Boxfresh's Betting System

Boxfresh · 07-09-2009 2:36pm #1

I got this idea from another forum and the original poster made over €600 profit in about 2 months. He then increased his stakes and went for higher odds, got greedy and ended up losing it all. But I think with the right discipline and half decent bets I should make a profit.
I've tried this system with small stakes over the past few weeks and for the first time since I started gambling I'm showing a consistent profit.

This system is based on a system called the martingale system. You can read up about it on wikipedia for more info. All my bets are pre determined in a series of bets like this: x, 2x, 4x, 6x, 8x, 12x. With 'x' being €10 in this case.

It will mostly be football bets that I will do and I will place bets on odds on favourites between 1.5 and 2.0 or there abouts. If I lose my first bet of €10, my second bet will be €20, if that loses, my 3rd bets will be €40 and so on. As soon as I get a winner in that series I will go back to my original stake of €10 and start the series again. I will use Betfair prices as they are usually the best. First bet to follow shortly.

Hobart · 07-09-2009 2:50pm

Boxfresh wrote: »

It will mostly be football bets that I will do and I will place bets on odds on favourites between 1.5 and 2.0 or there abouts. If I lose my first bet of €10, my second bet will be €20, if that loses, my 3rd bets will be €40 and so on. As soon as I get a winner in that series I will go back to my original stake of €10 and start the series again. I will use Betfair prices as they are usually the best. First bet to follow shortly.

Thats not the Martingale system you are describing above. It works slightly differently (or would work in your case if the odds were constant). The idea is that you set yourself a set amount to win each time you make a bet. To simplify this, I will use betting on black or red in roulette. If I bet on €10 black, at odds of evens, and lose, my next bet has to cover my initial stake (€10) plus my potential winnings (€10), therfore my next bet would be €20 on black or red. If that bet is successful, I have won my stake back and the amount I was initially trying to win, and the system dictates that I start off again.

However, if the odds are constantly fluctuating (as in soccer) well then your stake will have to match the fluctuating odds, so it's not just a case of 1x 2x etc....

The flaws in the system is twofold:

1) You could end up using a very large stake for a very small return.
2) It assumes that you have access to a substantial amount of cash.

It can work, but the returns would outway the risk eventually.

Boxfresh · 07-09-2009 2:57pm

Hobart wrote: »

1) You could end up using a very large stake for a very small return.

It's all about limiting my losses at that stage. Then I start the series again. As long as I don't get as many as 6 or more in a row losses it shouldn be that bad.

By betting on odds on favourites less than evens shouldn't be hard to get winners within a series of 6 bets or less.

Hobart · 07-09-2009 3:14pm

Boxfresh wrote: »

It's all about limiting my losses at that stage. Then I start the series again. As long as I don't get as many as 6 or more in a row losses it shouldn be that bad.

By betting on odds on favourites less than evens shouldn't be hard to get winners within a series of 6 bets or less.

A run of six losses on an evens return could see you lose €490, for a potential return of €10. Eventually you will win, that's the beauty of the system, but you won't see many evens fav's in a soccer game, and your returns will be quite small for the risk.

Best of luck on it, I'll be keeping an eye in to see how it goes for you.

Boxfresh · 07-09-2009 3:20pm

I know that there won't be many favourites at evens but I could use the half time/full time or the over/under 2.5 goals market on that match. We'll see how it goes for a while anyway. Thanks.

kilkennykitten · 07-09-2009 3:22pm

Martingale = Road to poorhouse

Boxfresh · 07-09-2009 9:56pm

Bet 1: €10 St. Patricks to beat Monaghan Utd @ 1.4 LOSE

Bank -€10

kingshankly · 07-09-2009 10:18pm

would echo hobarts words,and strongly advise against this your not betting in 100% markets for a start probably between 110-120(unless your using betfair then you have to allow for paying them). this system can work in casinos but there very wise to it.
its not very unusual to have a very bad streak in gambling.

Boxfresh · 07-09-2009 10:43pm

kingshankly wrote: »

would echo hobarts words,and strongly advise against this your not betting in 100% markets for a start probably between 110-120(unless your using betfair then you have to allow for paying them). this system can work in casinos but there very wise to it.
its not very unusual to have a very bad streak in gambling.

What makes you think I'm betting in the 110-120% markets?? I am using Betfair prices like I said in the very first post and they are extemely close to the 100% mark if not under.

Boxfresh · 07-09-2009 10:48pm

Here is the link to the original thread where I got the idea if anyone wants to look at it:

http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f19/straight-bets-glory-hunt-bagzi-crna-gora-77837/

Töpher · 07-09-2009 11:36pm

The problem with this system is that if winning on bet 4 (6x @ 1.9-2.0), for example, doesn't return enough to cover bets 1-3 (totalling 7x), and so you need to move onto bet 5.

Example;
€10 - lose
€20 - lose
€40 - lose
€60 - win @ 2.0 (€60 profit, or €57 on Betfair). Session is -€10 (or -€13) at this point.

If you followed a flat out Martingale system, and bet 4 was €80, you'd be a few euro in profit and could close the session. As it stands, you'd need to continue with the session to (attempt to) profit, or close the session with a loss.

I suppose the main thing to be wary of is not to chase losses (easier said than done!), and don't risk what you can't afford.

G'luck anyways!

kingshankly · 08-09-2009 12:14am

Boxfresh wrote: »

What makes you think I'm betting in the 110-120% markets?? I am using Betfair prices like I said in the very first post and they are extemely close to the 100% mark if not under.

Read my post

Boxfresh · 08-09-2009 2:35pm

Bet 1: €10 St. Patricks to beat Monaghan Utd @ 1.4 LOSE
Bet 2: €20 Kettering to beat Gateshead @ 1.57

Bank -€30

jacool · 08-09-2009 2:44pm

best of luck. Gateshead could be either one of two things tonight.
Disconsolate at their player who got his leg broken over the weekend - the match was abandoned and the other team want the three points or
Up-for-it to try and win it for him.
I would have gone with Cambridge at 1/2 but that's just me.
As I've said good luck anyway !

Boxfresh · 08-09-2009 3:01pm

Yeah I was thinking of doing Cambridge, they were my first choice today but the odds were shorter than 1.5. I had to find something at over 1.5 to for my second bet to recover my first bet in the series so Kettering were my second choice. Fingers crossed!

TheRock · 08-09-2009 3:02pm

kilkennykitten wrote: »

Martingale = Road to poorhouse

QFT

Boxfresh · 08-09-2009 3:22pm

Why does everyone have to be so negative on this forum :rolleyes:

I must point out that I am using virtual money and this is only an experiment for now.

Catenaccio! · 08-09-2009 3:53pm

Ha, now you decide to tell us that it's virtual money

And the feedback you're getting is actually helpful, not fully sure why you're dismissing it so easily.

Hobart · 08-09-2009 4:07pm

Boxfresh wrote: »

Why does everyone have to be so negative on this forum :rolleyes:

I must point out that I am using virtual money and this is only an experiment for now.

Whats the point of experimenting, you've already seen the way it works on the other thread you linked us to?

Boxfresh · 08-09-2009 4:22pm

Hobart wrote: »

Whats the point of experimenting, you've already seen the way it works on the other thread you linked us to?

Well I just wanted to bring this idea or system to this forum to see what people thought of it and try it out myself.

Do you guys think this is a complete waste of time? Will I not bother going any further?

nice1franko · 08-09-2009 4:36pm

I tried same/almost the same before. Got it from 100 to 350 before losing it all.

It was interesting though. I was going to do it again with a ratchet sort of system where once I got to two hundred I'd bank a hundred and start all over again - but haven't had the time.

bustertherat · 08-09-2009 9:30pm

id be in favour of you continuing with it, just to see how it pans out and all that.

Boxfresh · 08-09-2009 9:42pm

Bet 1: €10 St. Patricks to beat Monaghan Utd @ 1.4 LOSE
Bet 2: €20 Kettering to beat Gateshead @ 1.57 WIN €29.83

Bank -€0.87

PCPhoto · 08-09-2009 9:56pm

Boxfresh wrote: »

Bet 1: €10 St. Patricks to beat Monaghan Utd @ 1.4 LOSE
Bet 2: €20 Kettering to beat Gateshead @ 1.57 WIN €29.83

Bank -€0.87

so according to your method ... you restart on €10 now ? (am I right)

or do you double up and put €40 down on next bet ?

Boxfresh · 08-09-2009 10:03pm

PCPhoto wrote: »

so according to your method ... you restart on €10 now ? (am I right)

or do you double up and put €40 down on next bet ?

That's right I will now start my 2nd series tommorow with the first bet being €10.

Boxfresh · 09-09-2009 11:14am

Bet 1: €10 England to beat Croatia @ 1.62

Bank -€10.87

Boxfresh · 09-09-2009 10:15pm

Bet 1: €10 England to beat Croatia @ 1.62 WIN €15.39

Net Profit: +€4.52

jacool · 10-09-2009 5:51pm

Ignore me !!! I had a 0-0 and you had a 4-0 winner !! keep it up!

Chonaic · 10-09-2009 6:33pm

I see your giving it a go Boxfresh, best of luck with it.

I am doing it at the moment myself offline, but most of my bets are on in-running bets where there are only two outcomes e.g. over/unders, Cricket next man out, snooker, tennis etc but i suppose posting your bets will keep you disciplined!

Boxfresh · 11-09-2009 10:02am

Bet 1: €10 Leeds (away) to beat Southend @ 1.96
Lose game finished 0 - 0

Net Profit: -€5.48

Boxfresh · 12-09-2009 1:54pm

Bet 1: €10 Leeds (away) to beat Southend @ 1.96 Lose game finished 0 - 0
Bet 2: €20 Liverpool/Liverpool ht/ft @ 1.63

Net Profit: -€25.48

Boxfresh · 12-09-2009 4:56pm

Bet 1: €10 Leeds (away) to beat Southend @ 1.96 Lose Southend 0-0 Leeds
Bet 2: €20 Liverpool/Liverpool ht/ft @ 1.63 WIN €32.63 Liverpool 4-0 Burnley

Net Profit: +€7.12

Boxfresh · 12-09-2009 5:18pm

Bet 1: €10 Man Utd V Tottenham - (Man Utd Draw No Bet) @ 1.64

Net Profit: -€2.88

Boxfresh · 12-09-2009 7:30pm

Bet 1: €10 Man Utd V Tottenham - (Man Utd Draw No Bet) @ 1.64 WIN €15.58 Tottenham 1-3 Man Utd

Net Profit: +€12.70

Boxfresh · 12-09-2009 11:39pm

Bet 1: €10 Hamilton v Hibernian @ 2.0 LOSE

Net Profit: +€2.70

Boxfresh · 14-09-2009 3:02pm

Bet 1: €10 Hamilton v Hibernian @ 2.0 LOSE
Bet 2: €20 Nantes to beat Strasbourg @ 1.73

Net profit -€17.30

jameshayes · 14-09-2009 3:14pm

I'm all for betting systems but this seems like to high a risk for the return... you've made a fair few bets and are still -7euro... I think you should either lower your odds or pick your bets a little more carefully... Best o' luck with it dude, hope you do well!;)

Boxfresh · 14-09-2009 3:32pm

Like everything it can be risky. If tonights result comes in I'll have a net profit of +€17. I see it as a slow but steady profit which is working ok so far just as long as I don't have 6 losing bets in a row cos that could cost me! Thanks for your comment anyway James.

Raoul · 14-09-2009 4:56pm

When you win, instead of putting the same stake on again, would you consider increasing it by say 2 euro and then if you lose double it. So if you bet 10 on evens:

Bank = 20

Next bet 11 at evens, if it wins bank = 31

and so on.

If the 11 euro bet loses bet 21 like you have done. So each time you profit you are increasing your original stake by a small amount (not being greedy) and then you if you lose you are also increasing that stake. Just an idea. Have to give you a lot of credit for giving your method a go though.

Like your method, a mate and I used to put 1 euro on a team to draw, if it lost put 2 and so on until it came in. Someone forgot to put the bet on one week and we missed when the team drew with Chelsea. Our thinking is that no team will ever go through the whole season without drawing a game and the draw is usually good odds.

Boxfresh · 14-09-2009 5:26pm

Hi Raoul, I see your point. By increasing the stakes after every win is grand until I hit a losing streak then it'll sting that little bit harder so I think I'll just stick with the original plan for now.

Boxfresh · 14-09-2009 9:42pm

Bet 1: €10 Hamilton v Hibernian @ 2.0 LOSE
Bet 2: €20 Nantes to beat Strasbourg @ 1.73 WIN €32.87

Net profit +€15.57

Boxfresh · 15-09-2009 3:12pm

Bet 1: €10 Man Utd (away) to beat Besiktas @ 1.56

Net profit +€5.57 (+€10 on Bet 1)

Boxfresh · 15-09-2009 9:38pm

Bet 1: €10 Man Utd (away) to beat Besiktas @ 1.56 WIN €14.82

Net profit +€20.39

Boxfresh · 16-09-2009 11:01am

Bet 1: €10 Liverpool v Debrecen - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.46 LOSE

Net profit +€10.39

Boxfresh · 17-09-2009 11:23am

Bet 1: €10 Liverpool v Debrecen - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.46 LOSE
Bet 2: €20 Ajax half time/full time @ 1.94 LOSE

Net profit -€9.61

Boxfresh · 19-09-2009 12:19pm

Bet 1: €10 Liverpool v Debrecen - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.46 LOSE
Bet 2: €20 Ajax half time/full time @ 1.94 LOSE
Bet 3: €40 Arsenal half time/full time

Net profit -€49.61

Boxfresh · 19-09-2009 8:59pm

Bet 1: €10 Liverpool v Debrecen - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.46 LOSE
Bet 2: €20 Ajax half time/full time @ 1.94 LOSE
Bet 3: €40 Arsenal half time/full time @ 1.81 WIN €68.78

Net profit +€19.17

Boxfresh · 19-09-2009 9:01pm

Bet 1: €10 Barcelona v Atl Madrid - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.43

Net profit +€9.17 (+€10 in play)

Boxfresh · 19-09-2009 9:39pm

Bet 1: €10 Barcelona v Atl Madrid - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.43 WIN €13.56

Net profit +€22.76

Boxfresh · 20-09-2009 12:12pm

Bet 1: €10 Man Utd to beat Man City @ 1.6

Net Profit: +€12.76 (+€10 in play)

Boxfresh · 20-09-2009 9:45pm

Bet 1: €10 Man Utd to beat Man City @ 1.6 WIN €15.20

Net Profit: +€27.96

Boxfresh's Betting System

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