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General Irish politics discussion thread

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 41,974 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Why is Toibin comparing the number of abortions now with the number in 2018?

    Abortion was illegal in Ireland in 2018 🙄

    I'm partial to your abracadabra
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 998 ✭✭✭midlander12


    I presume he means the numbers of Irish abortions in the UK, which was always likely to have been understated by Irishwomen giving English addresses. AFAIK since legalisation the numbers here have always been 6-7000+.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 76,175 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    And by going to Amsterdam or using WomenOnWeb etc

    The figures are what everyone expected and very stable



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 998 ✭✭✭midlander12


    I'm not sure what figures were expected but I don't see that as being the main issue anyway. Ultimately these are women making up their minds not to proceed with a pregnancy, for whatever reason. If Toibin is so concerned about the figures, maybe he could have a think about why so 'many' women are making that decision rather than trying to take that right away from them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 41,974 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    The bill moves on to committee stage, but 70 TDs voted against, which is surprisingly high. It seems we're back to the previous status quo where a small but very vocal anti-choice lobby has half the Dail quivering like jelly

    I hope the electorate are taking note and will well remember the 'closet' anti-choicers at the next election

    The likes of Troy coming out with complete bullcrap about 'numbers of lives saved' etc etc are just revealing their true anti-choice colours. They voted along with the legislation in 2018 for no other reason than they didn't have the guts to oppose it

    The 10,000 or whatever figure is nonsense. It completely fails to take into account women who miscarry, who may not actually have been pregnant in the first place, who went on to abort via another medical practitioner, who ended up having a surgical abortion in the UK or elsewhere.

    Arguably the only real effect of the 3-day wait is to increase the numbers of Irish women having later, expensive and more medically difficult abortions in the UK

    I'm partial to your abracadabra
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,349 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Post edited by Rjd2 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,349 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    .dp



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 998 ✭✭✭midlander12


    They're all looking over their shoulder at II and Aontu, and it's old story of who shouts loudest gets heard first.

    Troy has already been re-elected since the revelations about his non-declaration of extensive property interests, so I suspect this won't affect him very much.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 41,974 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Whatever about II (few enough signs of them gathering any momentum though), Aontu are a complete joke and basically a family operation - although nothing like as successful as the well-known Kerry one

    I'm partial to your abracadabra
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 998 ✭✭✭midlander12


    I'd agree re both, but as I said it's who shouts loudest. You'd think Galway West would have given FG a bit of backbone, but no. FF were always in thrall to the bead-rattlers so they didn't surprise me.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,832 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    Are II and Aontu taking their votes though?

    According to the last poll from Sunday Independent 2 weeks ago, parties are as follows, with their general election 2024 numbers in brackets:

    • FF: 16 (21.9): Down 5.9
    • FG: 19 (20.8): Down 1.8
    • SF: 20 (19): Up 1
    • SD: 12 (4.8): Up 7.2
    • Lab: 3 (4.7): Down 1.7
    • Aon: 6 (3.9): Up 2.1
    • II: 9 (3.6): Up 5.4
    • GP: 3 (3): N/C
    • PBP/S: 2 (2.8): Down 0.8
    • Independents & Others: 10 (15.5): Down 5.5

    Yes, the FF/FG combined vote is nominally down by 7.7 points, and the II and Aontu vote is up by 7.5. But the Soc Dems are up by 7.2 points, SF are up by 1 and Labour/PBP are only down by 2.5 combined, so where is that vote coming from?

    I'd argue the 5.5 points down for independents and others is more likely to have gone to II & Aontu than to Soc Dems.

    It's possible that the people looking over their shoulders at II & Aontu are making the same error that the Tories and Labour have in the UK - they moved right to try and get some of the Reform vote, even though those voters were never going to vote for a mainstream party of government anyway.

    FF & FG would be better served by eyeing up the chunk of people who are embracing the Soc Dems as a better chance for actually gaining votes back I'd argue.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 76,175 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Aontu are effectively unable to transfer polling figures in to votes as their candidates are, with limited exceptions, unknowns, weirdos or both. They are sticking with a Councillor in Wexford who tried to ask someone coming to him for assistance on a date for instance.

    It's a personality cult around one person who only has so many family members to run in other seats.

    They did very poorly in the recent by-elections. They have two TDs, one of which got in on poor transfer management by FF and FG; and only one or two candidates that will be near the top end of the table on FPV beyond that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,997 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Is it simply, that when left to their own devices, the majority of both FF and FG TD's are fairly socially conservative?



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 998 ✭✭✭midlander12


    I'm not disagreeing with any of that, and I'd also agree with other posters that it's really II and not so much Aontu they're worried about. However, II emanate from the same largely rural background as the bulk of FF and FG TD's and irrespective fo whether they're taking their votes or not, they fear they will in the future.

    As regards the only actual voting recently, the FF vote fell in Galway West from 17% to 9% and the II vote increased from 9% to 21%. Apart from Noel Grealish's absence, it's hard to imagine much of that gain was at FF's expense give that Noel Thomas was ex-FF himself.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,997 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Vote tally

    Yes FF 12 FG 11

    No FF 30 FG 23

    https://www.thejournal.ie/abortion-td-votes-7074713-Jun2026/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,832 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    At a minimum they seem to be on this specific topic. Although I do wonder if some people voted against it not because of it's merits, but because it came from Sinn Féin.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    On this specific topic it would never have been up to the Dáil if FG had not pushed it through in the first place.

    I suspect it had more to do with being a SF motion, but regardless the fact that this is even a debate is because the TDs are not socially conservative.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,072 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Also, like Mercosur, if they know it will be passed, it's a free vote to keep some of the more hardline constituents on side.

    I'm glad SF had the whip in place here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,174 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    looks like SF will have the casting vote over whether there is any further liberalisation of abortion in this dail or the next…



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 41,974 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Meaningless with a general election 3.5 years away.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 41,974 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    I'm partial to your abracadabra
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 41,974 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Were you glad when they all abstained on the SD's abortion bill a couple of weeks ago?

    Yet again, SF reek of rank hypocrisy, left alliance my foot!

    I'm partial to your abracadabra
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,832 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    Oh I agree polls are meaningless, but I do think there's something to be said against the more conservative FF or FG politicians trying to tack right to try and woo the II or Aontu voters. They're not going to get them, so don't tack that way.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,650 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    The Sinn Féin TD Fionntán Ó Súilleabháin gave his friend/supporter info about his separated wife's housing needs when he was a councillor https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/the-sinn-fein-td-the-ira-bombers-brother-and-the-illegal-leak-of-a-womans-sensitive-data/a/156177721.html

    What info could he actually get ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,368 ✭✭✭Bishop of hope


    Donaldson found guilty and his wife to be complicit as well. In the realms of northern politics this has been a shocking case and the unionist leader to be found guilty of such crimes is a huge scandal for unionist politics.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,157 ✭✭✭RoTelly


    Is Irish politics a bit up its own arse?

    They way we go on about stability you'd think we never had a change of Taoiseach or a rotating Taoiseach.

    ______

    In the end they were just greedy, they all knew one another and knew what to expect more money for no return, it was a secure cash flow, but in fairness they looked for what they wanted and fair dues to them for that, and wouldn't you be doing the same!

    Just one more thing .... when did they return that car

    Yesterday



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,832 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    The UK will be onto their 7th PM in less than 10 years. Cameron resigned, Sunak lost an election. The rest of them were ousted by their party.

    In the same period we've had 5 changes of Taoiseach (with 4 people holding office) , but nobody was ousted by a heave, there weren't motions of no confidence or anything like that.

    The great offices if state in UK are PM plus Chancellor, home secretary and foreign secretary. In the past 10 years there have been:

    7 different PMs. 8 chancellors of exchequer, 10 foreign secretarys and 10 home secretarys.

    The comparable ministries here are finance, foreign affairs and justice. So we have had 6 terms for Taoiseach (4 people), 6 finance minister terns (5 people), 7 foreign affairs ministers and 5 ministers for justice (plus 2 who covered role while Helen McEntee was on mat leave).

    There's obviously a bit of churn on the Irish side too, but it's nowhere as mental as the UK has been since Brexit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,157 ✭✭✭RoTelly


    That's fine but lets not be up ourselves about it. I don't really understand it. You'd think ministers and heads of states didn't change.

    In the last 10 years they have been 6 Taoisigh (Enda Kenny left in 2017, and 2 are rotating, and another change will happen next year, that will be 7 changes to the role in a decade.)

    We don't even have a full time Defense minister, we've made up the role of a Mister of Public Expenditure / Reform just to appease the parties in the coalition, as soon as labour left the role went back into the Finance department.

    ______

    In the end they were just greedy, they all knew one another and knew what to expect more money for no return, it was a secure cash flow, but in fairness they looked for what they wanted and fair dues to them for that, and wouldn't you be doing the same!

    Just one more thing .... when did they return that car

    Yesterday



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,368 ✭✭✭Bishop of hope


    There's a big churn on here too though in fairness. A lot more dissent, the cost of living, immigration, fuel prices and taxes. The health service in a mess etc etc. And we haven't had a brexit, but people are unhappy and govts have been cobbled together with a mixture old party's holding on with the help of various loons really. I know this has happened before, but it was with single party's, not the cobbled together FF/FG +.



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