Is the Lotto above board?

kleefarr · 20-12-2007 03:29PM

johnp wrote: »

If you played for eternity and the conditions were exactly the same on each roll (perfectly round ball, level table) each number will come up an equal number of times with a random throw.
I guess that doesn't happen in reality, coz the ball will become imperfect, the table will become wobbly(!), but I'm pretty sure the maths is correct.

Conditions will never be exactly the same. The balls will be in a different postion everytime the draw machine is started giving a totally different result. The same goes for a roulette wheel. It is not possible for the numbers to come up equal amounts of times for definite.

johnp · 20-12-2007 03:30PM

skelliser wrote: »

well a random number generator's output isnt exactly random

If you're talking about computers, then your right. Computers can only do what they're told to do. You have to tell it how to pick a random number.
In saying that sometimes my code does things that I don't think it should. Generally turns out that the computer is right

My head hurts with all this numbers talk.

RobAMerc · 20-12-2007 03:32PM

i think it would be quite simple for them to pick a combination thats not been picked for the few weeks before a big occasion then pick a winning combo as the winner, nothing to it.

they could also tell if theres a winner seconds after the draw - never mind the sh*te regarding waiting till the news or that to announce it.

As for the scratch cards and spin the wheel bull - there is absolutely 0 chance in them at all.

Do they ever announce the portion of wins they have per scratch cards bought ?

Tax the poor - give to the charities. pat yourself on the back.

johnp · 20-12-2007 03:34PM

kleefarr wrote: »

Conditions will never be exactly the same. The balls will be in a different postion everytime the draw machine is started giving a totally different result. The same goes for a roulette wheel. It is not possible for the numbers to come up equal amounts of times for definite.

True, that's the only thing that can be different. If it were put in the exact same way every time and all other conditions were exactly the same, then the same 1 number would keep coming out.

But when there is just one random event (putting the ball in), then there's an equal chance of each number coming out. Play for ever and each number will be hit an equal number of times.

Pigman II · 20-12-2007 03:34PM

I stood waiting an hour for a bus and then 3 came along at once

Therefore I conclude that the Dublin Bus lottery is rigged!

godtabh · 20-12-2007 03:36PM

faceman wrote: »

you just melted by brain with that comment!

I just melted my brain with some of the other comments here!

For all practicalities each number out of the drum and each number picked in quick picker has equal chance of happening.

Same goes for the roulette wheel.

Flukey · 20-12-2007 03:43PM

well a random number generator's output isnt exactly random

If you're talking about computers, then your right. Computers can only do what they're told to do. You have to tell it how to pick a random number.

That is not strictly true. There are ways of writing programs that produce truely random numbers. There are functions and commands in some programming languages that are used to generate random numbers, and they are the ones that produce the numbers that are not totally random. So you don't use them. What you can do is write a program that takes a value from the system clock at the moment you hit a key and then generate a random number off that. So that is totally down to when you randomly hit a key. If you are doing something like a quick pick, you obviously have to restrict it to 45 numbers and ensure that no number is duplicated, both of which are simple to do.

Jesus Wept · 20-12-2007 03:50PM

You are less likely to share the main prize with someone else if you do a quickpick. :cool:

JayoCluxton · 20-12-2007 03:51PM

The whole point of the thread is questioning whether or not all things are equal or indeed whether all things are as they should be! Hopefully when we get a reply to that letter to KPMG all things will be clearer.:)

My original point is that I think that the Quick Pick numbers are dodgy and I won't do them any more. I'll pick numbers based on things like the number of hangovers I had at Xmas (38), the number of people in front of me at the shop who producer a Laser card at the last minute (24), the amount of Premiership teams that end up all over the newspapers after their Xmas party (20) etc, etc.

Other than that I'm willing to take my chances same as everyone else and continue to support the many fine community based projects which are ably assisted by my peccadillo.

johnp · 20-12-2007 04:03PM

JayoCluxton wrote: »

The whole point of the thread is questioning whether or not all things are equal or indeed whether all things are as they should be! Hopefully when we get a reply to that letter to KPMG all things will be clearer.:)

My original point is that I think that the Quick Pick numbers are dodgy and I won't do them any more. I'll pick numbers based on things like the number of hangovers I had at Xmas (38), the number of people in front of me at the shop who producer a Laser card at the last minute (24), the amount of Premiership teams that end up all over the newspapers after their Xmas party (20) etc, etc.

Other than that I'm willing to take my chances same as everyone else and continue to support the many fine community based projects which are ably assisted by my peccadillo.

Perfectly random

cornbb · 20-12-2007 04:11PM

Believe what you want to Jayo, the numbers you pick based on number of hangovers etc are anything but random. No matter, you'll have precisely the same chance of winning no matter what numbers you pick. And those aren't very good either.

johnp · 20-12-2007 04:16PM

Flukey wrote: »

That is not strictly true. There are ways of writing programs that produce truely random numbers. There are functions and commands in some programming languages that are used to generate random numbers, and they are the ones that produce the numbers that are not totally random. So you don't use them. What you can do is write a program that takes a value from the system clock at the moment you hit a key and then generate a random number off that. So that is totally down to when you randomly hit a key. If you are doing something like a quick pick, you obviously have to restrict it to 45 numbers and ensure that no number is duplicated, both of which are simple to do.

That sounds pretty random to me. It's not quite sticking your hand into a hat an pulling out a number, but then again, how far do you have to go to be completely random!

20-12-2007 04:16PM

This discussion is pointless, I've already called dibbs on the 13 million.

kleefarr · 20-12-2007 04:20PM

johnp wrote: »

True, that's the only thing that can be different. If it were put in the exact same way every time and all other conditions were exactly the same, then the same 1 number would keep coming out.

But when there is just one random event (putting the ball in), then there's an equal chance of each number coming out. Play for ever and each number will be hit an equal number of times.

Equal chance, yes. Equal amount of times, Impossible.

pebbles21 · 20-12-2007 04:35PM

Also any time we are approaching a Bank Holiday or Easter or Paddys Day there is a massive rollover.

wonder if you can bet with betting sites if the jackpot is won or not???

johnp · 20-12-2007 04:36PM

kleefarr wrote: »

Equal chance, yes. Equal amount of times, Impossible.

OK, maybe not equal amount of times, but the % of times each number that comes out will be so close that it won't matter.

Ruu_Old · 20-12-2007 04:38PM

That chap from Stokes Kennedy Crowley gives the nod for the signal.

JayoCluxton · 20-12-2007 04:44PM

Ruu wrote: »

That chap from Stokes Kennedy Crowley gives the nod for the signal.

Thought that - dunno why the Rigger is writing to KPMG so

skelliser · 20-12-2007 04:55PM

Flukey wrote: »

You are wrong. There are 8,145,060 possible combinations of numbers that can be drawn. So any given line has a 1 in 8,145,060 chance of being drawn. You have to buy a minimum of 2 lines, so that halves those odds.

this is nonsense. there are 8145060 combinations. you do 2 lines in the shop. your left with 8145058 possible combinations.
your odds do not half because you do 2 lines!. by that reckoning if i do ~20 lines i should win

TripleAce · 20-12-2007 04:58PM

Lotto is just for people who are VERY bad at maths and don't know what the odds are.

People get impressed by huge prizes, but are VERY small in proportions of the mathematical chances to get the numbers right.

Also you can pick ANY number and you will have the exact same probability for it to come out...ie. if you pick 7-12-23-30-34-42 you DON'T have better chances to win than if you pick 1-2-3-4-5-6

People just don't seem to get this...I don't have the mathematical probability handy for the lotto, but in terms of fairness in the payout, the most fair game is the roulette, where you have almost 48% (black vs red) of victory for an even paid prize. The edge against you is given by the number 0 (zero).

Lotto? Waste of money.

Jesus Wept · 20-12-2007 06:01PM

JayoCluxton wrote: »

Thought that - dunno why the Rigger is writing to KPMG so

Because I'm old school and it used to be KPMG, back when what's his name was presenting it, the middle aged guy, does radio too, or used too at least.

*shrug.

ScumLord · 20-12-2007 06:05PM

TripleAce wrote: »

Lotto is just for people who are VERY bad at maths and don't know what the odds are.

People get impressed by huge prizes, but are VERY small in proportions of the mathematical chances to get the numbers right.

Yeah but, what if you win?

cornbb · 20-12-2007 06:22PM

ScumLord wrote: »

Yeah but, what if you win?

If you win you are lucky. You are far more likely to lose money.

patrickc · 20-12-2007 06:29PM

The-Rigger wrote: »

Because I'm old school and it used to be KPMG, back when what's his name was presenting it, the middle aged guy, does radio too, or used too at least.

*shrug.

ronan collins rigg is it?

jameshayes · 20-12-2007 06:30PM

if there are 40000 active users on boards, and we made a syndicate at 1.50 each that would give us 40000 lines.

I think that could give us a good shoe in at a big prize...

RoyalMarine · 20-12-2007 06:45PM

kearnsr wrote: »

Each number has an equal chance of big pulled. THey arent weighted in any way. If the draw was to happen to till the end of time each number would come out an equal amount of times (i think).

Lotto Frequency Table
Check out how often each number has been drawn in the Lotto 6/45 Saturday and Wednesday draws (including
Bonus number).

Percentages:

1=18.3% 2=17.2% 3=17.1% 4=17.8%
5=15.9% 6=16.3% 7=16.3% 8=15.1%
9=18.4% 10=17.1% 11=18.6% 12=16.1%
13=17.7% 14=18.9% 15=16.7% 16=17.2%
17=14.9% 18=17.7% 19=15.9% 20=16.8%
21=17.3% 22=16.2% 23=16.1% 24=16.7%
25=15.7% 26=14.4% 27=15.6% 28=17.1%
29=14.6% 30=15.6% 31=16% 32=18.3%
33=14.2% 34=17.1% 35=15.8% 36=16.8%
37=16% 38=15.9% 39=16.8% 40=15.6%
41=16.6% 42=15.8% 43=14.4% 44=18.6%
45=10.1%

* NOTE: The numbers 43, 44 and 45 were introduced on the 28th October, 2006
Totals:

1=257 2=241 3=239 4=250 5=223
6=228 7=228 8=211 9=258 10=239
11=261 12=226 13=248 14=265 15=234
16=241 17=209 18=248 19=223 20=236
21=242 22=227 23=226 24=234 25=220
26=202 27=218 28=239 29=205 30=219
31=224 32=257 33=199 34=240 35=221
36=235 37=224 38=223 39=235 40=219
41=233 42=221 43=17 44=22 45=12

skelliser · 20-12-2007 06:57PM

jameshayes wrote: »

if there are 40000 active users on boards, and we made a syndicate at 1.50 each that would give us 40000 lines.

I think that could give us a good shoe in at a big prize...

so if we got 100 users and spent 600euro each we would get the eqivalent of 40000 lines, now whos game?

average jackpot is 2 million and we won that would give us a cool 20 grand each!

lets roll!

ScumLord · 20-12-2007 07:19PM

skelliser wrote: »

so if we got 100 users and spent 600euro each we would get the eqivalent of 40000 lines, now whos game?

average jackpot is 2 million and we won that would give us a cool 20 grand each!

lets roll!

We're sure to win! :cool:

Flukey · 20-12-2007 08:47PM

skelliser wrote: »

this is nonsense. there are 8145060 combinations. you do 2 lines in the shop. your left with 8145058 possible combinations.
your odds do not half because you do 2 lines!. by that reckoning if i do ~20 lines i should win

It doesn't half every time you add a line, so you are wrong. That is not what I said. If you do 2 lines, you'll have 2 in 8,145,060 or 1 in 4,072,530 chances of winning. If you did 20 lines, you'd have 20 in 8,145,060 or 1 in 407,253.

Wertz · 20-12-2007 10:49PM

On the point of rollovers, anyone who's been doing the lottery for a few years will have doubtlessly noticed the strange effect that public holidays like easter, Patrick's day, xmas, june BH w/e and whatever seem to have on the draws in the weeks running up to that date. It's past the point of cooincidence to the stage where you have to think that someone is tampering somehow with the machine/balls/broadcast.... I don't really care how many adjudicators are present, something to me is amiss.
It would be interesting to see hard data on rollovers cooinciding with BH w/es or public holidays over the last decade or so....but I really don't think it's our imaginations (I'm certtainly not the only one who's ever noticed this convenient trend)

BTW to those people talking about tax on the mathematically challenged, etc, go and find another cliché; that's getting almost as bad as the one about cocaine and it being god's way of telling you you've too much money....neither statement is original or funny any more no matter how true they may be...

Is the Lotto above board?

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