Boxfresh's Betting System

Boxfresh · 14-10-2009 9:54pm

Bet 1: €10 England half time/full time @ 1.63 WIN €15.99

Net profit €55.32

Vurnon San Benito · 14-10-2009 9:56pm

Nice net profit, especially these days!

POINTBREAK · 14-10-2009 10:12pm

Ive been thinking about this Box. The main problem seems to be that you cant have enough bets to make it really profitable, mainly because you have to wait for each result before you can place the next bet. At the minute its working out an average of about 1.90 profit per bet, but its difficult to get more than about 10 bets a week if that, and its only 19 euro on average per week profit at best. I reckon you should expand to include all odds on chances in all other sports. The percentage of them that win works out much the same as the football bets.

wb · 15-10-2009 11:59am

He could try racing but as everyone knows, the bookmaker over-round is hard to beat.

Here's some interesting stats for UK and IRE racing - not sure how football would compare.

Since 2003, there has been 10269 horses priced between 1/2 and even money. 5362 of these won (52.22%) and a level stakes loss of 795.13 points was incurred.

There were twelve winners in a row on two occasions
There were ten winners in a row on three occasions
There were eight winners in a row on 18 occassions

There were twelve losers in a row on one occasion
There were eight losers in a row on ten occasions
There were six losers in a row on 38 occasions

Sorry Boxfresh - going off topic here but just found the racing stats interesting.

POINTBREAK · 15-10-2009 12:08pm

He could try racing but as everyone knows, the bookmaker over-round is hard to beat.

I think he said he was doing this on Betfair?

Boxfresh · 15-10-2009 12:15pm

wb wrote: »

He could try racing but as everyone knows, the bookmaker over-round is hard to beat.

Here's some interesting stats for UK and IRE racing - not sure how football would compare.

Since 2003, there has been 10269 horses priced between 1/2 and even money. 5362 of these won (52.22%) and a level stakes loss of 795.13 points was incurred.

There were twelve winners in a row on two occasions
There were ten winners in a row on three occasions
There were eight winners in a row on 18 occassions

There were twelve losers in a row on one occasion
There were eight losers in a row on ten occasions
There were six losers in a row on 38 occasions

Sorry Boxfresh - going off topic here but just found the racing stats interesting.

Interesting stuff wb. 6 losers in a row would wipe me out and I see it happened on 38 occasions there which seems like quite alot. It would be interesting to see what these stats would be like in football.
No doubt I will hit losing streaks in this system but with a few decent bets and if I put a bit of thought into the bets I do, I'll try and limit that losing streak.

I don't go near the horses anymore anyway. With football you've got win lose or draw - 3 choices. Or the over/unders market - 2 choices. Your either right or wrong. In horse racing you've got anything from 5 to 20 choices which makes it more difficult.

Boxfresh · 15-10-2009 12:16pm

POINTBREAK wrote: »

I think he said he was doing this on Betfair?

Yeah, Betfair all they way.

POINTBREAK · 15-10-2009 12:32pm

Favourite

Outcome
Return

Bets
Win
Place
Win
E/W
Less than 1-2
5122
75%
87%
99%
99%

Less that 1/2 with 75% Strike rate might work. Even if you backed the all.

wb · 15-10-2009 1:18pm

Ah yes I see he's using Betfair but just saying the data is for traditional SP.

It's hard to data mine the Betfair data as yet (which is a shame).

Boxfresh · 15-10-2009 5:11pm

Bet 1: €10 Snooker - Ronnie O Sullivan to beat Shaun Murphy @ 1.84

Net profit €45.32 + €10 in play

Töpher · 15-10-2009 5:50pm

Boxfresh wrote: »

Bet 1: €10 Snooker - Ronnie O Sullivan to beat Shaun Murphy @ 1.84

Net profit €45.32 + €10 in play

Good luck with that, I was thinking of the same following Ronnie's public apology and lashing of his latest permformance when he threw away the 3-1 lead, he's going to be out for blood now. I think I'm going to avoid to it personally, but hope it comes in for ya!

Töpher · 15-10-2009 9:27pm

Nicely done, he took a 3-0 lead, pegged back to 3-2, and then won the last frame. 4-2 overall. Good call.

Boxfresh · 15-10-2009 9:37pm

Bet 1: €10 Snooker - Ronnie O Sullivan to beat Shaun Murphy @ 1.84 WIN €17.98

Net profit €63.30

POINTBREAK · 17-10-2009 10:31am

Box. I have an idea to increase your profits. At the minute the total bank you have allowed is
10+20+40+80+160+320 Total 630 If you changed your staking system to..
20+40+60+80+160+270 Total 630.

Same amount of money at risk, but the advantage is your first 3 bets are significantly more that at present........ your 4th and 5th bet is the same and your last bet is only reduced by 50 points if it ever did go pear shaped. I think this staking system might increase you profits significantly.

L'prof · 17-10-2009 10:49am

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Box. I have an idea to increase your profits. At the minute the total bank you have allowed is
10+20+40+80+160+320 Total 630 If you changed your staking system to..
20+40+60+80+160+270 Total 630.

Same amount of money at risk, but the advantage is your first 3 bets are significantly more that at present........ your 4th and 5th bet is the same and your last bet is only reduced by 50 points if it ever did go pear shaped. I think this staking system might increase you profits significantly.

Sure, run over his bets with that system and see what he would be at now.

POINTBREAK · 17-10-2009 10:56am

I dont have time just now, but most of his bets have been 10 or 20 with a few 40 bets and that is showing a profit. If they were all 20 and 40 bets with a few 60's Its almost certain to nearly double his profit on what he has done up to now.

Boxfresh · 17-10-2009 12:32pm

Bet 1: €10 DOUBLE: Arsenal to beat Birmingham & Everton to beat Wolves @ 1.7 LOSE

Net profit €53.30

Boxfresh · 18-10-2009 1:00pm

Bet 1: €10 DOUBLE: Arsenal to beat Birmingham & Everton to beat Wolves @ 1.7 LOSE
Bet 2: €20 Man City to beat Wigan @ 1.96 LOSE

Net profit €33.30

POINTBREAK · 18-10-2009 10:33pm

Its hard enough Box without doing doubles.

Boxfresh · 18-10-2009 10:36pm

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Its hard enough Box without doing doubles.

That's true. I was going to do Everton alone on that one so I thought I'd stick Arsenal on aswell. I seen Arsenal as a guaranteed win, which they did. I'll stick with the singles from now on though

POINTBREAK · 19-10-2009 2:29am

If you do that and dont get impatient I cant see any reason it wont work.
When I used to bet on football if I did a quad 3 won....... a treble 2 won.......... a double was nearly always one winner and a hard luck story. So I have been there and done that, but couldnt afford the Tee Shirt.

Boxfresh · 19-10-2009 7:26pm

Bet 1: €10 DOUBLE: Arsenal to beat Birmingham & Everton to beat Wolves @ 1.7 LOSE
Bet 2: €20 Man City to beat Wigan @ 1.96 LOSE
Bet 3: €40 Fulham to beat Hull @ 1.67

Net profit -€6.70 +€40 in play

POINTBREAK · 19-10-2009 11:38pm

Nice one,

Boxfresh · 20-10-2009 8:13am

Bet 1: €10 DOUBLE: Arsenal to beat Birmingham & Everton to beat Wolves @ 1.7 LOSE
Bet 2: €20 Man City to beat Wigan @ 1.96 LOSE
Bet 3: €40 Fulham to beat Hull @ 1.67
WIN €65.46

Net profit +€58.76

Boxfresh · 20-10-2009 5:54pm

Bet 1: €10 Rangers to beat Unirea @ 1.83 LOSE

Net profit €48.76

argosy2006 · 20-10-2009 6:00pm

whats your longest run with no win on these bets,?
your in profit is main thing,

Boxfresh · 20-10-2009 7:00pm

argosy2006 wrote: »

whats your longest run with no win on these bets,?
your in profit is main thing,

Longest losing run was 3 in a row. €10, €20, €40 with a winner on bet 4, €80.

Boxfresh · 21-10-2009 7:44pm

Bet 1: €10 Rangers to beat Unirea @ 1.83 LOSE
Bet 2: €20 Chelsea to beat Athletico @ 1.43 WIN €28.17

Net profit €56.93

Boxfresh · 21-10-2009 9:58pm

€10 St. Patricks to beat Monaghan Utd @ L 1.4
€20 Kettering to beat Gateshead @ 1.57 W €29.83
€10 England to beat Croatia @ 1.62 W €15.39
€10 Leeds (away) to beat Southend @ 1.96 L
€20 Liverpool/Liverpool ht/ft @ 1.63 W €32.63
€10 Man Utd V Spurs (Man Utd Draw No Bet)@1.64 W €15.58
€10 Hamilton v Hibernian @ 2.0 L
€20 Nantes to beat Strasbourg @ 1.73W €32.87
€10 Man Utd (away) to beat Besiktas @ 1.56 W €14.82
€10 Liverpool v Debrecen - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.46 L
€20 Ajax half time/full time @ 1.94 L
€40 Arsenal half time/full time @ 1.81 W €68.78
€10 Barcelona v Atl Madrid - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.43 W €13.56
€10 Man Utd to beat Man City @ 1.6 W €15.20
€10 Sp Lisbon half time/full time @ 1.88 L
€20 Arsenal v West Brom Over 2.5 Goal @ 1.58 L
€40 Juventus Draw No Bet @ 1.6 Draw €40 returned
€40 Everton (away) to beat Portsmouth @ 1.97 W €74.86
€10 Arsenal v Olympiacos - Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.64 L
€20 Man Utd v Wolfsburg - Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.61 W €30.59
€10 PSV to beat CFR Cluj @ 1.61 W €15.30
€10 Schalke to beat Frankfurt @ 1.54 W €15.13
€10 Newcastle to beat Bristol City @ 1.6 L
€20 Everton to beat Stoke @ 1.64 L
€40 Man City to beat Aston Villa @ 2.66 L
€80 Leeds half time/full time @1.77 W €138.52
€10 Mk Dons to beat Walsall @ 1.66 W €16.27
€10 Notts County v Torquay - HT/FT Notts/Notts @ 2.02 L
€20 Livingston to beat Annan Ath @ 1.56 W €30.64
€10 England half time/full time @ 1.63 W €15.99
€10 Ronnie O Sullivan to beat Shaun Murphy @ 1.84 W €17.98
€10 DOUBLE: Arsenal & Everton @ 1.7 L
€20 Man City to beat Wigan @ 1.96 L
€40 Fulham to beat Hull @ 1.67 W €65.46
€10 Rangers to beat Unirea @ 1.83 L
€20 Chelsea to beat Athletico @ 1.43 W€28.17

36 BETS:
21 Winners
15 Losers

LSP: -2.12

Net profit using system: €56.93

argosy2006 · 21-10-2009 11:07pm

system is feasible then, rangers crashed and burned shame,

Boxfresh · 21-10-2009 11:14pm

argosy2006 wrote: »

system is feasible then, rangers crashed and burned shame,

Feasible until I hit a losing run of 6 losers. So far so good though!

argosy2006 · 22-10-2009 12:11am

what was the starting bank?

Boxfresh · 23-10-2009 5:49pm

Bet 1: €10 Watford v Sheff Wed - over 2.5 goals @ 1.98 WIN €19.31

Net profit €66.24

Boxfresh · 23-10-2009 10:21pm

Bet 1: €10 Aston Villa (away) to beat Wolves @ 2.2

Net profit €56.24 + €10 in play

Boxfresh · 24-10-2009 2:55pm

Bet 1: €10 Aston Villa (away) to beat Wolves @ 2.2
Bet 2: €20 Norwich to beat Swindon @ 1.64 Net profit €36.24 + €20 in play

Boxfresh · 24-10-2009 5:02pm

Bet 1: €10 Aston Villa (away) to beat Wolves @ 2.2
Bet 2: €20 Norwich to beat Swindon @ 1.64 WIN €32.16

Net profit €68.40

argosy2006 · 24-10-2009 5:05pm

time to up it to 15 30 60 120 240 480.. and if not winner at 480 let it go and start at 15, again///"?

Boxfresh · 24-10-2009 5:21pm

Bet 1: €10 over 2.5 goals - Chelsea v Blackburn @ 1.6

Net profit €58.40 + €10 in play

Boxfresh · 24-10-2009 6:52pm

Bet 1: €10 over 2.5 goals - Chelsea v Blackburn @ 1.6 WIN €15.70

Net profit +€74.10

Boxfresh · 25-10-2009 9:42am

Bet 1: €10 Man city to beat Fulham @ 1.53 LOSE

Net profit +€64.10

Boxfresh · 26-10-2009 7:24pm

Bet 1: €10 Man city to beat Fulham @ 1.53[/COLOR] LOSE

Bet 2: €20 over 2.5 goals - Benfica v Nacional @ 1.72

Net profit +€44.10 + €20 in play

Boxfresh · 26-10-2009 11:45pm

Bet 1: €10 Man city to beat Fulham @ 1.53 LOSE
Bet 2: €20 over 2.5 goals - Benfica v Nacional @ 1.72 WIN €33.68

Net profit +€77.78

Boxfresh · 28-10-2009 4:52pm

Bet 1: €10 Man City half time/full time @ 1.63

Net profit +€67.78 + €10 in play

Boxfresh · 28-10-2009 10:46pm

Bet 1: €10 Man City half time/full time @ 1.63 WIN €15.99

Net profit +€83.77

Boxfresh · 30-10-2009 8:31pm

Bet 1: €10 Borussia Dortmund to beat Hertha Berlin @ 1.73

Net profit €73.77 + €10 in play

Boxfresh · 30-10-2009 10:57pm

Bet 1: €10 Borussia Dortmund to beat Hertha Berlin @ 1.73 WIN €16.94

Net profit €90.71

POINTBREAK · 30-10-2009 11:39pm

Nice discipline Box, keep it up.

nice1franko · 31-10-2009 11:08am

Interesting thread. Glad it's working out. Good work fella.

Boxfresh · 31-10-2009 12:20pm

Bet 1: €10 Stoke to beat Wolves @ 2.02 LOSE

Net profit €80.71

Boxfresh · 01-11-2009 1:09am

Bet 1: €10 Stoke to beat Wolves @ 2.02 LOSE
Bet 2: €20 Man City to beat Birmingham @ 1.84 LOSE

Net profit €60.71

Boxfresh's Betting System

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