Arbitrage betting - should you do it when presented with the opportunity?

AARRRGH · 27-05-2009 06:59PM #1

Hello all

Just looking for your thoughts on this. I've never arbed a bet before.

I have €300 layed on there being less than two yellow cards in tonights Champions League final. I layed the bet at 3.85, so I risk about €300 for returns of €300 + €100 winnings.

The backing odds have now increased to 4.6, so it is now possible to cover myself so I can't lose. The negative is I will only get the difference between 3.85 and 4.6 which means I won't be able to get €100 in winnings.

Anyway, is it considered "smart" to arb when you have the chance, or should I stick to my original bet?!

Any opinions appreciated.

Thanks!

Healio · 27-05-2009 11:55PM

This is a big debate among many gamblers,

Dont know if you seen it; there was an article about this kind of thing in the Racing Post a few weeks ago; basically stating that if you have the odds in your favour on a bet, it is best to leave it ride unless you are talking about a life-changing some of money.

Although pitch your postion to an arber and there will be fewer answers than the percentage they are creaming off!! (1 to those who dont get it).

How happy were you with the bet before you placed it? Being a stubborn person myself I'd have left it; although I have lost medium sums doing this in the past, it is the times when i've left it and won big that well outweigh the times it doesnt come off, psychologically as well as monetarily.

Personally, I wouldnt consider it smart to "arb" just because the situation is there to do it, its all about circumstances.

It really depends on yourself and why you are gambling. Numerous times friends have asked me similar questions, and everytime I tell them to take the profit while it is there; as half the profit is better than none of the profit.
At the same time though; I have done the opposite too many times myself in very similar positions.

oh yeah, I hope you didnt arb it!!

altor · 28-05-2009 11:25AM

what you could do is place less money on the win to make something off the bet . then no mater what the outcome you get something back, hedging the bet its called.

altor · 28-05-2009 11:55AM

AARRRGH wrote: »

I have €300 layed on there being less than two yellow cards in tonights Champions League final. I layed the bet at 3.85, so I risk about €300 for returns of €300 + €100 winnings.

The backing odds have now increased to 4.6, so it is now possible to cover myself so I can't lose. The negative is I will only get the difference between 3.85 and 4.6 which means I won't be able to get €100 in winnings.

i have worked it out for you.. if you lay €300 at 3.85 and then back them with €251 at 4.6 you make €46 profit no mater what the out come is.. who do you bet with ? hope this helps, any questions let me know..

weemcd · 28-05-2009 08:25PM

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/hedging-calculator.html

^ for future, make sure you change the back commission to 5%

i'd always cover myself whenever possible, its not as brave, but who am i to turn down guaranteed profit?;)

altor · 28-05-2009 09:48PM

weemcd wrote: »

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/hedging-calculator.html

^ for future, make sure you change the back commission to 5%

i'd always cover myself whenever possible, its not as brave, but who am i to turn down guaranteed profit?;)

i did not use your calculator, i calculated it on betfair so it is right, i have it set up to calculate the return less commission after the back and lay bet :-)

readytorock · 29-05-2009 04:18AM

Arbing will result in consistant profits in the short and long term. If your not willing to to arb or even hedge the bet, you will be just like the many thousands of people up and down the country that lose money gambling! You may win initially but the danger I see is "the win" hooks people in and you always try to feel that rush of adrenaline again. There may not be any rush of adrenaline when you arb a bet but if you were to put all your arbing winning bets in an account and leave it for a couple of years I'm sure you'd feel a high preety happy when you look at the figure!!!

pakalasa · 29-05-2009 09:23AM

readytorock wrote: »

Arbing will result in consistant profits in the short and long term. If your not willing to to arb or even hedge the bet, you will be just like the many thousands of people up and down the country that lose money gambling! You may win initially but the danger I see is "the win" hooks people in and you always try to feel that rush of adrenaline again. There may not be any rush of adrenaline when you arb a bet but if you were to put all your arbing winning bets in an account and leave it for a couple of years I'm sure you'd feel a high preety happy when you look at the figure!!!

I've tried arbing before on horse racing. You will win a lot of small amounts but then you will get caught for one large one.
For example you bet on the favourite but the odds then drift out, you wait for them to fall but they never do. The race goes live and the odds drift out even more. Horse looses - you loose more than your profits to date.:mad:
Got to remember thousands of others out there are trying to arb also, all against each other.

damnyanks · 29-05-2009 09:29AM

If you can win no matter what hte outcome you should take it.

altor · 29-05-2009 11:42AM

its not easy doing it if you back in every race. thats where most people go wrong. backing a horse on betfair and then hedging them if the price falls is better, providing the price fall that is :-)

Fremen · 29-05-2009 05:23PM

In the real world, it's always optimal to arb your bets. It's quite possible to come up with some examples where arbing is a bad idea, but if the bet was even remotely fair to begin with, you should arbitrage it.

Here's my reasoning:

Let X be the profit from your bet (a random variable). Let A be the amount you can take by arbitraging. If the expectation (long-run average) of X is less than A, you should arbitrage.
Given that the world is a cold, hard place and no-one offers a free lunch, the bet was probably fair, so E[X] was close to zero, which suggests that you should arb.

A non-maths way to look at it is, how much would you expect to win or lose, on average, by placing that bet? If your arb is greater than that amount, you should take the money and run.

Igor Biscan · 29-05-2009 08:04PM

I always hedge out if the opportunity presents itself - guaranteed winnings are better than losing.

weemcd · 29-05-2009 09:27PM

altor wrote: »

i did not use your calculator, i calculated it on betfair so it is right, i have it set up to calculate the return less commission after the back and lay bet :-)

Apologies, i wasn't referring to you specifically in my post, more general info for the thread.

Out of interest how do you have it set up that the return is calculated that way?

altor · 29-05-2009 11:51PM

weemcd wrote: »

Out of interest how do you have it set up that the return is calculated that way?

All you have to do is open a market on betfair, open the tab above the market marked more options, select P+L net of commission by placing a tick in the box.
I also have a tick in the DISPLAY "what if" figure box, handy for if you want to know how much to put on to get say your return less the commission before you place your bet, it comes up under the horse you back, like when you have a bet on.. any problems let me know, have you used bet trader yet ?

weemcd · 30-05-2009 12:30PM

altor wrote: »

All you have to do is open a market on betfair, open the tab above the market marked more options, select P+L net of commission by placing a tick in the box.
I also have a tick in the DISPLAY "what if" figure box, handy for if you want to know how much to put on to get say your return less the commission before you place your bet, it comes up under the horse you back, like when you have a bet on.. any problems let me know, have you used bet trader yet ?

Haven't, highly recomended?

sm.org · 30-05-2009 01:01PM

pakalasa wrote: »

I've tried arbing before on horse racing. You will win a lot of small amounts but then you will get caught for one large one.
For example you bet on the favourite but the odds then drift out, you wait for them to fall but they never do. The race goes live and the odds drift out even more. Horse looses - you loose more than your profits to date.:mad:
Got to remember thousands of others out there are trying to arb also, all against each other.

The main thing I look for when arb is value , backing the favourite is not always the best start as the arb will only happen if the fav is winning and there's not much point laying off then.

My best sports for arb : tennis, basketball and football correct score markets.

altor · 31-05-2009 03:10PM

Great it is, good for in play bets too because it refreshes every time a horses price changes. you can even see the money on each horse in the race on the page. you should try it plus its free to download..

davide1982 · 14-06-2009 08:09PM

For simpler illustration of how it is possible to earn money through betting I'd advice the following article:

http://www.myhowtoos.com/en/common-howtoos/53-how-to-earn-money-from-betting

Arbitrage betting - should you do it when presented with the opportunity?

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