Football ranking table

Updated ranking table after last weekend's round of games:

Another avalanche of games this weekend, but best not to complain, it will all be over way too quickly

• Cork's results generally fall within the expected, whereas Donegal's form fluctuates from +15 to -15 points of where they should be over the last 5 games.
• A first-ever championship meeting of Roscommon and Monaghan; if Roscommon rediscover their Connaght championship form, they should make their rating point superiority count
• Kildare's recent form reads poorly (2 wins from last 10 outings, and those against Laois and Offaly); Kerry's doesn't look spectacular either - they have underperformed by between 6 and 17 points in 4 of their last 5 games
• Derry vs Meath looks like it is going to be extremely tight, with Derry on a slightly better run of form
• Offaly look like the form team and should get over the line vs Wexford
• Both Antrim and Wicklow are coming off 2 good results, and their first ever championship meeting should be a tight affair
• Laois's form looks slightly more consistent, but they are going to have to up it a level to overcome Down
• Fermanagh seem to have found their mojo since leaving Ulster behind them, and should continue their winning ways vs Sligo
• Louth rectified the Leinster SFC loss to Dublin with a good win in the "replay", but Armagh have been operating at a higher level - incidentally, this will be the first ever championship of these neighbours!
• Westmeath are on a great run - 5 wins on the trot - but face a serious test in the West, against a team rated slightly higher than them
• Tyrone seem to be on an up, with their performances improving game on game; Mayo, on the other hand, try to redefine the word "inconsistency" - the model can't call it
• With only 2 wins from their previous 12 games (vs Offaly and vs Kildare), it is hard to believe that Cavan are only 4 rating points behind Dublin. But then again, Dublin have only 4 wins from their last 12, and mixed in some heavy defeats. Would a Cavan win be such a huge shock?

Huge changes at the top!

• Due to a great win over Donegal, combined with Armagh's loss to Louth, Cork take number 1 spot for the first time since August 2012!
• Monaghan gathered the most rating points (6.7) of the weekend following a big win over a fancied Roscommon side
• Cork, Louth, Dublin and Down all increased their worth by more than 4 rating points
• Derry's drop to 15th leaves them at their lowest since May 2021

I was thinking that it couldn't get any more exciting than this weekend's football…….and then I saw the draws for next weekend 🤩

Six big games this weekend, with 6 teams to drop out of the 2 championships.

• Armagh's form has been more consistent than Kerry's over the last 6 games, but Kerry with home advantage are slightly favoured
• There is very little to separate Mayo and Meath - similar rating points, similar run (lost 2 of last 3 games), and occasional very poor results (vs Roscommon, vs Westmeath). Their last championship meeting was 2019, and most recent league meeting 2021, so little recent form to go on. Home advantage swings it for the model
• Both Down and Fermanagh have turned their seasons around, and it is hard to judge which has been the most impressive. Down struggled past Fermanagh in both this year's league and last year's championship - this might be tighter than people think
• Offaly are on a nice run of form, and seem to hold a strong advantage over Wicklow in their recent meetings
• Donegal seem to reserve their best performances for the "best" opposition - will they consider Dublin to be in this category? If so, they should win easily
• Monaghan seem to be turning their season around at just the right time. Home advantage should be enough in their 2nd ever championship meeting

tl;dr