Aer Lingus Fleet/ Routes Discussion Pt 2 (ALL possible routes included)

-DEG due back this evening as EIN991 at 21:33.

Went tech for 2 hours in Man.

down as EI-DVH at the moment

That'll only be known a day or two before the flight.

Thanks.

Anyone know where the A330 getting moved off IAD 118/119 is being reassigned to?

Sounds like a reduction in cork base size to move to DUB base to increase profit margin

they have a surplus of aircraft in the winter anyway , if Cork is reduced for the winter it won’t be to increase in Dublin.

And a warning from Willie Walsh in today's Irish Independent:

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish-business/aer-lingus-not-going-to-have-a-future-if-it-doesnt-slash-costs-and-boost-margins-warns-willie-walsh/a/156280401.html

It certainly feels like IAG is turning the screws on Aer Lingus now.

My concern is that Aer Lingus has been backed into a corner with nothing else left to give. The product is lagging, the fleet is aging, staff relations are in the pits, management appear rudderless and the early sign of 'transformation' is to shrink, cut and slash yet again which will simply hand marketshare to Ryanair and European legacy rivals while the transatlantic business continues to come under pressure.

Feels like the stage is being set for a major showdown with unions but the question is, what happens if Aer Lingus still can't consistentinly maintain or even meet the high margin target IAG sets after all the cuts? Could IAG consider offloading the business?

IAG must shoulder some of the blame of Aer Lingus' current predicament too. The laser focus on transatlantic flying pushed by the group, particularly to secondary cities to justify A321LR/XLR investment left other areas of the business to flounder in my opinion.

It's such a terrible way to manage a business. The parent company makes demands of the companies in the group and seems to just expect them to meet the demands like Subjects to the Crown.

They set a target and expect all airlines under their group to meet it, without any regard for the individual airline itself. As mentioned already, no diversification from dependency on US routes and now the big American carriers are putting the squeeze on them. No short-haul growth, that's left to ryanair. They are a legacy carrier with legacy costs, operating from a small island. The parent group doesn't seem to see itself as the driver or the innovator or doesn't work with the companies to create something, just set targets and expect results. BA and Iberia have access to massive population centres with the ability to leverage huge premium traffic. That is just not a reality for Ireland. Vueling made a 7% profit last year €234 million off €3.2b turnover. Aer Lingus made €282m from €2.5bn turnover, 11%.

So shortest A330 TATL route is BOS? Longest is LAX? Whats a 10% saving A339 vs A333 on each route in tonnes?

You also have to factor in other costs on overall savings. For example, pre COVID, operating an A330 CEO was generally cheaper than a 787 because even though the 787 burned considerably less fuel, the acquisition/leasing cost greatly exceeded the cost of the excess fuel burn due to cheap fuel being available at the time. With astronomical fuel costs currently, the opposite is generally true....depending on the fuel hedging situation of the specific carrier.

To complicate things further, you need to factor in the interest rates for borrowing for each carrier. EG say Norse will be paying more than say Aer Lingus because Norse finances are less secure.

The A330 problem

I think this is one of the biggest structural issues.

The A330-2/300 fleet is reliable but increasingly expensive relative to newer aircraft.

An Airbus A330-900neo would offer:

• lower fuel burn,
• lower maintenance costs,
• better cargo economics,
• longer economic life.

The catch, as is pointed out, is that IAG generally allocates aircraft where returns justify the investment.

If management are effectively being told:

Hit 12% returns and then we'll discuss fleet renewal while simultaneously competing with older aircraft, that's a difficult circle to square.