Convection /Thunderstorm discussion Spring /Summer 2026

Thunderstorm potential increases more tomorrow Monday, again more so on Tuesday perhaps and less so on Weds but still a low chance in N, NE. Isolated in nature but as the Island becomes increasingly under the upper trough and associated cold pool ( very cold for time of year ) then the chance of instability increases lower down with the passage of decaying occluded fronts, troughs and showers or more prolonged rain coming in off the Atlantic in a SW, increasingly W'ly and bit of NW airflow. Rainfall accumulations high in Northern counties over the coming days especially under convective activity. Highest chance of TS in the afternoons /early evening during the modest diurnal heating. A bit of interest anyway in the otherwise dreary weather. will be interesting to see the fine tuning over the coming days. N and NE does the best in this kind of setup along with the midlands, N midlands, E and SE perhaps on Tues.

Ah the text I just copied and pasted from a post I did on Facebook, just came out that way, not intentional 😀

Thanks Robwindstrom, find it very interesting and always trying to improve my knowledge and understanding of the dynamic of convection and thunderstorm development and enjoy learning from and sharing an interest with others.

Maybe along the NW, N coasts later tonight Storm 10 / into the early morning ( slight chance ) from that area of convection ( I think it is the showery trough ) that might make it into Northern counties and parts of the W, low chance along the W coast overnight but never know , Northern counties best chance tomorrow and some isolated storms slight chance in parts of the country, more from the midlands to the E, N to NE. Plenty of showers countrywide, some heavy falls locally, chance of hail. Not massive MUCAPE from the charts this evening, will see later if any improvement.

Some storms and heavy rain over Northern counties today.