 3 teams have stopped Kettering taking all the points on offer at home (Oxford, Luton, and Stevenage Borough), and all of these teams are currently occupying playoff or automatic promotion positions.

Wrexham will be playing their 4th away game in a row, in 2 weeks, tonight (one of these was a cup game). They've kept clean sheets in each of them so far, which is unusual given how they've conceded regularly on the road prior to this. They've also only scored 2 in the 3 games, and the cup game was away to several leagues lower opposition in the form of the new Halifax Town (though they are on good form). The only teams Wrexham have beaten on the road are Forest Green and Ebbsfleet, who would be the bottom 2 clubs were it not for Chesters' points deduction.

There's no denying Wrexham's current form is quite solid, but so is Ketterings, winning 5 of the last 6 (1-1 with Stevenage being the exception) and scoring in the last 7 matches.

Neither side has much in the way of injuries, though Kettering are waiting for their captain to under-go a fitness test.

Likely to be a low scoring affair, Wrexham have failed to score in 7 of their 16 games to date (unders @ 1.69 looks alright), but I'm hopeful Kettering can grind out a 1-0 or 2-0 victory to keep up the pace at the top, and (as good as) evens is too tempting to overlook.

DeadSkin

Kettering off to a good start 1 up

Töpher

Töpher wrote: »

Kettering Town v Wrexham @ 1.99

:mad: 2-2. Aghast! Penalty in stoppage time saving Kettering from defeat.

Eight losses from ten now, and only the one win, pretty diabolical stuff to be honest. I know its swings and roundabouts, and hopefully the form will turn at some stage, but this is horrendously demoralising! :rolleyes:

LSP: +7.24

.L (2 - 2) Kettering Town v Wrexham @ 1.99
.D (1 - 1) Everton v Aston Villa -0 @ 2.38
.L (1 - 1) Sport Recife v Coritiba @ 1.78
.L (1 - 1) Sport Recife v Coritiba - Over 2.5 @ 1.76
W (1 - 7) Bellinzona v BSC Young Boys @ 1.73
.L (1 - 0) Greuther Fürth v VfB Stuttgart - Over 2.5 @ 1.76
.L (0 - 0) Arles v Dijon @ 2.18
.L (0 - 2) AGF v Nordsjælland - Over 2.5 @ 1.85
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 3.5 @ 2.18
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 1.5 in first half @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Rio Ave v Sporting Braga - HT draw @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp - draw HT/FT Metz @ 5.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp @ 1.87
.L (2 - 1) Viborg v Vejle - Under 2.5 @ 2.08
.L (2 - 1) Bordeaux v Bayern Munich - draw @ 3.45
W (3 - 0) Blackpool v Sheffield United @ 2.56
W (2 - 1) Sporting Fingal v Limerick - Over 2.5 @ 1.83
W (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth @ 1.77
.L (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth - Under 2.5 @ 1.76
W (2 - 2) Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44
W (1 - 2) Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth - Over 2.5 @ 1.78
W (2 - 0) Monaco v Lens @ 1.74
W (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 2.5 @ 1.46
.L (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52
W (1 - 2) Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 @ 1.93
.L (2 - 1) Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50
W (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63
.L (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich - Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80
W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - Under 2.5 @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

Töpher

19.45 // Holland // Groningen v Heracles @ 3.90 (Heracles -0 [DNB] @ 2.59)

Groningen's (16th, 10pts) home record is currently P6 W1 D1 L4, whilst Heracles' (6th, 20pts) away record is P6 W4 D1 L1.

Heracles have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 league matches, and 4 in their last 5 away league matches, whilst Groningen have failed to score in their last 3 league matches. Heracles' current form is P5 W4 D0 L1 (to Twente), and Groningen are looking at P5 W1 D2 L2, with the last 4 being the draws and losses, and the win being 1-0 at home over Vitesse, who currently have 1 point more than them and sit in 14th (their only other win this season was another 1-0 over 15th place Heerenveen).

I can't find any team news to suggest Heracles are missing any key players for this, so can't quite fathom the size of the odds here (Skybet are only offering them @ 2.00), so will be taking some.

Töpher

Töpher wrote: »

Groningen v Heracles @ 3.90 (Heracles -0 [DNB] @ 2.59)

:mad: 4-1; not a clue what happened there, but I think that's my cue to exit!

LSP: +5.24

.L (4 - 1) Groningen v Heracles @ 3.90
.L (4 - 1) Groningen v Heracles -0 @ 2.59
.L (2 - 2) Kettering Town v Wrexham @ 1.99
.D (1 - 1) Everton v Aston Villa -0 @ 2.38
.L (1 - 1) Sport Recife v Coritiba @ 1.78
.L (1 - 1) Sport Recife v Coritiba - Over 2.5 @ 1.76
W (1 - 7) Bellinzona v BSC Young Boys @ 1.73
.L (1 - 0) Greuther Fürth v VfB Stuttgart - Over 2.5 @ 1.76
.L (0 - 0) Arles v Dijon @ 2.18
.L (0 - 2) AGF v Nordsjælland - Over 2.5 @ 1.85
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 3.5 @ 2.18
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 1.5 in first half @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Rio Ave v Sporting Braga - HT draw @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp - draw HT/FT Metz @ 5.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp @ 1.87
.L (2 - 1) Viborg v Vejle - Under 2.5 @ 2.08
.L (2 - 1) Bordeaux v Bayern Munich - draw @ 3.45
W (3 - 0) Blackpool v Sheffield United @ 2.56
W (2 - 1) Sporting Fingal v Limerick - Over 2.5 @ 1.83
W (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth @ 1.77
.L (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth - Under 2.5 @ 1.76
W (2 - 2) Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44
W (1 - 2) Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth - Over 2.5 @ 1.78
W (2 - 0) Monaco v Lens @ 1.74
W (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 2.5 @ 1.46
.L (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52
W (1 - 2) Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 @ 1.93
.L (2 - 1) Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50
W (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63
.L (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich - Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80
W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - Under 2.5 @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

MrKingsley

Shame its ended there topher. Only ever backed the losers but some great spots in there. Fair play. Hope your keeping your winners to yourself