Will the Irish State collapse?

darkman2 · 15-08-2009 05:15PM

Bob_Harris wrote: »

Your vision of apocalypse will not happen.

An awful lot of people will be getting very desperate in the coming months. Just wait till after the December budget! We have much tougher times ahead as a country. Hopefully the worst won't happen - but it can happen.

is_that_so · 15-08-2009 05:20PM

darkman2 wrote: »

The situation is completely impossible. Our country is destroyed. I don't think this country will maintain it's independent status for much longer. The tragedy is the Irish people have done this to themselves. Fianna Fáil on 4 other occasions brought this country to the brink of collapse - they were found always to be corrupt gombeen men. What do the Irish people do - they keep voting them back in. 25% of people in the last local elections voted for this mob. Their people who, if FF killed children, they would still vote for them. Look at B Flynn in Mayo. The Irish people have been found incapable of self governance. It is patently obvious. FF nearly destroyed the country before. This time they have succeeded.

Four occasions you say? Must have missed the memo on this one. Do tell.
Even if this is AH there are some seriously specious ramblings here without an awful lot of evidence to offer it any support.

darkman2 · 15-08-2009 05:24PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Four occasions you say? Must have missed the memo on this one. Do tell.
Even if this is AH there are some seriously specious ramblings here without an awful lot of evidence to offer it any support.

1930's (stupid Dev "economic war" with Britain)

1961 (Whitaker tells FF the country cannot maintain independence for much longer the way the economy is being managed)

1970's ....pointless, needless recession

1980's ....lost decade

What do they all have in common - those recessions I hear you ask that all brought the country to it's knees? Two words - Fianna Fáil......

BTW not saying the opposition would be much good either.

is_that_so · 15-08-2009 05:45PM

darkman2 wrote: »

1930's (stupid Dev "economic war" with Britain)

1961 (Whitaker tells FF the country cannot maintain independence for much longer the way the economy is being managed)

1970's ....pointless, needless recession

1980's ....lost decade

What do they all have in common - those recessions I hear you ask that all brought the country to it's knees? Two words - Fianna Fáil......

BTW not saying the opposition would be much good either.

This has all the look of a cunningly disguised "I hatez FF" rant. You seem to be pinning every economic problems we've ever had on one party.

Whitaker was right. We had an agrarian, backward economy. Whitaker, Lemass et al ushered in the golden age of modern Irish politics and the foundation for our modern economy during the sixties.

The 1970s was mostly the result of the oil crisis and not peculiar to Ireland. Britain had an even worse time of it. Incidentally we had a FG/Labour coalition from 1973-77.

The only one I'd agree with is the 1980s mostly because it is true, but not exclusively the fault of FF. Common sense only once reared its head in the 80s , with the Tallaght Strategy and Mac The Knife. But the country wasn't destroyed as you describe it any more than we have been destroyed now. It's a recession, which in our case has been exacerbated by local activities.

Our current mess is a mixture of government decision-making, greedy people and a collectively apolitical public who now want to blame the same people who gave them the money to spend.

The budget in December will be the worst one in many years but not the end of the world. It certainly will have nothing on the hairshirt budgets of the 70s and 80s. Most of what is likely to happen has been in the public domain for a while anyway.

I can't help feeling that there are some people who just have an obsessive hankering for a meltdown and have no real idea what it means.

El Siglo · 15-08-2009 06:29PM

The big problem, and major deviation between this recession and the last, is not the public sector debts, over spending, greed, incompitent politicians etc... these are constants in our system. The big difference is personal borrowing, whatever about our government borrowing, the borrowing by Joe Bloggs and Jane Doe is a serious problem, with thousands of jobs going every week, it's very easy to blame politicians (and rightly so) for the mess, but the problem is that everyone is in serious debt, and you can ask every one above the age of 40, and they will tell you the same thing; 'you never borrowed big back in the day'. I wouldn't go out and say to people 'it's your fault you're broke now', you can't look at it that way, borrowing from the general public was necessary for everything because of the rate of inflation over the last decade and cost of living increases etc... The big problem is:
Unemployed + massive debt + low social welfare benefits = desperate people and this is something we can't neglect. I don't think we'll have a financial meltdown and subsequent 'glorious workers revolution' but I do think a more insidious and horrible result of this economic crisis will be more crime, more drugs and more broken families as opposed anything else. If anything that will collapse it will be the intangible aspects of Irish society as opposed to political economy, we'll lose our spirit before our TDs and bank managers.

Rebelheart · 15-08-2009 07:04PM

Joy Tall Showcase wrote: »

I do. Check out my profile, he's even one of my friends.

hehe Joy Tall Showcase. I was wondering "What sort of an odd auld bastard is this?" when I saw that but then I read your profile and found the Caoimhín in question.

So, does anybody actually like the Kevin Myers who was born in Leicester, England, Great Britain, in 1947, a subject of Her Majesty the Queen of England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Jamaica, Barbados, The Bahamas, Grenada, Papua New Guinea, The Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Antigua and Barbuda, Belize and St Kitts and Nevis, Head of the Commonwealth, Supreme Governor of the Church of England, Duke of Normandy, Duke of Lancaster (yes, Duke, not Duchess) Lord of Mann and Paramount Chief of Fiji? (Ah the modesty, humility and moderation of that entire culture will be the death of me.)

jenno86 · 15-08-2009 07:11PM

Pardon my french, but what a load of bólocks.

Mrmoe · 15-08-2009 07:19PM

I hope it does, nothing like starting anew again.

El Siglo · 15-08-2009 07:24PM

Rebelheart wrote: »

hehe Frada. I was wondering "What sort of an odd auld bastard is this?" when I saw that but then I read your profile and found the Caoimhín in question.

So, does anybody actually like the Kevin Myers who was born in Leicester, England, Great Britain, in 1947, a subject of Her Majesty the Queen of England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Jamaica, Barbados, The Bahamas, Grenada, Papua New Guinea, The Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Antigua and Barbuda, Belize and St Kitts and Nevis, Head of the Commonwealth, Supreme Governor of the Church of England, Duke of Normandy, Duke of Lancaster (yes, Duke, not Duchess) Lord of Mann and Paramount Chief of Fiji? (Ah the modesty, humility and moderation of that entire culture will be the death of me.)

Ah no, Idi Amin's title was class so it was, now this is a title:
"His Excellency President for Life, Field Marshal Al Hadji Doctor Idi Amin, VC, DSO, MC, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and Fishes of the Sea, and Conqueror of the British Empire in Africa in General and Uganda in Particular."

15-08-2009 07:29PM

How exactly is the huge level of personal debt that has built up ( + interest :eek:) going to be paid back?...If people are losing their jobs, social welfare to be cut, more taxes this December

This is the elephant in the room - its not going to just go away.

The **** is yet to hit the fan here

partyatmygaff · 15-08-2009 07:33PM

Rebelheart wrote: »

hehe Frada. I was wondering "What sort of an odd auld bastard is this?" when I saw that but then I read your profile and found the Caoimhín in question.

So, does anybody actually like the Kevin Myers who was born in Leicester, England, Great Britain, in 1947, a subject of Her Majesty the Queen of England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Jamaica, Barbados, The Bahamas, Grenada, Papua New Guinea, The Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Antigua and Barbuda, Belize and St Kitts and Nevis, Head of the Commonwealth, Supreme Governor of the Church of England, Duke of Normandy, Duke of Lancaster (yes, Duke, not Duchess) Lord of Mann and Paramount Chief of Fiji? (Ah the modesty, humility and moderation of that entire culture will be the death of me.)

And supposedly Kevin Myers is responsible for the actions of the British monarchy from hundreds of years ago and the size of the British Empire. These countries are no longer under command of the Queen, the majority atleast but nevertheless, In this day and age anyone who still views the entire British nation and all those from Britain as evil and unlikeable is unfathomable.

Careful now Rebelheart, your speaking english, the language of the demon state known as the UK.
:rolleyes:

Cop on all that Anti-British republicanism and stuff has no place in 2009

Purple Gorilla · 15-08-2009 07:34PM

salonfire wrote: »

How exactly is the huge level of personal debt that has built up ( + interest :eek:) going to be paid back?...If people are losing their jobs, social welfare to be cut, more taxes this December

This is the elephant in the room - its not going to just go away.

The **** is yet to hit the fan here

Well last month (Or June? Not sure) was the first month in a while where the Irish actually repaid more debt than they borrowed I believe

Blackjack · 15-08-2009 07:36PM

partyatmygaff wrote: »

And supposedly Kevin Myers is responsible for the actions of the British monarchy from hundreds of years ago and the size of the British Empire. These countries are no longer under command of the Queen, the majority atleast but nevertheless, In this day and age anyone who still views the entire British nation and all those from Britain as evil and unlikeable is unfathomable.

Careful now Rebelheart, your speaking english, the language of the demon state known as the UK.
:rolleyes:

Cop on all that Anti-British republicanism and stuff has no place in 2009

??

Hitchhiker's Guide to... · 15-08-2009 07:37PM

JupiterKid wrote: »

Anyone who loves this country should never vote FF ever again.

lol. The other parties wanted even more public spending according to their manifestos in the last two elections and proposed nothing to reduce house prices. Did the other parties propose any law bills on bank lending over the last ten years? How would they have helped us avoid a recession?

Each political party would have been equally likely to have led us into this recession imo.

I won't be voting for FF at the next election, but that doesn't mean i have even the slightest bit more respect for any of the other political parties.

I definitely don't think we should single out FF, without pointing out the multitude of flaws of the opposition parties.

Dartz · 15-08-2009 08:11PM

An Fear Aniar wrote: »

strongr wrote:

No, if the country isnt sorted out in the next few years the eu will goosestep in.

Fixed if for ya.

.

i've got my browncoat ready.

OPENROAD · 15-08-2009 08:18PM

Hitchhiker's Guide to... wrote: »

lol. The other parties wanted even more public spending according to their manifestos in the last two elections and proposed nothing to reduce house prices. Did the other parties propose any law bills on bank lending over the last ten years? How would they have helped us avoid a recession?

Each political party would have been equally likely to have led us into this recession imo.

I won't be voting for FF at the next election, but that doesn't mean i have even the slightest bit more respect for any of the other political parties.

I definitely don't think we should single out FF, without pointing out the multitude of flaws of the opposition parties.

You make some very valid points, however all this has happened on FF watch so the opposition are not responsible for the situation we are in.

As I said you do make some valid points re the opposition, one only has to look back at the last election to see that.

ejmaztec · 15-08-2009 08:20PM

partyatmygaff wrote: »

And supposedly Kevin Myers is responsible for the actions of the British monarchy from hundreds of years ago and the size of the British Empire. These countries are no longer under command of the Queen, the majority atleast but nevertheless, In this day and age anyone who still views the entire British nation and all those from Britain as evil and unlikeable is unfathomable.

Careful now Rebelheart, your speaking english, the language of the demon state known as the UK.
:rolleyes:

Cop on all that Anti-British republicanism and stuff has no place in 2009

Even in these days of Ipods, and other such fanciful things, there are people still using those old-fangled record machine contraptions where the needles get stuck.:eek:

Rev. BlueJeans · 15-08-2009 08:30PM

The one thing many people are overlooking here is how deep in the mire we are.

Look at it this way-the rest of Europe is or will begin to emerge from a recessionary state before the year is out. As will the US and the rest of the world.

The price of fossil juice is what, about 70 bucks now? Let it hit 140, and couple that with a few points of a rise in the ECB rate.

Many people that are borderline now mortgage wise will be goosed, and we'll still have the debt on our backs from the vote buying double effers (and the people who were quite happy to lap it up without a thought for the future, or any care for inefficiency and capitulation to the grabbing masses.

Stephen is it you call this thing? He'll be here for a while yet I'm afraid.

Purple Gorilla · 15-08-2009 08:44PM

The ECB will not be raising interest rates anytime soon. They do not want to do anything that will upset France and Germany's recent minimal growth and especially while most of the rest of the EU is still in recession, they will not be raising rates. I also doubt we'll see oil hitting $140 a barrel anytime soon.

Rebelheart · 15-08-2009 08:51PM

partyatmygaff wrote: »

Careful now Rebelheart, your speaking english, the language of the demon state known as the UK.

:rolleyes:

Ahem. You're. And to think I went to the tech! Jaysas.

partyatmygaff wrote: »

And supposedly Kevin Myers is responsible for the actions of the British monarchy from hundreds of years ago and the size of the British Empire.

You're not understanding English if you came to that conclusion. Re-read my post, slowly and carefully. Ah, see?

partyatmygaff wrote: »

These countries are no longer under command of the Queen, the majority atleast but nevertheless,

There's no 'nevertheless' about it. The official title of Her Majesty (the one and only, sorry Beatrice of the Netherlands!) is as above. It should be assumed that I know what I'm talking about considering I omitted former titles such as 'Queen of France' and 'Queen of Ireland', held by some of the current monarch's predecessors.

partyatmygaff wrote: »

In this day and age anyone who still views the entire British nation and all those from Britain as evil and unlikeable is unfathomable.

the_dark_side · 15-08-2009 08:52PM

Brian Lenihan was recently heard saying (off the record) that the single biggest mistake that the government did in the last year was to pump 7 billion into Anglo Irish Bank in a bid to refloat them; they just hadnt realised how huge Anglo's problems were, and that is 7 billion down the drain... now the government have try and grab it off the dole budget to make up the loss.

Ireland has gone down the swany about 2 years ago. IMF will be in after another 7 or 8 months, watch and see

netwhizkid · 15-08-2009 09:12PM

I personally believe Ireland is finished and is a failed state, I cannot comprehend how we are allowed to remain in the Euro and the ECB should kick us out of the EURO and let us revert to An Punt Nua and see it devalue to rock bottom, Ireland has actually escaped the worst of things yet by being locked into the EURO, when Europes (Germanys) economy starts going right again and they will rise the interest rates high to suit then it will be anarchy here.

I can see a Civil War on Irish soil before 2015 resulting from various issues, I think sometime between 2011 to 2012 the new FG government will resign office after the savage cuts of the IMF which will decimate our Police and Army forces. FF will then go back into Government to fill the power vacuum as FG says this is not our mess we are not sorting it out. The people of Ireland now facing a 40% unemployment rate with 70% PAYE taxes and €50 a week dole will then revolt. Dail Eireann will burn and Fianna Failers, builders and developers around Ireland will be targeted and killed mercilessly. Ireland is doomed and I for one welcome they day that Bertie Ahern is made to pay for his crimes of economic treason.

The old Irish Republic and constitution will rise and the counties of Tyrone and Fermanagh will be seceeded from the UK to form part of a new 28 County Irish Republic. Fianna Fail has killed the Republic of Ireland but the new Irish Republic will rise from the ashes.

The country is ruined :-/

Purple Gorilla · 15-08-2009 09:15PM

netwhizkid wrote: »

I personally believe Ireland is finished and is a failed state, I cannot comprehend how we are allowed to remain in the Euro and the ECB should kick us out of the EURO and let us revert to An Punt Nua and see it devalue to rock bottom, Ireland has actually escaped the worst of things yet by being locked into the EURO, when Europes (Germanys) economy starts going right again and they will rise the interest rates high to suit then it will be anarchy here.

I can see a Civil War on Irish soil before 2015 resulting from various issues, I think sometime between 2011 to 2012 the new FG government will resign office after the savage cuts of the IMF which will decimate our Police and Army forces. FF will then go back into Government to fill the power vacuum as FG says this is not our mess we are not sorting it out. The people of Ireland now facing a 40% unemployment rate with 70% PAYE taxes and €50 a week dole will then revolt. Dail Eireann will burn and Fianna Failers, builders and developers around Ireland will be targeted and killed mercilessly. Ireland is doomed and I for one welcome they day that Bertie Ahern is made to pay for his crimes of economic treason.

The old Irish Republic and constitution will rise and the counties of Tyrone and Fermanagh will be seceeded from the UK to form part of a new 28 County Irish Republic. Fianna Fail has killed the Republic of Ireland but the new Irish Republic will rise from the ashes.

The country is ruined :-/

Is this an excerpt from some fiction novel or something?

If we're a failed state, I'd hate to see Spain

ScumLord · 15-08-2009 09:25PM

The whole world is doomed to failure as far as I can see. We have economy's that need constant growth or else they're failing, machines taking over allot of jobs to keep up with consumer demand. The only way out of that is to introduce more bureaucracy so that everything is top heavy with management, I really don't see the point in trying to keep the current way of life afloat when it's so flawed. We're just going around in circles getting nowhere and the only people it protects are the people abusing the system for their own gain.

Rebelheart · 15-08-2009 09:33PM

netwhizkid wrote: »

I personally believe Ireland is finished and is a failed state, I cannot comprehend how we are allowed to remain in the Euro and the ECB should kick us out of the EURO and let us revert to An Punt Nua and see it devalue to rock bottom, Ireland has actually escaped the worst of things yet by being locked into the EURO, when Europes (Germanys) economy starts going right again and they will rise the interest rates high to suit then it will be anarchy here.

I can see a Civil War on Irish soil before 2015 resulting from various issues, I think sometime between 2011 to 2012 the new FG government will resign office after the savage cuts of the IMF which will decimate our Police and Army forces. FF will then go back into Government to fill the power vacuum as FG says this is not our mess we are not sorting it out. The people of Ireland now facing a 40% unemployment rate with 70% PAYE taxes and €50 a week dole will then revolt. Dail Eireann will burn and Fianna Failers, builders and developers around Ireland will be targeted and killed mercilessly. Ireland is doomed and I for one welcome they day that Bertie Ahern is made to pay for his crimes of economic treason.

The old Irish Republic and constitution will rise and the counties of Tyrone and Fermanagh will be seceeded from the UK to form part of a new 28 County Irish Republic. Fianna Fail has killed the Republic of Ireland but the new Irish Republic will rise from the ashes.

The country is ruined :-/

One of the more interesting posts I've read on Boards.ie, that's for sure. Conor Cruise O'Brien, if he were around, would probably have a lot to say about it.

asdasd · 15-08-2009 10:12PM

ireland is not going to fall into anarchy. Far from it. The Irish State is remarkably resiliant, far more than most European countries. America is in a low grade cold civil war most of the time with the Far right and Left ranting past each other on "mainstream" news.

Ireland on the other hand has:

1) Taken a 10% cut in private pay on average.
2) Increased it's exports during a huge drop in world trade ( this year).
3) Reduced the pay of it's public employees across the board. More to come.
4) Has not dumbed down it's education system.

There has as yet not been a riot. The French would be buring down the Bastille at this stage.

Yes we went too Free market. yes, the politicians are crap. In general though, there is enough talent in Ireland to come back fairly quickly. neither Finland, nor iceland, nor Japan have seen the "State collapse", now have they? All are remarkably stable. And nor will we have a lost decade, the big fall in the first year of a recession can be benefical in the long run, as there is spare capacity when things get going. Japan lost it's decades ( really two) because it did not actually take that much of a hit - unemployment was kept artifically low.

BTW AIB and BOI are trading at about 2 euro now, up from a few pence in March. The market believes in the future.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock · 15-08-2009 10:17PM

netwhizkid wrote: »

I personally believe Ireland is finished and is a failed state, I cannot comprehend how we are allowed to remain in the Euro and the ECB should kick us out of the EURO and let us revert to An Punt Nua and see it devalue to rock bottom, Ireland has actually escaped the worst of things yet by being locked into the EURO, when Europes (Germanys) economy starts going right again and they will rise the interest rates high to suit then it will be anarchy here.

I can see a Civil War on Irish soil before 2015 resulting from various issues, I think sometime between 2011 to 2012 the new FG government will resign office after the savage cuts of the IMF which will decimate our Police and Army forces. FF will then go back into Government to fill the power vacuum as FG says this is not our mess we are not sorting it out. The people of Ireland now facing a 40% unemployment rate with 70% PAYE taxes and €50 a week dole will then revolt. Dail Eireann will burn and Fianna Failers, builders and developers around Ireland will be targeted and killed mercilessly. Ireland is doomed and I for one welcome they day that Bertie Ahern is made to pay for his crimes of economic treason.

The old Irish Republic and constitution will rise and the counties of Tyrone and Fermanagh will be seceeded from the UK to form part of a new 28 County Irish Republic. Fianna Fail has killed the Republic of Ireland but the new Irish Republic will rise from the ashes.

The country is ruined :-/

Is this why you are encouraging people to vote no to Lisobon on your sig?

Purple Gorilla · 15-08-2009 10:23PM

asdasd wrote: »

ireland is not going to fall into anarchy. Far from it. The Irish State is remarkably resiliant, far more than most European countries. America is in a low grade cold civil war most of the time with the Far right and Left ranting past each other on "mainstream" news.

Ireland on the other hand has:

1) Taken a 10% cut in private pay on average.
2) Increased it's exports during a huge drop in world trade ( this year).
3) Reduced the pay of it's public employees across the board. More to come.
4) Has not dumbed down it's education system.

There has as yet not been a riot. The French would be buring down the Bastille at this stage.

Yes we went too Free market. yes, the politicians are crap. In general though, there is enough talent in Ireland to come back fairly quickly. neither Finland, nor iceland, nor Japan have seen the "State collapse", now have they? All are remarkably stable. And nor will we have a lost decade, the big fall in the first year of a recession can be benefical in the long run, as there is spare capacity when things get going. Japan lost it's decades ( really two) because it did not actually take that much of a hit - unemployment was kept artifically low.

BTW AIB and BOI are trading at about 2 euro now, up from a few pence in March. The market believes in the future.

^^
Sense

Blackjack · 15-08-2009 10:27PM

netwhizkid wrote: »

I personally believe Ireland is finished and is a failed state, I cannot comprehend how we are allowed to remain in the Euro and the ECB should kick us out of the EURO and let us revert to An Punt Nua and see it devalue to rock bottom, Ireland has actually escaped the worst of things yet by being locked into the EURO, when Europes (Germanys) economy starts going right again and they will rise the interest rates high to suit then it will be anarchy here.

I can see a Civil War on Irish soil before 2015 resulting from various issues, I think sometime between 2011 to 2012 the new FG government will resign office after the savage cuts of the IMF which will decimate our Police and Army forces. FF will then go back into Government to fill the power vacuum as FG says this is not our mess we are not sorting it out. The people of Ireland now facing a 40% unemployment rate with 70% PAYE taxes and €50 a week dole will then revolt. Dail Eireann will burn and Fianna Failers, builders and developers around Ireland will be targeted and killed mercilessly. Ireland is doomed and I for one welcome they day that Bertie Ahern is made to pay for his crimes of economic treason.

The old Irish Republic and constitution will rise and the counties of Tyrone and Fermanagh will be seceeded from the UK to form part of a new 28 County Irish Republic. Fianna Fail has killed the Republic of Ireland but the new Irish Republic will rise from the ashes.

The country is ruined :-/

Time to run for the hills, eh?

leitrim lad · 15-08-2009 10:44PM

yip the story about the irish state is abit like the titanic , we got half way there and hit an ice berg called anglo ,and it brought us down in the middle of the atlantic,

if only poor old dev could see our country now and what he faught for being sold to the germans for half nothing ,by a barrister and a solicitor,

i wou7ldnt think he would approve at all

Will the Irish State collapse?

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