The big 4 are top but where will they finish?

whatawaster · 04-12-2007 12:33PM

i took a half hour out of my busy work schedule to complete the BBC score predictor right up to the end of the season

1. Arsenal 93
2. Liverpool 86
3. Man Utd 83
4. Chelsea 83
5. Aston Villa 70
6. Everton 67
7. Portsmouth 65
8. Blackburn 62
9. Man City 59
10. West Ham 52
11. Newcastle 51
12. Tottenham 50
13. Reading 44
14. Fulham 41
15. Sunderland 37
16. Birmingham 34
17. Bolton 31
18. Middlesbrough 28
19. Wigan 27
20. Derby 16

whatawaster · 04-12-2007 12:37PM

PHB wrote: »

Cup games are won by getting through, either through winning the games or getting a draw and getting penalties. Liverpool for some reason are incredibly good at penos (indeed their ability at them surely has to cast doubt on the idea that it's a 50/50)
Take for example, the last time Liverpool played Chelsea in the champions league. They were down by one goal from the first leg, got a goal back, and then, and I have no doubt about this, played for penalties. They then won on penalties. Indeed, once Liverpool got back from 3-0 down, instead of pushing on for a fourth (which they could have gotten if you looked at the state of the Milan defense) they sat back and played for penos. This is something you cannot do in a league game, and won't be like a cup final for Liverpool at all.

you weren't watching the same game then. Chelsea barely had a chance in that match, we had a perfectly good goal disallowed and generally played much better than them. You know we done something right when Dunphy and the lads were complimentary after the game.

~Rebel~ · 04-12-2007 12:37PM

PHB wrote: »

Take for example, the last time Liverpool played Chelsea in the champions league. They were down by one goal from the first leg, got a goal back, and then, and I have no doubt about this, played for penalties.

I dont know about that, Pool still kept making chances, and Kuyt scored a winner which was very dubiously ruled out for offside.

PHB · 04-12-2007 12:41PM

I remember Kuyt scored a winner, and I thought Liverpool were the better team as deserved to win probably, but I still think Rafa wants the penos. And why wouldn't he? He always wins on them.

Hobart · 04-12-2007 01:00PM

PHB wrote: »

Cup games are won by getting through, either through winning the games or getting a draw and getting penalties. Liverpool for some reason are incredibly good at penos (indeed their ability at them surely has to cast doubt on the idea that it's a 50/50)
Take for example, the last time Liverpool played Chelsea in the champions league. They were down by one goal from the first leg, got a goal back, and then, and I have no doubt about this, played for penalties. They then won on penalties. Indeed, once Liverpool got back from 3-0 down, instead of pushing on for a fourth (which they could have gotten if you looked at the state of the Milan defense) they sat back and played for penos. This is something you cannot do in a league game, and won't be like a cup final for Liverpool at all.

Some of what you say is factual, the rest is pure speculation, but it's completely at odds at what you said in your previous post. What it seems to boil down to, in you opinion, is that Liverpool have a better record at taking penalties than most other teams...~shrug~~ tbh.

Your assertion about the CL final is conjecture, and I will treat it as such. I was actually at the semi with Chelsea, and believe me Liverpool, nor Chelsea for that matter, played for penalties, it's simply not true imo. I do remember Manu loosing a cup game to Chelsea on peno's, maybe they are not as good at it as Liverpool. The fact is that some games (cup and league) can be won on penalties, simple really.

When you factor in how some players try to cod the referee, some more successful than most, games and by default leagues can be won on penalties, which really makes your sig quite amusing. I'm not saying it has happened, and although it's not probable, it is possible.

PHB · 04-12-2007 01:08PM

Would you like me to change my signature to 'You can't win the premiership on penalty shootouts?'
Would that make you feel better?

Hobart · 04-12-2007 01:16PM

PHB wrote: »

Would you like me to change my signature to 'You can't win the premiership on penalty shootouts?'
Would that make you feel better?

Lollers....yea, sure PHB. Why don't you just try and rebut the argument instead of being childish about "your sig".

Don't be worrying about my well-being or trying to make me feel better, I'm just fine, thanks all the same

.

gosplan · 04-12-2007 01:23PM

Nailz wrote: »

Manchester United
Arsenal
Liverpool
Chelsea

United have excellent fire power and a strong defence. Despite losing a number of key players in Neville for all of the season so far, Scholes for 2 more months after being out for 1 already, Rooney for 2 terms and a few others along the way...

Arsenal have had an excellant time this season, but they didn't hit their bad patch yet and will be losing many players to the African Cup of Nations. And as we learned in 2003, under presure Wenger can bottle it.

Liverpool are doing grand but by the end of the season will lack in consistancy. Torres is your only damaging player, and has been playing well but if he gets injured your gonna lose lots of points over it.

Chelsea have lost too much points already to come near enough to the top 2 positions. And you'll be losing players like Drogba, Essien & Mikel to the African Cup of nations in the new year.

Total joke. Apart from 'united supporter' in your signature, very little else of your post is true.

whatawaster · 04-12-2007 01:26PM

PHB wrote: »

Would you like me to change my signature to 'You can't win the premiership on penalty shootouts?'
Would that make you feel better?

It would probably hurt us more if you just said "you can't win the premiership"

redspider · 04-12-2007 01:38PM

whatawaster wrote: »

1. Arsenal 93
2. Liverpool 86
3. Man Utd 83
4. Chelsea 83

I think the league is shaping up to be something similar to this. Arsenal look the most likely to win it, BUT things dont generally stay the same in football for too long and there is a long way to go. They will probably have a hiccup or two at some stage, and sometimes when confidence goes at Arsenal it can be telling with a 20-chance match still ending in a draw, points dropped, etc. They may avoid such a bad run though and their psychology may be tougher this year. It looks that way but only time will tell. Liverpool, Man Utd, and Chelsea are in the mix but are too close to call overall, and some have shown more flaws than others.

I dont know what the order will be but its looking like Arsenal are in pole position and any of the other 3 could sneak it or end up 2nd. I think most people's money is on Arsenal and Man Utd at this stage.

One thing is for sure though, these will be the top-4 teams barring a miracle, and the race this year is shaping up to be a closer one. It would be good for once to see all 4 teams battling it all the way to the wire. To me, the league can be an anti-climatic competition viewing-wise when a club wins it drip-drip-drip slowly and is akin to watching paint dry at times, ala Chelsea a few seasons ago.

Redspider

AdrianII · 04-12-2007 01:47PM

Obviously everyone here is gonna back there own team to win it.

Im a liverpool fan, id love to see us win it, but i believe Arsenal will win the title, followed by chelsea and man u/pool fighting for 3rd place.

utd arent the same team without ronaldo and if he gets injured they are screwed ( uniteds backups arent great tbh), same scenario for liverpool with torres.

Hope im wrong though

Going with the head

Arsenal
Chelsea
Pool
Utd

Going with the Heart

pool
Arsenal
Chelsea
MAN CITY ( aint gonna happen though)

Hobart · 04-12-2007 04:55PM

AdrianII wrote: »

Obviously everyone here is gonna back there own team to win it.

Im a liverpool fan, id love to see us win it, but i believe Arsenal will win the title, followed by chelsea and man u/pool fighting for 3rd place.

utd arent the same team without ronaldo and if he gets injured they are screwed ( uniteds backups arent great tbh), same scenario for liverpool with torres.

Hope im wrong though

Going with the head

Arsenal
Chelsea
Pool
Utd

Going with the Heart

pool
Arsenal
Chelsea
MAN CITY ( aint gonna happen though)

Lol with the heart option, but it's not going to happen. I agree with your initial prediction, although I live in hope....:)

IrishMike · 04-12-2007 06:00PM

I can see the league being won by either Liverpool or United tbh.
I think Drogba, kalou and mikel all heading to African nations will seriously hurt chelsea.
They are not half as dangerous without Drogba and Shevchenko cant play as a link man.

Arsenal will lose Adebayour(sp?) who is their top scorer and is flying at the moment.
Toure and eboue will be huge losses.
Liverpool will lose Sissoko, with the way he is playing is actually a good thing.

Off the top of my head United wont lose any first team players.
Think this will have a huge impact.
If liverpool can keep scoring they are my tip

Pepe LeFrits · 04-12-2007 06:11PM

IrishMike wrote: »

Arsenal will lose Adebayour(sp?) who is their top scorer and is flying at the moment.

He isn't going to the African Nations and Fabregas is the club's top scorer.

IrishMike · 04-12-2007 08:20PM

Pepe LeFrits wrote: »

He isn't going to the African Nations and Fabregas is the club's top scorer.

I apologise, he is top scorer in the league.
Didnt realise he wasnt going to the African Nations.

OPENROAD · 04-12-2007 08:24PM

1. Arsenal
2. Man Utd
3. Chelsea
4.Liverpool.

Hopefully Arsenal will remain unbeaten this season have them backed at 50/1.

GuanYin · 04-12-2007 09:04PM

Interesting to look at the effect of the ANC on how the league will pan out. Certainly it looks like Chelsea and Arsenal will be hardest hit, which will give hope to United and Pool.

As others pointed out, Drogba and Essien may be losses that Chelsea can't cope with. Sidwell is not good enough as far as I can tell and they seem to have nothing up front without Drogba.

Arsenal will be hard hit by the loss of Toure, especially seeing as Senderos just doesn't look up to it. Gilberto may have a job to do at the back, but I think Arsenal have shown that not only is their squad stronger than many had thought, but they are also more than capable without the likes of Van Persie and Fabregas.

I think alot of people forget what a good player Van Persie is, assuming he stays fit and doesn't disrupt the team by his return, he may prove an even further gear for Arsenal to move up in the new year. Hleb has been phenomenal at times. It's funny how like with Pires. alot of people didn't rate him when he first arrived, but he's become a real cornerstone to what the Arsenal team is all about.

United look like United. Hungry, relentless and solid. Tevez and Rooney look like they are gelling and Ronaldo has burst into form. Only concern is their cover up front. While they are no way as poorly off as Chelsea... the likes of Saha just don't do it for me. I still think they are the most obvious choice to pick as champions, but it will depend on how much you fancy Arsenal this season.

Liverpool look typically at odds. One week they are winning easily, another week they are poor. Mascherano looks to have really developed for them this season (and any challange will depend on keeping him - he's only on loan, right?) and Torres and Gerrard are firing well. I honestly think that Liverpool could be hampered by boardroom politics if they don't cop on. Benitez's departure, were it to happen, would probably derail the team.

All that in mind.

Arsenal
United
Liverpool
Chelsea

for me.

PHB · 04-12-2007 09:09PM

Arsenal will be hard hit by the loss of Toure, especially seeing as Senderos just doesn't look up to it.

Djoura will instantly slot in ahead of Sendoros. He is certainly better than him. Obviously it'll still be a weak ink, but not as much. I think the effect of the ANC is not as strong on Arsenal as people make out.

I think it'll be tough on Chelsea, but I think they have the depth. I am beginning to fear that Shevchenko is starting to regain his form, and by the ANC time, he will get a good run of games, and I think he might start scoring. Essien is a huge loss, but they have cover in midfield. I expect Makelele to play a lot there, but with Mikel, Makelele, Ballack, Lampard and Sidwell, they have more than enough in midfield. Ballack is often lumped in with Shevchenko as a flop, but I thought he was quite good last year.

Hobart · 04-12-2007 10:51PM

I think Arsenal have proven their strenght in depth and they will more than be able to cover for the loss of Toure (albeit quite a big one). I suspect that it will be Sendoros who will slot in for Toure as a natural CB.

PHB, I presume when you say Djoura, you actually mean Djourou? I thought he was away on loan at Birmingham? I don't know that much about the player, but a quick search shows that he is not a natural CB. I'd be surprised if he slotted in, when Sendoros is available.

Sheva, well I'm yet to be convinced as to his current form. I'll be astounded if he has a sudden lift. Mikel will definately fill a part of the gap left thru the departure of Essien, Lampard will also step up to the mark. I can see Chelsea really gellng at the moment, and I don't think the ANC will have that much of an affect, given the depth of their squad.

I think a huge part of Liverpools season depends on the game against Manu in 12 days time. Liverpool have traditionally been very very strong after the Christmas break, and are unbeaten this year. If they win/draw against Manu, I feel that they could go on to challenge for the title. I'm not convinced that they will win the title, but I feel that they will be a hell of a lot closer this year, despite the premature "out of it by christmas" merchants that love to knock them at every turn.

Manu will, of course, be a huge factor. Ronaldo looks awesome at the moment, and his ability and confidence knows no bounds. Rooney can really turn it on at times. I'm not convinced by Tevez a this stage, and there are, for me, too many players along for the ride, with Saha, Giggs and Carrick being the obvious ones in the squad, to convince me that Utd can do it this year.

Unearthly · 04-12-2007 11:32PM

Hobart wrote: »

I
Sheva, well I'm yet to be convinced as to his current form. I'll be astounded if he has a sudden lift. Mikel will definately fill a part of the gap left thru the departure of Essien, Lampard will also step up to the mark. I can see Chelsea really gellng at the moment, and I don't think the ANC will have that much of an affect, given the depth of their squad.

I think John Obi MIkel is part of the Nigerian squad so he'll be gone to.

Essien, Drogba, Mikel, Kalou. Chelsea will miss them regardless of who else they have imo

Hobart · 04-12-2007 11:46PM

Unearthly wrote: »

I think John Obi MIkel is part of the Nigerian squad so he'll be gone to.

Essien, Drogba, Mikel, Kalou. Chelsea will miss them regardless of who else they have imo

He is indeed. My point still stands in that Chelsea, although missing a few key players, have strenght in depth to absorb this, more so than most teams.

Lets not forget that this is not a WC campaign, it's a tournie played over 3 weeks.

GuanYin · 04-12-2007 11:59PM

Hobart wrote: »

He is indeed. My point still stands in that Chelsea, although missing a few key players, have strenght in depth to absorb this, more so than most teams.

Lets not forget that this is not a WC campaign, it's a tournie played over 3 weeks.

Only if you believe Chelsea's squad is actually that strong.

I don't believe they have replacements for Drogba and Essien. At least not replacements to keep pace with Arsenal and United.

3 weeks can be 12 points....

Pepe LeFrits · 05-12-2007 12:02AM

Djourou was a defensive midfielder when Arsenal signed him and he says that is his preferred position, but he has played at CB for his entire Arsenal career, bar one (meaningless) game at the end of last season. I liken him to a young Rio Ferdinand; tall, quick and strong, good on the ball, but not the most natural defender. I'm not sure he'll slot straight in, as Wenger seemed less than certain he would return from loan in January. Probably another one for 08/09.

GuanYin · 05-12-2007 12:12AM

Pepe LeFrits wrote: »

Djourou was a defensive midfielder when Arsenal signed him and he says that is his preferred position, but he has played at CB for his entire Arsenal career, bar one (meaningless) game at the end of last season.

Does anyone still think that Wenger even considers where a player plays before he signs them for Arsenal?

mike65 · 05-12-2007 12:15AM

Nope, he thinks of players as being globs of mercury.

Mike.

Hobart · 05-12-2007 12:22AM

psi wrote: »

Only if you believe Chelsea's squad is actually that strong.

I do think that they are a strong squad, probably the one with the most depth.

I don't believe they have replacements for Drogba and Essien. At least not replacements to keep pace with Arsenal and United.

Firstly up front they have Shevchenko, Pizzaro and Sinclar as replacements. They also have a good few forwards due back from loan in Jan iirc.

Secondly the pick of Lampard, Cole, Makelelee(sp?), Ballack (no idea when he is due back), Malouda and Philips to choose from.

Thirdly, it might not be Arsenal and manu that they are only concerned about

3 weeks can be 12 points....

Afaik Chelsea have 4 games to play during the ANC. 3 of them are against Pompey, Reading and Brum. I'll leave it up to others to decide the gravity of their situation.

Hobart · 05-12-2007 12:24AM

psi wrote: »

Does anyone still think that Wenger even considers where a player plays before he signs them for Arsenal?

I presume you are doing the ironing?

An Citeog · 05-12-2007 12:56AM

Hobart wrote: »

Afaik Chelsea have 4 games to play during the ANC. 3 of them are against Pompey, Reading and Brum. I'll leave it up to others to decide the gravity of their situation.

Will Pompey even be able to field a team during the ANC?!

OPENROAD · 05-12-2007 01:40AM

An Citeog wrote: »

Will Pompey even be able to field a team during the ANC?!

They certainly will be hit hard.

emc2 · 05-12-2007 09:41AM

An Citeog wrote: »

Will Pompey even be able to field a team during the ANC?!

Harry said during the week that they'd have a squad of 14 during the ANC and that he'll need to bring in a few players during the transfer window.

The big 4 are top but where will they finish?

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