Fatal WSOP hand; bad play or bad luck?

jacQues · 07-08-2006 11:53AM #1

First day, midnight. After 12 hours being on the same table with roughly the same people (four got knocked out and replaced), the table gets broken up.

So onwards to a new table with a 11K stack. The average stack at this time is about 17K I think, so not great but also not too bad.

At 0:30 am, after half an hour at the table I get dealt KK. The blinds at that stage are 150 / 300 with an 25 ante. Its folded to me and I raise from UTG+3 to 1,000, since that seemed to be the correct raise to get exactly one caller. Fair enough, I get one caller; the BB. I didn't see him play any hand so no idea what type of player he is etc. He also has about 11K.

Flop: Kc Js Tc

He checks, I bet 2,000. Normally I would check with the top set but there are simply too many draws here so I bet. He min-raises to 4,000. I move all-in. He calls, showing A Q off-suit (no clubs). I am disgusted. The turn and river don't pair the board, so I'm out. Well, I actually had him covered with 450 chips but the antes plus the BB that moved quickly towards me meant I had to gamble and no luck.

Comments please.

El Stuntman · 07-08-2006 12:00PM

jacQues wrote:

First day, midnight. After 12 hours being on the same table with roughly the same people (four got knocked out and replaced), the table gets broken up.

So onwards to a new table with a 11K stack. The average stack at this time is about 17K I think, so not great but also not too bad.

At 0:30 am, after half an hour at the table I get dealt KK. The blinds at that stage are 150 / 300 with an 25 ante. Its folded to me and I raise from UTG+3 to 1,000, since that seemed to be the correct raise to get exactly one caller. Fair enough, I get one caller; the BB. I didn't see him play any hand so no idea what type of player he is etc. He also has about 11K.

Flop: Kc Js Tc

He checks, I bet 2,000. Normally I would check with the top set but there are simply too many draws here so I bet. He min-raises to 4,000. I move all-in. He calls, showing A Q off-suit (no clubs). I am disgusted. The turn and river don't pair the board, so I'm out. Well, I actually had him covered with 450 chips but the antes plus the BB that moved quickly towards me meant I had to gamble and no luck.

Comments please.

hard luck - don't see how you could have done anything different

Fatboydim · 07-08-2006 12:06PM

A bit of both I guess. It's always awful to get moved to a new table and get dealt a hand before you can work out how the new players are playing.

The flop is absolutely cruel. But I think once he's check raised you you have to give him credit for the hand. I think what I might have done is fold showing my kings... sending out a clear message to the rest of the table... and then try bluffing a pot a few hands later to get my chips back.

But that's easy to say from here.

Equally you can't kick yourself for going all in and asking the question. If he was drawing to an ace or queen [holding pockets of either] then you're making him pay for the draw. I may well have put him on queens... But the minimum reraise looks so much like an invite for you to push all in.

Unlucky jacQues - on another day the board pairs and you double up.

Gholimoli · 07-08-2006 01:24PM

pre-flop was fine.
your bet on the flop was fine.
i wouldnt push there though after the min riase.
you have position on him so just call and hope for the board to pair.
he would prob make a bet on the turn trying to milk you which you will have to pay.
u cant say you played it bad really cuz there are so many draws but the min raise there usually mins the nuts.

rag2gar · 07-08-2006 01:33PM

I think you have just been unlucky, like there is no worse a flop you could have hit. I think put 20 pros in your situation and each one will play the same, sure if your folding these type of hands cause you arnt ahead of "every possible situation" cant work either.

Dont know about folding and showing the hand either as you are basically telling the table that your not afraid to fold a hand and they will exploit that fact accordingly.

Unlucky none the less.....

Fatboydim · 07-08-2006 01:48PM

It depends on your table. rag - But I was in a pot with a guy in Vienna and he folded queens to me and showed them. I showed him my bluff. This did two things... The guy with the queens was able to bluff pots because everyone thought he was an absolute rock. So he also had a clearer idea where he was when people bet against him. At the same time the rest of the table thought I was a lunatic and I got them to put all their chips in when I wanted them to.

When you ask most pros about the best hand they ever played they will recall this kind of laydown. It's very difficult to do.

The only questionable sequence of play here for jacque's is what he wanted from the 2k bet on the flop. His oppo played it very well because it's clear what he wanted. But this play was after a 12hr stint and a table move.

The only other way to have played it was to raise up higher pre-flop... But could have had same result anyway.

jacQues · 07-08-2006 02:43PM

Fatboydim wrote:

But this play was after a 12hr stint and a table move.

I definitely wasn't as awake as I should have been indeed. I've already decided not to go to the WSOP next year unless they change the format. I don't mind a big field of 10,000 players, but 15 hours of play a day is crazy.

Fatboydim wrote:

The only other way to have played it was to raise up higher pre-flop... But could have had same result anyway.

I raised the amount to get exactly one caller. In the two orbits I saw raises to 1,200 total resulted in a blind steal and raises to 800 total resulted in more than one caller. I wanted a caller, as my playstyle doesn't revolve around blind stealing.

Gholimoli wrote:

you have position on him so just call and hope for the board to pair.

With all due respect. I think calling is the worst option here. I have no clue what the BB has nor how he plays. Any scare card and I am folding to a bet, as the only bet he could do on the turn is all-in. If it was deep stacked I probably would have called here. But committing 2,000 additional chips = 5,000 chips total = half my stack...without any information?

There are too many hands on which the BB could have check-raised here. Like a Q-high flush draw or maybe Q 9. I felt that pushing would make him fold Q 9 since I could easily have A Q (looking at my actions). Even if he had A Q or called with Q 9 I still had like a 40%(?) chance to win. If I had -say- QQ or JJ I would do the exact same (check-minraise). I've gotten checks on the turn this way a lot in the WSOP, making my draw relatively cheap and my opponent guessing.

jacQues

rag2gar · 07-08-2006 04:26PM

Perhaps he should have considered the A-Q but i think more often than not the raise to 4000 is a probe bet or betting a draw, i maintain this was bad luck than bad play

Hectorjelly · 07-08-2006 04:47PM

Im glad im back for this thread. Jaques you played the hand perfectly - that min raise wont always be the nuts. Folding is absolutely out of the question, you will often have the best hand and when you dont you will still win 1/3 of the time. Folding to his min raise would be awfull, showing it then would be clearly insane. You may as well put a sign on your head saying bluff me. If the stacks were deeper then calling would be an option as gholi suggested, but I think pushing is better.

valor · 07-08-2006 04:59PM

This is just a cooler

Goodluck2me · 07-08-2006 06:00PM

agreed. you cant play it much differently imo. you could maybe fold here as if youve been caught in the cookie jar, rather than showing a monster.

fuzzbox · 07-08-2006 07:51PM

Played perfectly - tough break that he has AQ this time, and that the board doesnt pair. He can have all sorts of hands that he likes that you are ahead of, and if he does have the straight, then you still win 1/3 of the time.

Dropping your stack with top set is nothing to be ashamed of.

fuzzbox · 07-08-2006 07:52PM

To all those who say that they would fold :

I dont believe ANY of you.

That is all.

Fatboydim · 07-08-2006 08:07PM

Hectorjelly wrote:

Folding is absolutely out of the question, you will often have the best hand and when you dont you will still win 1/3 of the time. Folding to his min raise would be awfull, showing it then would be clearly insane.

How can folding be out of the question? It is an option. Not one you're going to take all the time. But it is an option. I have laid top set down in this type of situation although when it happened to me we were already at the river and no cards to come. I also showed my set and got shown the straight. If that happens they think you can see into their souls. But it depends how you feel... what reads your getting etc etc. If you just go by the math then Hector's right. But poker is so much more than that.

Fatboydim · 07-08-2006 08:09PM

fuzzbox wrote:

To all those who say that they would fold :

I dont believe ANY of you.

That is all.

That's me I guess.:D

fuzzbox · 07-08-2006 08:16PM

Fatboydim wrote:

How can folding be out of the question? It is an option. Not one you're going to take all the time. But it is an option. I have laid top set down in this type of situation although when it happened to me we were already at the river and no cards to come. I also showed my set and got shown the straight. If that happens they think you can see into their souls. But it depends how you feel... what reads your getting etc etc. If you just go by the math then Hector's right. But poker is so much more than that.

Folding here is a very big mistake.
Not getting all in here is a very big mistake.

This particular time he happened to have AQ, and we didnt draw out. Other times he has JJ or TT or QcJc or 9cTc or AcKx or KQ or .... etc.

So - give that the pot preflop is 2.1k, and we bet 2000 on the flop and he minraised to 4000. We now would have to risk 8000 more to win the current pot of 8.1k now, and if he calls ... 14k.

If we are behind to AQ, then we win 1/3 of the time (getting 14:8 odds, we are making a very small mistake by pushing),
but if we are ahead of JJ/TT/KJ/KT/TJ then we win 98% of the time.
If he has some sort of big draw then we likely are 60-75% favourite.
(folding for a minraise, is making a MASSIVE mistake in both spots).

This is such a clear shove.

Fatboydim · 07-08-2006 09:03PM

Yes the maths are correct. No dispute at all.

Like I've said the problem here is not having enough info on the player as jacQues has just moved table. Probably eight times out of ten I push and twice I fold. But that's me. And it's probably why I'm a terrible cash game player.

So Fuzz... Do you still call if you know he has AQ? Not a trick question or anything. But I had a situation in Vegas where I had hit a flop and my oppo [as we were heads up] made a large bet and flashed his cards to me. I was beat but had the draw to the FH. I folded.

fuzzbox · 07-08-2006 09:12PM

Fatboydim wrote:

Yes the maths are correct. No dispute at all.

Like I've said the problem here is not having enough info on the player as jacQues has just moved table. Probably eight times out of ten I push and twice I fold. But that's me. And it's probably why I'm a terrible cash game player.

So Fuzz... Do you still call if you know he has AQ? Not a trick question or anything. But I had a situation in Vegas where I had hit a flop and my oppo [as we were heads up] made a large bet and flashed his cards to me. I was beat but had the draw to the FH. I folded.

If he shows me AQ, then I call and hope to pair up on the turn. He gives me 4:1 on the flop, and either I have implied odds (he pays if I hit), or he folds too much (I can bluff the flush).

If we get to the turn, then I can fold there when he bets, and I have not improved.

Norwich Fan Rob · 08-08-2006 01:32AM

Im all in , vul

Hectorjelly · 08-08-2006 01:38AM

Fatboydim wrote:

How can folding be out of the question? It is an option. Not one you're going to take all the time. But it is an option. I have laid top set down in this type of situation although when it happened to me we were already at the river and no cards to come. I also showed my set and got shown the straight. If that happens they think you can see into their souls. But it depends how you feel... what reads your getting etc etc.

Folding is out of the question because the the hand posted involved a decision on the FLOP not the river. If you happen to get to the river with plenty of money behind then its a completely different scenario. The reason you cant fold is because unless the guy shows you a straight, you cant be sure he doesnt have a hand which you are crushing, like another set. And if you are behind you are only making a tiny mistake by pushing, given that you will win the hand 1/3 of the time. The penalty for folding the best hand is huge, since you have all pair or set hands drawing dead, but the penalty for getting it all in with a straight is tiny. Hence you cant fold here. By the river whoever is currently ahead wins.

Fatboydim wrote:

If you just go by the math then Hector's right. But poker is so much more than that.

LOL. This is really silly.

hotspur · 08-08-2006 02:40AM

Hard luck JacQues I think you played it about right, you went out by pushing with top set with over a 1 in 3 chance of winning even if the guy had the nuts on the flop...sooo much better than the many who went out calling it's not even funny. Hope you enjoyed the experience

Fatboydim · 08-08-2006 11:37AM

Hectorjelly wrote:

Folding is out of the question because the the hand posted involved a decision on the FLOP not the river. If you happen to get to the river with plenty of money behind then its a completely different scenario. The reason you cant fold is because unless the guy shows you a straight, you cant be sure he doesnt have a hand which you are crushing, like another set. And if you are behind you are only making a tiny mistake by pushing, given that you will win the hand 1/3 of the time. The penalty for folding the best hand is huge, since you have all pair or set hands drawing dead, but the penalty for getting it all in with a straight is tiny. Hence you cant fold here. By the river whoever is currently ahead wins.

LOL. This is really silly.

Hector I'll have to punch you in the face when I see you next. Now that's silly

Fatboydim · 08-08-2006 11:40AM

So given jacQues scenario...

If the Villain CRAI in stead of minimum raises... What's the play then? Calling or folding?

fuzzbox · 08-08-2006 12:07PM

Fatboydim wrote:

So given jacQues scenario...

If the Villain CRAI in stead of minimum raises... What's the play then? Calling or folding?

Its still a call - what has changed?

Wombatman · 08-08-2006 12:17PM

Would have played it the same.
vul.
Good to have Hectorjelly back.

Fatboydim · 08-08-2006 12:19PM

Yep you have to love Hector.:D

Bandana boy · 08-08-2006 12:21PM

hitting Top set in a raised pot while shortish stacked anybody who thinks folding here is an option is crazy