Reinhardt,scary prediction for tomorrow, 9/2/09

uncle_sam_ie wrote: »

Going by his past predictions having been spot on I'll give him the benefit of the doubt this week. He seems to be confident enough to double his sub price.

Please explain?

Otherwise this is looking like a call 1550 line.

I've read the thread from my perspective.

You've read it from yours.

The last couple of pages put his predictions into perspective. They cannot be argued with. The market is in free fall, we all know it, even I can predict it.

Look, the world will end some time, we can all find pointers.

uncle_sam_ie wrote: »

Lehman brothers went bankrupt on that day.
Ya,you can get lucky once but he did it again in October and in Febuary.

Do expand, February in particular.

There are a number of indications that if Obama wins the election that
between that day and the inauguration the Israelis will launch an
attack against the Iranian Nuclear complex which would probably lead
to a nice little war that would obviously have economic consequences
around the world. So then in January when they say we entered a
recession in the previous quarter they will be able to blame it on the
war.

Reinhardt e-mailed me and told me to put this up so his predictions
could be dated and timestamped.

"I would sell Microsoft today"

"the across the board market may likely rise on optimism of the Senate
bill but don't wait until Friday to sell MS and maybe a few other
Washington companies?

The next date of significance is Tuesday October 7th 2008. May be a
date of infamy

its like all of a sudden my eyes opened up, a brigade of troops
launched to do what ever there ordered to do on american soil against
other americans with no oversite by anyone other then the
president .why in gods name would that be nessasary unless he really
is going to make a stand and not let the next election take place. is
being president really that much of an inside game now that rather
then give barack the chance to be the next president theres a
cordinated effort around the globe to leave bush in charge wow is it a
line drawn all of a sudden?

umm feb 9th is kinda far away, does that mean the market's gonna go up
until then? lol

The problem with this entire theory is that it is predicated on the
historical fallacy that War creates prosperity and economic growth.
According to the traditional Keynesian model of Economics, the large
debt spending should have been followed by a recession, whereas there
was, in fact, a large boom in economic growth.
I'd also like to present you with a quote from, "Did Government's
Largesse Help the Locals? The Implications of WWII spending for Local
Economic Activity," by economist Joseph Cullen. Through the use of
econometrics Cullen looks to prove that War Spending had little to
know effect on economic growth by comparing counties in the United
States.

The quote reads -
The lack of a longer term effect of War spending per capita on
consumption,
savings, and earnings fits into the mixed set of findings in the
literature on the impact of
public works spending.3 There were specific features of the War
spending that may have
led to the lack of an effect. First, World War II spending largely
replaced production of
private consumption and investment goods. Second, there were
significant short-run
costs when factories that normally produced civilian goods were
converted into war
production facilities in the early 1940s and than were reconverted
back to civilian
production after the War. In a number of cases, war production
facilities ended up as
scrap because they could not be converted at reasonable cost to
production of civilian
goods (Higgs 2004). Finally, high federal tax rates that were paid by
the majority of
households imposed strong fiscal drags on any stimulation to income
provided by greater
War spending.

I have plenty of other problems with the logical fallacies in
Reinhardts proposal of a world wide conspiracy, but this is the
biggest and most obvious to point out since he predicates his entire
theory on this very historical misnomer.





Great stuff.