Premiership half time/full time betting log

Might be better value in it just betting when the weaker team are at home!

I did some basic analysis on this market a couple of years back and discovered there were about 8 teams over that particular season who had ht/ft turnarounds.

To me it seems the bookies price this as a classic mean occurence of ht/ft turnarounds simply divided by the number games so there might be value to be had if the cause of turnarounds can be identified. The odds on offer are much shorter than the real probability but if you get the criteria right you can rule out a lot of games and maybe get an edge. I seem to remember some of the basic criteria being slow starting/high scoring teams such as Chelsea and Man Utd playing against low scoring teams like Sunderland, Fulham, Birmingham etc. where the underdog might nick a first half goal before the stronger team gets into top gear in the second half and scores 2 or 3 goals, just like Chelsea last night.

I think to make a profit you'd need to extend the timescales over a full season as there will probably only be about 10-15 turnarounds in a season. You'll have to patient for winners but they'll be big when they come (I had 2 in one season both at 28/1). I also seem to remember not many teams had only one turnaround so that would make Sunderland and Chelsea good bets for turnarounds in later games in my opinion.

Good luck with it!