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Charts ( up to T120) Summer 2026 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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31-05-2026 12:48PM#1
Mod Note:This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing CHARTS in the shorter range timeframe up to T120 hours (next 5 days) for Summer 2026.
If your post does not specifically relate to a chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved
Thank you.
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The opening 5 days of June is currently looking unsettled with rain or showers every day with the unsettled theme set to remain well beyond this short range outlook.
Today Sunday 31 May could be the last dry day for a while so a good opportunity to get lawns/gardens cut today.
20 to 35mm rainfall can be expected over the next 5 days in the form of rain or showers.
Temperatures sliding away as the week progresses with temperatures struggling to get much above 11C in many areas by Thursday/Friday.
Not the sort of charts one wants to see for the start of summer.
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A good deal of dry weather over the weekend after the rainfall peters out later Fri although could be showery along Atlantic counties later Fri from a trough and getting fairly warm for many as the weekend progresses, looks very warm in parts on Monday and ECM showing a source of precipitation maybe from a cold front but a bit far away to be sure ( UKMO has a different timing and GFS not showing it ) but if there was, with that heat, it could lead to thunderstorms. Tues could be a cloudier day in parts and warmer further SE.
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Nice warm day tomorrow for many and looking like good long spells of sunshine. Things really pick up on Mon especially parts of Munster and should see temps getting up to 25C or so , GFS saying up to 26C, ARPEGE is much higher up to 29C but inclined to over do it a bit especially a couple of days out.
Tues looking very warm in the S, SE, E and could get tup to 27 or 28C further SE.
Weds GFS much warmer than the ECM, GFS high 20's, and ECM up to 23 or 24C or so in the Southern half of the country, will have to see how this one pans out.
Thurs nearly all the models showing very high temperatures in the high 20's at least, some showing 30- 31C, will see as the week progresses.
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Thursday 25th looks to be the hottest day with 20c 850 hPa temp covering most of the country. This means temperatures into the low 30s likely in some places with the all time highest temperature record unlikely to be broken.
ECM 12z below.
Unfortunately (or fortunately for some) it looks to be cooling down Friday onwards. Never lasts long does it.
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ECM 12Z showing a very hot day Weds getting up to 28C followed by a very warm night, could even have a so called Tropical night in the Southern half of the country with temp not dropping below 20C in a few parts perhaps. Thurs looking even hotter again from the ECM showing 21 to 22C by 07.00 , 26 to 28C by 10.00 followed by widespread 30C and even 31C. Maybe the ARPEGE wasn't that far off the mark after all. ECM I find will be more conservative than extreme with temperature predictions so the question is could this even get hotter ??
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Even if we do not get the all time high temp, the feel-like temp could be the hottest we’ve ever seen. Ecm going for 31c temperatures and 24c dew points in some areas on Thursday. Bearing in mind on July 18th 2022 when 33c was hit in the Phoenix Park dew points were in the mid teens.
Can any other posters think of such high temps being coupled with such oppressive dew points? @sryanbruen
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Very similar synoptics to the spell in 2022 where 33C was recorded at Phoenix Park, probably a touch windier though and given it's nearly a month earlier sea temps are lower which would dampen temperatures on the east coast this time around
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I'd say 35C is possible under the most extreme direct hit plume but I reckon 37C is simply not achieveable here, we would need a bigger landmass for that.
Thursday is likely to see 32C somewhere but thunderstorms could lower the overall potential.
Wednesday night will also be interesting across the south as some places may struggle to get below 25C on Wednesday night.
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Worth noting a few things,
The upper 20C line is hovering near the South for a good couple of days. Also little upgrades have meant that Thursdays heat is now back in line with the more extreme runs from 2 days ago!
For those around long enough, this is classic bay of Biscay type low! Met Eireann not saying much but for me it looks the real deal!
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