Wide gap in online valuation vs dealer asking

Trojan · 10-06-2026 01:05PM #1

I've noticed big discrepancies in how cars are valued depending on where you look.

Through my work, I have direct access to a One Auto API key, so I built some software to help me with my car search (ES300h or Camry).

Carzone gets its valuations from Cartell - and you’d assume the numbers would match, but they rarely do. Throw Brego valuation (again via API) into the mix, and you get a completely different set of figures again.

Here is the data on two very similar 2022 Toyota Camry Platinums I was looking at recently:

Car A: 2022 Camry (55k km)

Franchise Main Dealer Asking Price: €39,950 (sitting for ~600 days on forecourt).
History: very clean, single owner, all main dealer stamps, but condition "good" due to noticeable wear
Valuations
- Cartell (OneAutoAPI): Retail €33,450 · Trade €25,100
- Brego (OneAutoAPI): Retail low/avg/high €30,437 / €31,855 / €33,336
- Carzone (website, "data from Cartell"): Retail: Excellent €33,900 · Good €29,850 · Fair €25,750 Trade-in: €25,450/€21,350/€17,300
- My offer: I didn't bother - asking too high and I didn't like the wear (spoke to an upholsterer who said it'd be nearly impossible to fix permanently)

Car B: 2022 Camry (60k km)

Off-brand Main Dealer Asking Price: €36,950 dropped to €35,950 due to a "summer sale"
History: Cleanish, but reported as 4 owners - dealer claims garage moves are 3 of those.
Valuations
- Cartell (Full History Check): €30,850 (if Excellent)
- Cartell (OneAutoAPI): Retail €32,400 · Trade €24,300
- Brego (OneAutoAPI): Retail low/avg/high €28,698 / €30,104 / €31,563 · Trade €24,393/€25,588/€26,828
- Carzone (website, "data from Cartell"): Retail: Excellent €32,700 · Good €28,800 · Fair €24,850 · Trade €24,550 pulled by dealer live in front of me - he only mentioned the "Excellent" valuation, despite the car being "Good" at best.
- My offer: €30,000 with €10k down immediately - soundly rejected
- Counter offer: €500 off the asking to make it €35,450 - still 3k above the Carzone "Excellent" valuation and over 6k above the "Good" valuation.

One issue is the paid history check probably brought Car B's value down to €30,850 because it factored in the 4 previous owners. I suspect Carzone kept it at €32,700 because it likely only looks at age and mileage.

Cartell API, the paid Cartell History Check, and Carzone should be same data via three different channels but disagree by up to €1,850 on the same car. And then the dealers are asking

But still, that's a huge difference between asking and these valuations. How much weight do you (or the dealers) actually put on the back-end API valuations and what Carzone spits out?

Trojan · 10-06-2026 03:52PM

Some more thoughts on pricing: for the active set of available cars at any given moment, a correctly-priced car gets listed, sells in 3 days, and exits the pool.

An overpriced car sits - so if we take a snapshot of "what's for sale right now" we disproportionate sample the cars nobody is buying. The good deals are nearly invisible because they exist in the pool for only a few days. The bad deals accumulate.

The consequence is that the active asking median sits high relative to what cars actually change hands at.

That means negotiation is not the lever, readiness is the lever.

User1998 · 10-06-2026 04:24PM

There are no accurate car valuation tools in Ireland. And your offer of €30k is absolutely ridiculous.

Thesmallfarmer · 10-06-2026 06:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124540275#Comment_124540275

What is so ridiculous about a fair offer for a 4 year old car?

I would let them keep it

The country is full of cars and with 30k to spend ,I would be definitely be buying a new EV with the new grant.

Trojan · 10-06-2026 07:50PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124540275#Comment_124540275

On what basis do you say that?

Because I have 13 valuations from 3rd parties saying otherwise.

Plus ~3 weeks of market data I've collected myself, and looking at a 2022 that's been sitting on a forecourt overpriced and devaluing for the best part of 2 years.

User1998 · 10-06-2026 08:10PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124540696#Comment_124540696

Offering €7k under asking price for a very in demand car is ridiculous

User1998 · 10-06-2026 08:12PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124540833#Comment_124540833

There are absolutely no Camrys for sale for €30k with that mileage. Therefore a ridiculous offer

Trojan · 10-06-2026 08:17PM

There's a few different answers to that. For one, you say there's no Camrys "for sale" for that. That's not true. There's no Camrys with a dealer ASKING price of that amount. Asking price is not equal to sale price.

If it's very in-demand, why is there a franchise main dealer with one on the forecourt for 2 years - and it's good spec - touchscreen, 360 camera etc.

And you're looking at survivor bias if you're looking at the median market price.

I'll wall-of-text in a minute with some actual data but I don't want to spam this post.

Trojan · 10-06-2026 08:27PM

Wall of text incoming. This is data from my custom software which scores available cars on a few different things (spec, year, mileage, history, import and proximity to me has a minor bump).

I've 2 lists - keeper (hold for 5-6 years) and bridge (optional car to hold for 18-24 months while I source a keeper).
I'm removing the top cars from each list because I don't want to share.

I just added some Japanese imports to the db for comparison.

—

Lexus shortlist - top bridges & keepers (10 Jun 2026 evening · post-sweep refresh, rev 2: JDM comparator added)

What changed since the morning board: the full bridge-band ES market + NX search results were ingested (19 new DB rows, ids 101-119) and the whole watch was rescored via the production pipeline. Small score drifts vs the morning board (e.g. Lexus Cork 59→56) are the provisional value baseline moving: 17 cheap bridge ES entered the active pool and pulled the asking-median down. Provisional ≠ sale data, as always.

Market read (production stats, 90-day window): median 3.0 days to clear (n=20, 17 fast / 0 slow, zero price cuts observed) - plus the Castle Motors 2023 ES (€43,900, 59,900 km, cheapest sub-60k-km 2023) taking a DEPOSIT = 5th keeper-band clearing data point.

Keepers (current-gen ES/NX) - rescored

[Car 1] - IN BUDGET · Greenlight-verified (Irish, 1 owner) · still THE front-runner..
NEW · [Car 2] [adj 57] - the only OTHER in-budget current-gen ES, €6k under Car 1.
Franchise, 12-mo warranty. Caveats: trim is "LUX SPEC" , origin unverified, Xk km is above the <~40k keeper preference. Worth one call: reg + trim + origin.
Lexus Cork ES 2025 Dynamic - 26,442 km, €54,900 - [adj 56] - ~€4k over.
Donegal ES 2025 Dynamic - 6,730 km, €58,495 - [adj 53] - ~€7.5k over.
Lexus Select NX 2023 Executives - 31-38k km, €52.4-54k - [adj 47-53] - all over ceiling; the cheapest (€52,450/31k) is the best of them.

Off the board: Castle Motors 2023 (deposit taken); Colm Quinn 2025 (sold, both DB rows now removed); DC Motor 2025 "PREMIUM" [adj 44] - now carries a UK-import flag in the DB and the dealer rates 2/5; the "Premium" is the dealer's title, unverified.
Watch out: the Waterford 2023 ES (€43,950, 54,414 km, adj 48) is flagged UK import in the DB - looks in-budget but eats the −6 dock and a UK 'Premium/spec' rarely matches Irish grades.
Camry fallback: **Annesley 2023 Platinum, 34,000 km, €41,950 [adj 71]still tops the entire watch; a **2022 Platinum, 44,000 km, €37,945 (Dublin) ties it at [adj 71] for €4k less - the two de-risked options
if the ES route stalls.

COMPARATOR (unscored - not a live Irish listing): JDM self-import ES 300h 2022 Version L, grade 4.5+, ≤40k km - ~€40,500 landed (base 10% duty; best €37.5k / worst €43k). Per the two 10 Jun import reports. Why it matters: Version L ≈ the Irish ES Premium that the 8 Jun analysis proved doesn't exist here ≤€45k (ventilated seats,
semi-aniline, premium audio). ~~OMSP/VRT ambiguity~~ on a JDM-only trim is the #1 risk (report 2) - plan with a 10–15% buffer, i.e. treat it as **€44–47k effective** until a real car passes the gates (clean docs / Irish comparable / post-tax margin / low OMSP ambiguity); Lexus Relax warranty + hybrid-battery cover appears to accept imports once Irish-serviced (single-sourced - confirm with Lexus Ireland before bidding). DECISION RULE: the import wins only if a graded 4.5+ Version L is live when finance lands AND the spec gap (not cash) is the reason. Weekly Goo-net sweep now in the daily email.

Bridges (curated - only if the keeper route falls through)

GS 300h (private) - 20xx - unchanged cash-light lead: comfort saloon, full Lexus history, Irish, low km.
NEW · 2021 ES "Luxury" -xx km, €38,950 - [adj 52, top bridge score] - LOWEST-km bridge in the whole set,
franchise + 12-mo warranty, comfort trim (title-claimed). Two cautions: (a) trim/origin unverified - same call as their 2023; (b) keeper-creep risk: this is near-keeper money for old (pre-touchscreen) tech - fine as a deliberate 2-yr bridge with a clean exit, a trap if it quietly becomes the keeper.
ES 300h - 20xx - [adj 41] - comfort + CarPlay + Dublin; the import question is STILL the gate (Irish → strong
value; UK → walk).
Lexus Blackrock NX 300h Executive AWD - 2019, 87,943 km, €34,950 - [adj 37] - certainty co-lead (sold new + serviced by Blackrock, AWD). NOTE: Blackrock now has a SECOND NX (2020 Executive, 115,000 km, €36,450 - worse km/€).
NEW · Lexus Cork NX 300h Dynamic FWD - 2020, 88,901 km, €35,900 - [adj 32] - the verify-list #3 car, now tracked; newer than Blackrock, likely CarPlay, but FWD and €950 more.
Denis Mahony Lexus M50 North ES 2022 Dynamic - 102,555 km, €37,950 - [adj 50] - touchscreen-gen at bridge money + Lexus franchise + Greenlight, but 102k km and near-keeper price (same keeper-creep
caution as the Woodland 2021).
Cash tier (GS, high-km, soft exits): dealer 2015 157k €18,999 · private 2017 136k €21,500 · privat) 2013 Luxury 137k €23,000 · Dealer 2017 131k €24,500 (UK import).
Deep bench (new this sweep, 100k+ km comfort ES, €26.5-36.5k): David Tobin 2019 Luxury 128k €29,950 · Leinster 2020 Executive 150k €28,950 (sunroof) · Sarsfield 2020 145k €28,950 (sunroof) · Autocity 2021 Dynamic 103k €36,450 · N4 2020 Executive 151k €32,750 · private Kildare 2021 91k €33,995 (lowest-km private) · private Dublin 2019 110k
€26,500. F Sports (Evra, Auto Class, N4, Lexus Galway 2022) stay down-ranked - firm ride fails the comfort bar.

Posture (unchanged): cars clear in days (median 3.0, zero cuts), but inflow is continuous - 19 new candidates entered the watch TODAY.

Scores = monitor adjusted (merit − marque/JDM/UK/F-Sport docks ± budget drift vs €51k). Curated from the live market + monitor DB (73 deduped active cars). Strategy + decision log: docs/analysis/car-strategy.md.

User1998 · 10-06-2026 09:35PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124540888#Comment_124540888

For popular cars like the Camry, advertised price does equal selling price. Dealers generally don't haggle on their prices, as evident by their response to your lowball offer. If you think you can just walk into a dealer and purchase a car for thousands below their asking price you are clearly mistaken.

I'd imagine its sat around for so long because the main dealer is competing against cheap Japanese imports. Clearly isn't worth €30k tho. An Irish car from a main dealer will always be worth more than a Jap import from an independent dealer

goochy · 10-06-2026 11:19PM

Most sensible dealers price cars at sensible prices ro sell easily . Cars are priced to sell..you can only offer 7 k under asking. Price if a car is over priced / in stock a long time

Buddy Bubs · 11-06-2026 07:36AM

A bit of software doesnt mean you can get thousands off asking price of a car. The seller will not care what code is behind your valuation.

The 2 cars you mentioned are in sligo is that correct?

I can see multiple other 2022 Camry for sale around the country for much closer to 30k

User1998 · 11-06-2026 09:16AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124540696#Comment_124540696

Also, I hate this idea of a car being overpriced because it is a certain number of years old.

This blanket statement idea of "Its a 4 year old car, no way its worth €35k" without taking any of the facts into consideration. It just shows your lack of interest in cars that are more than just point A to B vehicles. Not everyone wants a brand new basic EV with 200km Winter range and absolutely no comfort features. Some people rather buy a 4 year old car that was once €100,000

Would you still be complaining if the 4 year old car was a Porsche, Range Rover, Mercedes etc for €35k? Would it still be overpriced then?

Buffman · 11-06-2026 09:52AM

@Trojan They're not really 'discrepancies', it's pretty much just the 'normal' enough pricing structure of the current market here.

Generally speaking, main dealers=highest asking prices, independent dealers=middle ground, private sales=cheapest asking prices.

So if you're pretty much offering the main dealer an independent dealer type offer, it's highly unlikely to succeed as you've found out. The market will dictate if they sell or not.

With the exception of back in the recession and with cheap trade-ins which they might just want rid off, in my experience with main dealers the price is the price, take it or leave it, might offer you a few perks or something. You did well to even get the extra €500 off IMO, and best of luck to the crowd with that other one asking almost €40K.

Also, whatever about the circumstances, but being owner #5 on a 22 DL reg one is not something to aspire to IMO, and with the other one, personally I wouldn't be in any rush to consider any sort of EV, HEV, PHEV that's been sitting around for sale for years, never mind one with a highly optimistic asking price.

As mentioned, there appears to be better value out there. Be prepared to travel to get a good deal, most dealers will offer nationwide delivery, limiting yourself to the Sligo area greatly reduces your options.

Schorpio · 11-06-2026 10:12AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124541062#Comment_124541062

The notion that the advertised price equals the sales price is nonsense. You're almost certainly not getting 7 grand off of the asking price but dealers will 100% haggle.

If a dealer doesn't haggle on price, but has a very "popular" car sitting on the forecourt for nearly 2 years, I'd suggest that the dealer might want to start.

Yeah Right · 11-06-2026 11:51AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058439618/wide-gap-in-online-valuation-vs-dealer-asking

What's the OMSP on the VRT website when you put the details in, out of interest?

goochy · 11-06-2026 01:03PM

It's like this ..most dealers will only discount a car if it's been in stock a while or if they have priced it a bit steep meaning they priced it to allow for a bit of a haggle . If they price a car at say 20k and they know cars are selling at that price easily why would they sell at 19k just because someone would prefer to pay that ?

It reminds me if a friend who bought a car at a car supermarket , admitted he got it at a great price but couldn't understand why dealer wouldn't throw in stuff for free also - no understanding that they price cars cheaply to sell quickly and it's no frills

User1998 · 11-06-2026 01:28PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124542179#Comment_124542179

Revenues OMSP is usually highly inaccurate. Pretty much all the cars I import have a Revenue OMSP of less than half the cars actual value

Schorpio · 11-06-2026 03:09PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124542464#Comment_124542464

Nobody is suggesting that a dealer will sell a car at a loss. But (in almost all cases) a dealer will add a bit of margin to the sticker price to allow for negotiation.