July Competition, Forecast/Analysis

Second attempt. It better work.

Just a quick skim over of how July 86 fitted into one of the coolest years of the 20th century. So did July of that year break the curse of the cool gloomy run of months of 86 up to June?

Well, no acutally. Though there was some modest warmth around during the middle of the month, the OIM still finished of close to average (14.5c). Here is how daily mean trend worked out, using 5 stations (Malin Head, Kilkenny, Claremorris, Dublin Apt, Rosslare):



Warmest part of the month occured within the first few days, owing to the residual continental influence that dominated the 2nd half of the previous June.

Here are extracts from the Meteorological Service of Ireland's sum up of this uninspiring month:

"Not much of a summer so far, sad to say. (Things must have been bad ) The weather pattern during the month was dominated by westerly winds that brought moist, cloudy air from the Atlantic over the country. New records for dullness during the month of July were set at a number of stations. Sunshine amounts were below normal everywhere, with Claremorris, Shannon Airport and Birr having their dullest July in over 40 years; at a number of stations there hasn't been as little sunshine in July in more than 30 years.

"Rainfall amounts were close to normal at most stations. Malin Head had only one dry day during the entire month (less than 0.2mm), whilst Rosslare only recorded 12 days with noticable rain. The driest station was Kilkenny with only 25.3mm during the month.

"Mean temperatures for the month were close to normal everywhere. There was a notable lack of high daytime temperatures but his was balanced by the fact that nightime minima were generally above normal".
Also notable about this month is that no thunder was recorded at any of the Met Eireann stations, despite 86 being one of the more thundery years the country experienced in many a year. Also of note was the lack of any high daily rainfall totals. Highest daily total of 27.8mm occured at Rosslare on the 30th.

Warmest temperature of the month occured in Kilkenny on the 14th when the mercury rose to a much needed 26.5c. Kilkenny also experienced the coolest temp of the month, 4.8c on the morning of the 9th.

Synoptic set up leading up to the warmest day of the month:



The best this month had to offer..:rolleyes:

Pressure values ended up close to average by the end of the month (1016.7mb, just 0.4mb above the expected figure).

Graph charting the daily mean pressure values of the five stations mentioned earlier:



Included on the graph is the monthly mean pressure trend. Of note is how a steady decline started to develop in the last 10 days of the month. Surely to God this was not an onimous signal of more bad weather to come in the following August? Surely a much needed break from the gloom of this dreary 80's year was just around the corner? Join me next month to find out!!

A brief glance at how the European temp anomaly looked for the dull and depressing month that was July 86:



Average generally, but noticable cool over parts of southern and more especially eastern Europe. Nearby Atlantic showed no sign of great warmth either.





:cool:

Mid month glance at how July is doing.

No charts due to problems uploading with Photobucket, will try again later.

Edit: working now



Overall mean up to the 14th is 14.0c. While this is below the July 61-90 average by 0.7c, it is still 0.2c above the July 1st-14th 61-90 linear mean by 0.2c. So pretty much bang on average to date. Coolest in the North and West generally speaking.

Rainfall chart up to midnight 14th:



July 08 mean rainfall of the 10 stations up to the 14th stands at 60.5mm, which is 96.7% of the total July 61-90 average, and 223.8% of the July 1st-14th mean. Wettest in the South and East.

Mean Sea Level Pressure up to midinight 14th:



Mean sea level pressure this month up to the 14th stands at 1006.9mb, 9mb below the 58-88 expected. Mean monthly trend is rising, but only very slowly, which may be indicating at less unsettled weather, rather any fine spell over the next few days...

...such is this summer so far :rolleyes:

Up to midnight 20th:

Overall Mean: 14.2c (-0.5c). Very slight drop on yesterday's value.
Overall Rainfall: 68.5mm (109.6%). Driest in the west.
Overall SLP: 1009.8 mb (5.0 mb below normal). Monthly trend rising.

Can't believe it!

That mean should rise after today, its muggy out there, like a summer