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Is the Lotto above board?

135

Comments

  • #62
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,665 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    The lotto is fair in the sense that each player has the same chance, as long as they don't pick popular numbers.

    This is because they are creaming so much off the top and the govt is saving so much money on spending that they won't kill the golden goose.

    In the UK they go to extreme lengths like using thicker ink on some numbers so all the balls weigh the same.

    yes it's a tax on optimism / hope / dreams


  • #63
    Pythia
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,469 ✭✭✭Pythia


    skelliser wrote: »
    this is nonsense. there are 8145060 combinations. you do 2 lines in the shop. your left with 8145058 possible combinations.
    your odds do not half because you do 2 lines!. by that reckoning if i do ~20 lines i should win

    Agh, no.

    You have a 1/8145060 if you pick only one line (if you were allowed). With two lines, you have a 2/8145060 chance. That number is double the other, therefore the odds are halved.

    I specialised in Financial Maths in my degree yet I still play the Lotto sometimes. You can work out all the stats you want, but the fact is, people get utility from the thrill of the game. You cannot mathematicially map people's behaviour. Yes, there is a negative expected value in this game, but the idea of such a huge win, however small the chance, has a big allure.


  • #64
    Steven
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,241 ✭✭✭Steven


    faceman wrote: »
    Ultimately the chances of winning are minute but as a statistician once told me, "someone has to win".

    Well, no one has to win.

    It's technically possible for the lotto to continue forever without being won again.


  • #65
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,665 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Steven wrote: »
    Well, no one has to win.

    It's technically possible for the lotto to continue forever without being won again.
    not forever.
    for a long time yes but not forever.


  • #66
    Karoma
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,396 ✭✭✭✭Karoma


    Capt'n Midnight wrote: »
    not forever.
    for a long time yes but not forever.

    PEDANTS?! IN MY VAGINA BOARDZ?!


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  • #67
    mikemac
    Closed Accounts Posts: 19,967 ✭✭✭✭mikemac


    ejmaztec wrote: »
    If I ever joined a jackpot-winning syndicate, you can bet your life that the one holding the ticket would feck off with all the money, never to be seen again. Some of us are born losers:(

    It takes a few days to get the money together, well it does for Euromillions anyway.
    So all you do is camp outside HQ on Abbey St.
    Hell, tell the media and they'll do it for you


  • #68
    The Hacker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 61 ✭✭The Hacker


    Flukey wrote: »
    so that halves those odds.
    It doesn't half every time you add a line

    Which is it charlie?


  • #69
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

    yes it's a tax on optimism / hope / dreams

    Always thought taxes were thing you had no choice in.
    At its very worst it deludes people into thinking that there is a quick buck fix to all life's ills.


  • #70
    Fighting Irish
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,062 ✭✭✭Fighting Irish


    Euromillions >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Irish Lotto


  • #71
    witchywoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 87 ✭✭witchywoman


    have ye all not noticed that when its a bank hol, easter, xmas etc its never won and always rolls over? of course its a fix!! the shower who run it should be ashamed of themselves.


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  • #72
    Fighting Irish
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,062 ✭✭✭Fighting Irish


    witchywoman wrote: »
    have ye all not noticed that when its a bank hol, easter, xmas etc its never won and always rolls over? of course its a fix!! the shower who run it should be ashamed of themselves.

    :rolleyes:

    The media always reminds us that the jackpot is big when its near, bh, xmas etc

    When the jackpot is big at most other times during the year it isn't in the papers/news as much


  • #73
    Jesus Wept
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,243 ✭✭✭✭Jesus Wept


    patrickc wrote: »
    ronan collins rigg is it?

    Aye that's him brother! ;)


  • #74
    Wertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 11,909 ✭✭✭✭Wertz


    Fighting Irish wrote: »
    :rolleyes:

    The media always reminds us that the jackpot is big when its near, bh, xmas etc

    When the jackpot is big at most other times during the year it isn't in the papers/news as much

    Interesting to note then that the last big win (the biggest to date) was a 16m jackpot by some cork family; an august BH w/e jackpot that had been rolling over for some 6 1/2weeks from around the 20th of June. Between the June bank holiday and the 20th there was only one winner (4m)...the jackpot for the June BH w/e was won (3m)....prior to that you go back close to Mayday for a large rollover/winner combo.....I can't be arsed digging further back through dates on the lotto website but like I said previously it's more than a cooincidence and certainly more than extra media attention at times of public holidays; the lotto goes near €4-4.5m and you can guarantee at least TV3 will have a full news crew on location someplace to interview would-be winners...not necessarily always around BH's but mostly. Mostly.


  • #75
    JayoCluxton
    Closed Accounts Posts: 78 ✭✭JayoCluxton


    Amazing - such digression from the OP! (I've been banned for less!:)

    All I said was - check it out - that I thought the Quick Picks were dodgy.

    All of a sudden (well after 11 hours) the thread has been hijacked by mathematicians, statisticians, Masters holders and all manner of scientific boffins - and Ireland still doesn't have any nuclear capability - shucks!

    To those who suggest that lotto players are short on math (US version) intellect, I can just imagine Dolores McNamara crying into her rice krispies and Beluga and bemoaning her NG in Inter Cert maths!! :rolleyes::rolleyes:


  • #76
    Rb
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,277 ✭✭✭✭Rb


    The Irish lotto is rigged in favour of everyone outside Dublin.

    I've no proof of this so don't ask for it.


  • #77
    Tinytony
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 525 ✭✭✭Tinytony


    The-Rigger wrote: »
    Because I'm old school and it used to be KPMG, back when what's his name was presenting it, the middle aged guy, does radio too, or used too at least.

    *shrug.

    No your right, it used to be Stokes Kennedy Crowley. They in turn became KPMG.

    And I think Alex Burns was the name of the lad who used to just not and smile?


  • #78
    Wertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 11,909 ✭✭✭✭Wertz


    @rb_ie
    G'wan out of that....everytime I hear a mediocre sized jackpot being won or split it's almost always Dublin. In fairness the countryside always seem to scoop the big ones...


  • #79
    Rb
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,277 ✭✭✭✭Rb


    Wertz wrote: »
    In fairness the countryside always seem to scoop the big ones...

    Exactly!!A co-incidence?I think not!


  • #80
    Wertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 11,909 ✭✭✭✭Wertz


    Hey now, who can really help it if those 6 numbers just happen to be the b'days of the 6 fresians in the lower field? Those city folk don't need all that money anyhow....it'd be much better spent on a new lamborghini...


  • #81
    Hagar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,786 ✭✭✭✭Hagar


    Pythia wrote: »
    Agh, no.

    You have a 1/8145060 if you pick only one line (if you were allowed). With two lines, you have a 2/8145060 chance. That number is double the other, therefore the odds are halved

    I can see what you're saying but odds of 2/8145060 are not equal to 1/4122530 in reality.

    If you buy 1 line you have 1 possible winning combination and 8145059 losing combinations.
    If you buy 2 lines you have 2 possible winning combinations and 8145058 losing combinations.

    You may have doubled your chances of winning but you have not halved your chances of losing. Far from it.


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  • #82
    cornbb
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,790 ✭✭✭cornbb


    JayoCluxton wrote: »
    To those who suggest that lotto players are short on math (US version) intellect, I can just imagine Dolores McNamara crying into her rice krispies and Beluga and bemoaning her NG in Inter Cert maths!! :rolleyes::rolleyes:

    For every Dolores McNamara there are tens/hundreds of thousands of people who lose out financially over long periods. I used to work in a newsagent, people would buy a scratchcard, scratch it, and keep spending and spending, sometimes up to 50 euros in the space of 5 minutes. Any money won would go straight back into buying more of them. Some people were actually profoundly stupid enough to believe that if they won 30 euros after spending 50 they were somehow up!

    The point is that the odds are stacked against you. I can see the attraction of the thrill of the lotto but its a game, the chances of walking away with an 8-figure sum are tiny.


  • #83
    Flukey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,006 ✭✭✭✭Flukey


    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Flukey viewpost.gif
    so that halves those odds.

    Quote:
    It doesn't half every time you add a line
    Which is it charlie?

    Both. Buying the second line halves the odds of having one line, but buying a third line won't halve them again. Oh, and my name isn't Charlie! :p


  • #84
    Pythia
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,469 ✭✭✭Pythia


    Hagar wrote: »
    I can see what you're saying but odds of 2/8145060 are not equal to 1/4122530 in reality.

    If you buy 1 line you have 1 possible winning combination and 8145059 losing combinations.
    If you buy 2 lines you have 2 possible winning combinations and 8145058 losing combinations.

    You may have doubled your chances of winning but you have not halved your chances of losing. Far from it.

    Yes, and 8145058/8145060 = 4122529/4122530. So the probably of winning with two lines is 1/4122530 and losing is (1 - prob of winning) which is 4122529/4122530. So the odds of winning are halved and prob of winning has doubled.


  • #85
    skelliser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,985 ✭✭✭skelliser


    the odds of you winning are NOT halved by goin from one too two lines, all that has happened is you have doubled your chances of winning. You are confusing odds and chances of winning.


  • #86
    Pythia
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,469 ✭✭✭Pythia


    Odds are p(x)/1-p(x) aka p(winning)/p(losing).

    Odds for one line are 1:8145059 (or 0.00000012277381907240)
    Odds for two lines are 1:4072529
    Odds for four lines are 1:2036264.

    As you double your lines, your odds decreae by approx .5 (0.499999939 for the first, 0.499999877 for the second).


  • #87
    Pj!
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,783 ✭✭✭Pj!


    The lotto is for the statistically challenged.


  • #88
    Cianos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,850 ✭✭✭Cianos


    The lotto is obviously overall negative expected value but at the same time if you think your life will be many times better from winning, then that has tonnes of value outside what is calculable as the pure odds of the draw. On top of that you can use the capital for investing, with interest and so on. Not to mention the other ways in which you could use the money as you would see fit, such as donating to charities, securing the future of your family and their families. So while the odds are definitely stacked against you, there are other ways in which some of that loss of value can be made up for.


  • #89
    OPENROAD
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,692 ✭✭✭✭OPENROAD


    According to Artel 1 winner from the West


  • #90
    zuutroy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,854 ✭✭✭zuutroy


    Just skimmed through this thread...LOL is all I have to say....


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  • #91
    testicle
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,426 ✭✭✭testicle


    Capt'n Midnight wrote: »
    not forever.
    for a long time yes but not forever.

    Please explain...


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