2026 Hurricane Season

star gazer · 18-05-2026 08:02PM #1

The new Hurricane season kicks off on the first of June. This year the Atlantic Hurricane Main Development Region is expected to be undermined by the Super El Nino that's forecast to develop this year beginning around July or even sooner. It's because it brings that area more wind shear and sinking, dry air. While Atlantic hurricanes will likely be reduced in number, it's still possible extra ocean heat helps tropical storms develop north of the Caribbean and in the area around Florida through Western Cuba to Yucatan, Mexico. A few tropical storms might get through in June before the full el nino impacts. The general building up of ocean heat content over time now means more fuel for more and stronger Hurricanes.

Hurricane preparations

NHC tropical weather outlook shows no systems forecast for the coming week.

There's potential for a lot more of the Weather extremes that don't make the headlines with the Super El Nino this year causing some areas to get much drier and others much wetter. There's also the chance of increased high tide flooding for the US on both sides because of it.

Eastern Pacific Hurricanes conversely get a boost from it the Pacific heat discharge. Warmer waters increase the chances of some systems making landfall in Mexico and more coherent remnants making it through to Southern California. Likewise potentially Hawaii.

Tropical Tidbits storm information for when they start. It has global storms info.

star gazer · 23-05-2026 05:18PM

Storm Names for 2026:
Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred.

NOAA's National Weather Service is forecasting a likely (55%) below average Atlantic hurricane season this year with another 35% chance of being around normal and only 10% chance of higher than normal season. That translates to 8-14 named storms, 3-6 Hurricances and 1-3 major hurricanes.

"The Atlantic season is expected to be below-normal due to competing factors. El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season, while ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely weaker than average. El Niño conditions tend to support less tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year."

NOAA

The Eastern Pacific with all the el nino heat in the ocean is expected to be an above average season and the same for the Central Pacific. NOAA Pacific

star gazer · 11-06-2026 05:28PM

A small chance (10%) of a tropical storm formation in the South Western Gulf of Mexico in the coming days. The remnant of Pacific Tropical Storm Cristina might merge with a moist Low over the Gulf and produce the first storm on the Atlantic side. As the name suggests there have already three tropical storms on the Eastern Pacific side.

star gazer · 15-06-2026 08:23PM

A bigger chance (50%) that the same disturbance will move back over water into the North Western Gulf in the coming days. It's been bringing a lot of rain with it.

star gazer · 16-06-2026 07:35PM

NHC have started providing advisories for potential tropical cyclone One, formation chance up to 70%. Significant rainfall:

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around
12 inches through Thursday from the Mid to Upper Texas Coast through
much of Louisiana, central and southern portions of Mississippi and
Alabama, and the far western portion of the Florida Panhandle. This
could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding.

star gazer · 17-06-2026 09:45PM

Tropical Storm Arthur forms briefly off the coast of Texas for the next few hours.

star gazer · 18-06-2026 07:42PM

Having been fed by a topical storm remnant from the Pacific, the now remnants of TS Arthur could emerge into the Atlantic with a marginal (10%) chance of forming a subtropical/tropical system. It's continuing to drench parts of the Southeastern United States. This may well be the beginning of the extra rainfall that comes to the Southern US with an el nino. With extra heat comes extra moisture in these systems.

2026 Hurricane Season

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