July Competition, Forecast/Analysis

Mothman

The 1961-1990 June mean for the 10 stations is 14.4C.
Here are the July questions. There is one extra question over and above June competition.Deep Easterly can elaborate on Q4 if need be.

1) July mean temperature 08
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur?
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur?
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb)
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July.

List of stations for bonus 2a and 3a
Ballyhaise
Belmullet
Birr
Casement
Claremorris
Cork Airport
Dublin Airport
Johnstown Castle
Knock Airport
Malin Head
Mullingar
Carlow (Oak Park)
Shannon Airport
Valentia

I don't think I'll get time to do the usual stats

Mothman

Mothman wrote: »

I don't think I'll get time to do the usual stats

If there are specific requests for stats, I'll see what I can do to answer...

nacho libre

1) July mean temperature 14.8 c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 27.9
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Shannon
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.1
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Mullingar
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1015
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 15.2 mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 5.5c

Snowbie

Questions 5 and 6 edited at OP request.

Hal1

Why ye saying Casement will have lowest temp, don't say that please!

rc28

1) July mean temperature 08--- 15.4c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 28.0c
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Birr
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 5.1c
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Mullingar
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1014mb
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 14mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 7.0c

Gonzo

1) July mean temperature 08--- 14.9c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 24.7c
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Shannon
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 5.9c
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Mullingar
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1012mb
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 9mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 6.5c

kindredspirit

1) July mean temperature 08 15.7
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 28.7
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Johnstown Castle.
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.4
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Claremorris.
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1012
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 10mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 6.0

Deep Easterly

With regards mean pressure values for the month of July, very little info available on the web. This link will serve as a quick overview of pressure means for each station for each month. There is little or no variation between the yearly averages shown on this and the 58-88 mean values I have available here on paper. http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~brugge/ukclimate.html#1Ireland

The following map is a crude rendition of the Met Eireann national mean gradient and pressure values for the month of July (51-80)



Forgive my bad artistory, was done in a rush , but is a good representation of July's mean gradient and pressure flow for 30years.

Oveall, the 58-88 nationwide mean, when rounded down, is 1016 mb. South has higher values, while north has slightly lower. For competition purposes, we will use daily averages as per Ogimet (00hrs).

While the methods we will use to monitor and assess pressure values for Ireland from here on in are by no means professional or foolproof, it will serve reasonably well for the purpose of the competition and for general analysis,. It should give us an overall picture of how mean pressure values for each month vary from the norm.

With regards the competition, scores will be reflective of values that are rounded down or up enough to disregard any decimals. I.E, a final figure of say 1017.6 mb will be rounded up to 1018 mb, while a figure of 1017.4 mb will fall back to 1017 mb. Just keeps it in context for a general overview.

Good luck in any forecast regarding this. Remember, the lower the pressure you pick, the more likely you are considering an unsettled month ahead, and vice versa. So consider carefully!!!!!

Deep Easterly

1) July mean temperature 08 15.1c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 27.5c
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Birr
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.9c
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Ballyhaise
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1017mb
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 7mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 7.9c

ch750536

1) July mean temperature 08 : 14.4
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 29.1
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Shannon
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)4.4
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur?Casement
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1016
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 0mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 6.2

Deep Easterly

Mothman wrote: »

I don't think I'll get time to do the usual stats

A helping hand, in your own style.:)

2000: Highest: 27.6c (Shannon). Lowest: 5.4c (Birr)

2001: Highest: 26.9c (Dublin Apt), Lowest: 3.9c (Mullingar)

2002: Highest: 24.0c (Clones), Lowest: 5.3c (Clones)

2003: Highest: 25.7c (Clones), Lowest: 7.2c (Kilkenny)

2004: Highest: 23.9c (Kilkenny), Lowest: 4.1c (Mullingar)

2005: Highest: 29.2c:eek:(Kilkenny), Lowest: 6.3 (Clones)

2006: Highest: 31.0c, phew:D (Casement), Lowest: 4.5c (Mullingar)

2007: Highest: 21.5c, brrrr:rolleyes:(Kilkenny), Lowest: 5.4c (Mullingar)

Danno

1) July mean temperature 08 : 16.1
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 28.7
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Carlow
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 4.7
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Cavan
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1020
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 7.3mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 11.2

DOCARCH

1) July mean temperature 08 : 15.3c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 26.7c
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Shannon
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 5.1c
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Mullingar
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1014
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 10.8mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 8.6c

M.T. Cranium

1) July mean temperature 08 : 15.7 C
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 28.8 C
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Belmullet
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 6.7 C
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Birr
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1013
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 20.0 mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 11.5 C

Trogdor

1) July mean temperature 08 : 14.1 C
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 24.3 C
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Clones
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 5.9 C
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Mullingar
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1012
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 14.0 mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 9.7 C

Strasser

1) July mean temperature 08: 14.1
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 22.3
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Mullingar
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.5
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Clones
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1012
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 7mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 8.7

kindredspirit

Do you mind if I change my forecast of the month's mean SLP to 1015?

gurramok

1) July mean temperature 08: 14.5
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 22.8
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Birr
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 4.2
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Birr
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1013
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 9.3mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 5.1

Weather BOFH

1) July mean temperature 08 : 15.2C
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 25.4C
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Casement
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 5.3C
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Mullingar
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1012
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 8.0mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 8.8C

nilhg

1) July mean temperature 08 15.0
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 29.9
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Birr
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.9
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Birr
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1016.3
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 1.1mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 8

jd

1) July mean temperature 08 14.8
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 27.1
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Oakpark
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 5.4
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Birr
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1014.8
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 5.4mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 8.2

Deep Easterly

Anyone else? lines close at midnight tonight.:pac:

Mobhi1

1) July mean temperature 14.3
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 23.1
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Oak Park
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 7.1
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Birr
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1010
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 15mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 7.7

Supercell

1) July mean temperature 08 - 14.3
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) - 23.7
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Carlow
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 4.7
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Casement
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1013
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July - 5mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July - 8.1

Snowbie

1) July mean temperature 08 14.2C
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 25.1C
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Mullingar
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 7.7C
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Knock
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1013mb
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 20mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 9C

nacho libre

according to the forecast it's going to be fairly chilly tonight...

perhaps the temperature may drop close to 3C in Mullingar:D

Deep Easterly

A summary of June just past, Boards.ie style:

Final overall mean breakdown for June 08:



Close to average. Warmest in the southwest, coolest in the northeast.

Rainfall totals for the month:



Again, southwestern half of the country wettest, while northeastern half relatively drier.

Mean daily pressure trend for June 08:



Mean pressure stayed above normal for most of the month, but fell slightly below normal towards the end of the month, which reflects the wetter 2nd half of June nicely. Final value: 1015.0 mb, 0.9mb below the June average of 1015.9 mb.


Some humble climate statistics for the year of 2008 up to and including 30th June:

Firstly, deviational trend for each month of the period:



June showed a big drop from the deviational warmth of May 08 by returning to more normal setup. Intrestingly, June 08 is the 3rd month of 2008 that has come in close to the 61-90 norm, (within 0.5c), something that did not occur even once at this stage of the year in 2007.

Bar graph of the difference between 07/08 for the first 6 months of each year:



The record breaking warmth of 2007 still has not been surpassed by 2008 so far. While the first 6 months of 2008 is still 0.95c above normal, 2007 had a warmer 1.39c for the same period, as reflected in the graph. However, if the next couple of months come in warmer than average, then the glory of 2007 could well be under threat. Could be interesting to watch over the coming months.

Rainfall for 2008 for the period in question:



While there where a lot of dry spells in during the last couple of months, mean rainfall totals for 2008 up to 30th June are still above the Jan-June 61-90 mean of 432.9 mm by almost 97mm. Also 2008 is proving to be wetter than up to the same point in 2007.

Daily pressure values for the Jan-June period of the present year:



The running 2008 pressure mean up to 30th June stands at 1011.6 mb, which is 1.4 mb below the 58-88 mean of 1013 mb for the Jan-June period. The current yearly trend is steady, indicative of little overall change in the current pattern for the next couple of weeks??

We will see this time next month..



:cool:

Supercell

Mullingar 3.6°C overnight.
I see a good few people have that as their forecast low station.
Going to be a high scoring month this time I think.

Mothman

Remarkable how consistant the max temperature has been for past 3 weeks
30 day mean is 13.2C

Deep Easterly

July 08 stats up to midnight 4th:

OIM: 13.7c (1.0c below average).
OMR: 24.6mm (39.3% of June normal / 600%+ of June 1st-June 4th normal).
OMP: 1009.4 mb (5.5 mb below normal)

Supercell

One little point ..its July

Deep Easterly

Yes, of course... June on the brain.:cool:

Deep Easterly

Second attempt. It better work.

Just a quick skim over of how July 86 fitted into one of the coolest years of the 20th century. So did July of that year break the curse of the cool gloomy run of months of 86 up to June?

Well, no acutally. Though there was some modest warmth around during the middle of the month, the OIM still finished of close to average (14.5c). Here is how daily mean trend worked out, using 5 stations (Malin Head, Kilkenny, Claremorris, Dublin Apt, Rosslare):



Warmest part of the month occured within the first few days, owing to the residual continental influence that dominated the 2nd half of the previous June.

Here are extracts from the Meteorological Service of Ireland's sum up of this uninspiring month:

"Not much of a summer so far, sad to say. (Things must have been bad ) The weather pattern during the month was dominated by westerly winds that brought moist, cloudy air from the Atlantic over the country. New records for dullness during the month of July were set at a number of stations. Sunshine amounts were below normal everywhere, with Claremorris, Shannon Airport and Birr having their dullest July in over 40 years; at a number of stations there hasn't been as little sunshine in July in more than 30 years.

"Rainfall amounts were close to normal at most stations. Malin Head had only one dry day during the entire month (less than 0.2mm), whilst Rosslare only recorded 12 days with noticable rain. The driest station was Kilkenny with only 25.3mm during the month.

"Mean temperatures for the month were close to normal everywhere. There was a notable lack of high daytime temperatures but his was balanced by the fact that nightime minima were generally above normal".
Also notable about this month is that no thunder was recorded at any of the Met Eireann stations, despite 86 being one of the more thundery years the country experienced in many a year. Also of note was the lack of any high daily rainfall totals. Highest daily total of 27.8mm occured at Rosslare on the 30th.

Warmest temperature of the month occured in Kilkenny on the 14th when the mercury rose to a much needed 26.5c. Kilkenny also experienced the coolest temp of the month, 4.8c on the morning of the 9th.

Synoptic set up leading up to the warmest day of the month:



The best this month had to offer..:rolleyes:

Pressure values ended up close to average by the end of the month (1016.7mb, just 0.4mb above the expected figure).

Graph charting the daily mean pressure values of the five stations mentioned earlier:



Included on the graph is the monthly mean pressure trend. Of note is how a steady decline started to develop in the last 10 days of the month. Surely to God this was not an onimous signal of more bad weather to come in the following August? Surely a much needed break from the gloom of this dreary 80's year was just around the corner? Join me next month to find out!!

A brief glance at how the European temp anomaly looked for the dull and depressing month that was July 86:



Average generally, but noticable cool over parts of southern and more especially eastern Europe. Nearby Atlantic showed no sign of great warmth either.





:cool:

Snowbie

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Well after spending the last hour writing up a profile for July 1986, the whole lot was lost when I tried to post it.:mad: Graphs, text, images, the lot. I will draw up another summary of this month when I cool down. That may take some time...

Didn't want to say anything till you cooled down but...:D. Hate when that happens, try copy and pasting off site for anything this size or select all and copy before publishing it. I got caught out a few times myself before.

Nice work and yes a memorable month for another rare occurrence these days.

Danno

Well done Paddy. Excellent work there.

Deep Easterly

14.0c up to midnight last, still 0.7c below the June normal, but around average for this stage of the month.

Mean pressure values remain much below the expected norm though.

Rainfall above average.

Mothman

5.6C min at Casement this morning which will count as the low at Casement for the period 11-13th July.

Chilly night with 4.2C at Claremorris, but not as low as the 3.6C at Mullingar on 4th

No idea of overall mean

Mothman

Overall mean 13.9C to 12th

Mothman

0.1mm rain at Casement 11-13th July.

Mothman

New max of month.
Casement 22.2C today 14th

Edit:
Oak Park eclipsed Casement with 22.7C

Deep Easterly

Mid month glance at how July is doing.

No charts due to problems uploading with Photobucket, will try again later.

Edit: working now



Overall mean up to the 14th is 14.0c. While this is below the July 61-90 average by 0.7c, it is still 0.2c above the July 1st-14th 61-90 linear mean by 0.2c. So pretty much bang on average to date. Coolest in the North and West generally speaking.

Rainfall chart up to midnight 14th:



July 08 mean rainfall of the 10 stations up to the 14th stands at 60.5mm, which is 96.7% of the total July 61-90 average, and 223.8% of the July 1st-14th mean. Wettest in the South and East.

Mean Sea Level Pressure up to midinight 14th:



Mean sea level pressure this month up to the 14th stands at 1006.9mb, 9mb below the 58-88 expected. Mean monthly trend is rising, but only very slowly, which may be indicating at less unsettled weather, rather any fine spell over the next few days...

...such is this summer so far :rolleyes:

Mothman

Bringing charts to new page
Overall mean to 16th July 14.1C
30 day mean is 13.7C

Snowbie

The overall mean should rise through this week. Looks like high value temps should be around mid twenties for 3 or 4 days across the midlands and west with nights also being mild countrywide.

Mothman

Overall mean to 19th July 14.2C, bordering on 14.3C

nacho libre

What was the lowest recorded temperature, at Ireland's weather stations, last night?

Mothman

nacho libre wrote: »

What was the lowest recorded temperature, at Ireland's weather stations, last night?

7.1C at Birr

Deep Easterly

Up to midnight 20th:

Overall Mean: 14.2c (-0.5c). Very slight drop on yesterday's value.
Overall Rainfall: 68.5mm (109.6%). Driest in the west.
Overall SLP: 1009.8 mb (5.0 mb below normal). Monthly trend rising.

Mothman

Min last night, 4.8C at Mullingar and Casement recorded a slight ground frost.
Mullingar still holds lowest temperature for month, 3.6C on 4th

nacho libre

it will be interesting to see which station records the highest temperature this week.

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

it will be interesting to see which station records the highest temperature this week.

Have you not consulted my rather excellent forecast? Birr will come in the warmest, naturally.

Overall Mean up to midnight 21st down to 14.1c, a small drop on yesterday's figure.

For the overall mean to finish off bang on average, the mean for the remaining days of the month will need to be at least 16c; with warmer air now becoming established over the Atlantic, this should not be a problem.

MSLP up to and including the 21st stands at 1010.6 mb, still rising, but remaining 5.2 mb below the July 1st-21st average.