Convection /Thunderstorm discussion Spring /Summer 2026

Not at the moment

Never seen cape like this over ireland,

Early days yet but some lovely thundery charts appearing as a low meets some very warm air.

We desperately missed the trigger last month, with the Uk stealing all the storms. Hopefully we’ll get some action this time but early days yet…

The date is on the chart above and time stamp

It’s on every chart here

It’s still outside the normal reliable time frame so does depend on the direction strength and track of a low pressure system in the mid Atlantic

Potential is there but we're days away from making more accurate predictions on storms. Could be on a knife edge up to the day of it. There's July 1985 potential there. But we've seen it melt away so many times before,we have to get the right conditions in place.

Didn't think someone would already say it but next week has potentially one of the higher ceilings for anybody in the country in a bit for thunderstorms, lightning AND IF charts remain this way, we're also looking at potential for severe storms. We also have a bit of degree for low level shear but I am not gonna call on the potential for tornadic activity yet because i am highly reluctanteeven as a weather enthusiast with a country like ours when forecasts can flip on a blink. It's easier to do forecasting for America but given that this is within the range of 120 hours out, i dare say that this can hold. The thing about this period is the fuel is there but do models increase the opportunity stuff actually fires. Also, noting yeah this could be similar to July 1985 in terms of a ceiling here. I'm eager as a Dubliner here, this also has a big ceiling for us which is unusual. Let's see.

Models aren't letting down on the degree of instability. Honestly my only concern at this point is actually firing storms

That cut off low gives us some strong windfields to deal with. Anomalous setups do highly anomalous things and I'm not sure I can't recall a parameter space that would be capable of all severe hazards like wind, hail and tornadoes like this one. The best analog for a svr parameter space is probably July 1985 but in terms for tornadoes, i have no mental analogs at all. For the record to back up my thoughts about tornadoes here, here's a sounding from Cavan.

Strong low level curvature in the hodographs, large amounts of instability combined with strong deep layer shear of 40-50 kts. There will be a strong 700 mb shortwave filling in with the potential for convection. Watch this setup closely, it's not your average plume setup because we have shear at the low levels and upper levels here.

Yeah, that is the thing. But models haven't let up on this so if shifts do occur, i hope it's very little. Models have near 4k SBCAPE in the east which is just absurd. This is a bit of a odd occasion where bothwareas aren't left out

The UK gets their share of the plume and we do too. Could be a very active day. I'm looking forward to how the news is going to present this one, maybe the odd rumble or two LOL.

That's the one! The stuff over Ulster looks decent on that chart but from memory it was just our usual single cell stuff, the one in the Irish Sea and the storms over the UK were proper MCS storms, there was a tornado in Leicester from what I remember

That's the hugest cape value I have seen modelled for Ireland on the Ecmwf 6000+ parameters look very good for severe weather and Thunderstorms later Thursday especially across the west, northwest and north

Any chance of sparks in the West during the week

Thanks for that Meteorite58 great detail as usual

A couple of potent little cells have just popped up in east Laois and are heading over the border to Kildare now, in the vicinity of Athy. Heading north east

met eireann meteorologist was just i the newsmmentioning Thursday for the highest thunderstorm risk in the NW but charts suggest anywhere will really have a opportunity iif cells can form amidst the elevated plume with potential large hail risk.

commonly called dust devil , saw one in 1995 during the blistering summer.

They usually form on heated flat ground during high temperature periods.

They can be seen when dust and the likes get drawn up into air. They form from the ground upwards unlike tornadoes.