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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2026 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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31-05-2026 12:29PM#1
Mod Note:This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward for Summer 2026.
If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved
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Summer begins tomorrow on Bank Holiday Monday and the start of June, opening 7 to 10 day period is looking poor with plenty of rain and showers. Low pressure will dominate our weather over the coming week and possibly second week of June.
Next weekend looks cool and wet with the green washing machine spinning over us.
This setup carries on to the following weekend
By mid June there are distant signs that our weather may begin to settle down again with high pressure but this is a long way off and therefore unreliable.
GFS ensembles reflects this with a fairly wet and often cool opening 10 days of the month with hints towards a drying and warming trend as we push towards the middle of June.
Other models are similar showing an unsettled opening 2 weeks to June, ECM remains unsettled from start to finish with no real hints towards high pressure in this mornings model.
GEM also showing Atlantic domination from start to finish with the azores high staying to our south.
Rainfall amounts look highish towards the west and around average in eastern areas but this changes from run to run.
Hopefully in about a weeks time we will start to see a more definite trend of an improvement towards mid month.
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hopefully this isn't like cold and snow in winter where the trend towards high pressure constantly gets pushed back. It's starting to look like much of this June is going to be autumnal. Confidence in high pressure is rather low at the moment.
looks thoroughly wet till the 12th. The drying trend is way off in FI and there is absolutely no guarantee it will verify. Maybe by the weekend we will see something more positive in the models for the 3th week of June. The next 2 weeks is locked in unsettled and rather cool, a horrible start to summer 2026.
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No end in sight to the Atlantic onslaught on this afternoons models, don't know which is worse the ECM or the GFS but it's a fairly close match.
Rainfall totals are also creeping up since I opened this thread just 2 days ago.
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Definitely a warming trend there on the GEFS 06z from the second weekend of June (13th/14th) with somewhat above average 850hPa temps signalled there through the rest of the period, not very warm or no heatwave signalled though there is a fair bit of scatter that goes significantly above the ensemble mean. The GFS 06Z OP run was very strange showing a lot of high pressure close by but always remaining to the west and northwest bringing down a northeasterly flow which would be cloudy at times, particularly in the east. Quirky setup for June, think we should leave that as a one off weird run than taking too much from it.
Still some precipitation spikes showing but less so than what the next week will bring which will be plenty of showers and rain at times again with quite cool weather for the time of year.
What I believe will happen is that at first there will be an increase in temperatures due to more of a tropical maritime sourced flow from the mid-Atlantic rather than the westerlies in the next week. This will give warmer conditions aloft but at the surface will remain damp especially to exposed NW and western areas (sorry squarecircles) before hopefully a stronger push of high pressure in the latter part of the third week into the fourth week at a similar time to May.
Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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An Ecmwf run from the top drawer this evening
Next Saturday
Going strong in FI too
To be taken with a pinch of salt but good agreement for a ridge of high pressure next weekend.
The AI models are back near the top of the verification stats, here’s there latest runs for next Sunday
We seem to be trending in the right direction, too early to tell will it be temporary or will it be a June of two halves 🌧️ ☀️
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That's a solid set of ensembles as well from both the GFS and ECM. Huge amounts of scatter but most are signalling a significant warming this afternoon and evening. Love how the ECM and GFS OP runs go polar opposites in FI.
Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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The ECM operational this evening is as good as it gets for summer weather from Friday onward, alas water to go under the bridge yet. GFS not too bad either but a bit cooler in the east just due to the orientation of the high and it breaks down fairly quickly too.
At least there is hope 😎
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alot of uncertainty in the models following this weekends fine spell.
We can see from the ensemble some very wet weather to come before the weekend fine spell. The weekend fine spell clearly visible with very few rainfall spikes and then an unsettled trend from next Tuesday but there is alot of scatter there for next week but there is a bit of hope that things could settle down again into the final week of June but with so much scatter it's impossible to tell at this stage how the end of the month will pan out.
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yep this weekends 'fine spell' got heavily downgraded over the past 24 hours to the point where it's barely noticeable and next week looks rubbish, let's see if the final week of June can recover this trainwreck.
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ECM out in FI from next weekend looking very warm to hot for about a week or so as heights build and HP producing settled weather but GFS no where like it over Ireland but very warm /hot over large parts of Europe. UKMO only out to +168 but has the makings of a plume all right moving up into the UK. ACCESS G no good for Ireland but the GEM looks better. Looks like all the models directing warmer weather up from the South but will have to see if aiming for us like best case scenario from the ECM but by no means are we anywhere near cross model consensus yet but promising perhaps.
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ECM still holding the very warm /hot spell from about Mon 22, currently showing it to get up into the high 20's in places , AIFS showing up to 30C, before that in the high teens touching 20C, not so from the GFS though never letting it get too warm over Ireland but a big hot plume into Europe, UKMO showing out to 168hrs high temps making into the UK. Certainly looking a lot more summery. Currently the ECM showing a lot less rainfall from next weekend. All in FI so will have to see how it pans out.
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