Ireland in grip of recession, ESRI

Run for your lives!!!

I for one welcome our new negative growth overlords.

Rb wrote: »

Interesting Link

From Link wrote:

1990

Ireland's participation in the 1990 World Cup in Italy is seen by many commentators as crucial in restoring the nation's pride.

Looks like all our hopes of coming out of this recession are on Traps shoulders to qualify for the World Cup!

To be fair, that indo/herald article is a pile of balls. "Two decades and we're back to where we began"? Complete bull****.

We're in a very different economic environment than we were back then. Most of us have jobs, are well educated, and well settled. We'll see emigration, but nothing like what we had back in the 80's - the problem back then was that the well-educated had to leave to find jobs. Now, most of the well-educated have jobs, and the vast bulk of those leaving college will find a job within a year.

The bulk of the impact will focus on the downturn in building/housing. That industry needs to correct itself, and the vast majority of those leaving for other shores will have been employed in that industry. The construction industry for whatever reason never saw this coming. The vast majority of construction workers, from what I've seen, are shocked that suddenly there's no more work for them, even though the writing's been on the wall for nearly three years now.

I have a mate who started an apprenticeship in plumbing in 2003. A year later, he had taken a year off to work on a site, getting paid €18/hour to basically make tea and carry stuff around. I told him to go finish his apprenticeship, that he's not going to continue getting that kind of money. His response was basically, "People are always going to need plumbers, why would I bother going to Fás and getting nothing when these guys are giving me tonnes of money?". He still hasn't finished his apprenticeship and is coming back to Ireland after an extended holiday. I very much doubt he's going to get work anywhere.
His attitude though seems to be typical of people who entered the construction industry in the early 2000's. Indeed, it seems to be typical of those who entered I.T. in the late 90's.

read the following in todays FT. Interesting atricle

Ireland is wrong to put its miracle at risk

By Wolfgang Munchau

Published: June 23 2008 03:00 | Last updated: June 23 2008 03:00

After a week of what European leaders call reflection, another Irish referendum beckons, to be held early next year. Without it, there might well be an attempt to oust the Irish from the European Union.

A Yes vote in a second referendum is not certain, even if the Irish government were to succeed in securing another rent-extracting, treaty-amending protocol. At a time when the Irish economy is about to fall off a cliff, enthusiasm for the EU and its treaties will not increase. In other words, holding a referendum would be as risky as not holding a referendum. A fine mess.

So within a couple of weeks, the chances of Ireland ending up outside the EU have turned from zero to a distinct possibility. The same goes for the Czech Republic, another potential non-ratifier. I do not want to get into the legal details of how a country's departure from the EU could be accomplished. Suffice it to say that it can be done within European law as long as there is political will.

What strikes me the most about this extraordinary turn of events is the perception in Ireland that a break with the EU would be no big deal. I received a large number of letters from Ireland last week from readers who steadfastly maintain that the country's economic success had nothing to do with the EU and everything to do with domestic policy - in particular with low corporate taxes and skilled labour.

The view expressed by those correspondents is as wrong as it is revealing. If so many people are delusional about their country's economy, then we should perhaps not be surprised about the outcome of the referendum. It is therefore perhaps worth looking in some detail at the nature of Ireland's economic success over the last 30 years to gauge what life might be like outside the EU.

There are several interactive factors. The importance of EU subsidies is almost certainly overrated. They played some part, especially in the early phase of the country's economic renaissance. In any case, Ireland is on the verge of becoming a net contributor to the EU budget. But one would be even more mistaken to conclude the opposite: that the EU matters nothing or little.

Ireland was one of the early and enthusiastic members of the European Monetary System in 1979, which brought much needed macroeconomic stability. Membership of the eurozone in 1999 led to lower interest rates, which have contributed to the economic growth ever since. Low corporate tax rates certainly helped Ireland attract foreign investors. But never forget that Ireland is also the only English-speaking member of the eurozone, the one place where eurozone and Anglosphere meet.

The country naturally benefited from membership of the EU's internal market. Without it, Ryanair, the Irish low-cost airline, would not be able to offer its popular flights across Europe. The Irish have also proved influential in the management of the internal market, not least through Charlie McCreevy, the Irish commissioner in charge of the EU's internal market and financial services. As a member of the EU, Ireland has been in a position to veto motions that would have impaired the country's economic success. Without steadfast opposition from Ireland, the EU would have made more headway in imposing corporate tax harmonisation.

I do not want to play down the importance of domestic policies either. Ireland owes its success to a complex set of policies and circumstances. Perhaps among the most important were the various tripartite social partnership agreements since 1987, through which the government, employers and the trade unions achieved a combination of wage moderation, high employment and low taxes. This form of round-table corporatism works best in tiny open economies if it works at all. It is ironic that this country, whose officials take pleasure in hectoring others on free-market economics, is in fact one of Europe's most corporatist states. Even France and Germany cannot produce so much social partnership, and I can assure you that this is not for lack of trying.

So what would happen if Ireland were to leave the EU? As an associate member of the single European market, Ireland would probably attract less foreign investment than it does today. Dublin's financial centre would be demonised as an offshore tax haven and treated on par with Liechtenstein. We would see lots of Ryanair flights between Dublin and Cork and the EU would put even more pressure on Ireland to raise corporate taxes.

Oh, and by the way, Ireland would no longer be a member of the eurozone. The Irish could use the euro if they wanted to but this would be like Panama using the dollar - a little sad, really. There would be no Irish voice in the European Central Bank's governing council warning that this is not a good time to raise interest rates. Leaving the EU involves a huge loss power and influence.

To put it mildly, the No vote is highly risky. Considering that the country is now on the verge of a severe economic slowdown, brought on by a downturn in the real estate market and the credit market crisis, it could not have come at a worse time. Not only does the No vote carry risks, it is a highly asymmetric gamble that brings no material benefit under the best of circumstances. The No vote put Europe's most impressive economic miracle at stake, and the cards are not looking good.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2856b69a-40bb-11dd-bd48-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

Legalise drugs, tax the dealers, problem solved. Celtic Tiger becomes Celtic Dragon.

Seems we're the only country to not be trying fiscal stimulus. The simple truth is that the best way to regain growth would be to cut the top rate of tax. This gives more disposable income to those who actually will spend it. Although there is no way that cutting the top rate of tax would actually be politically feasible.

regarding FF. Come on, every other party is ****e as well. There are no good political parties in the country. FG policies were virtually exactly the same as FF.