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Beef price tracker 2

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,156 ✭✭✭morphy87


    I remember reading Paul Nolan of Dawn meats about 4 or 5 weeks ago and he was fairly confident that the price would stabilise and hold, I know that’s only his opinion but the trade has completely collapsed, I was speaking to a man this evening and he has a shed of bulls and he can’t move them, it will be the breaking of him he said. I also heard that they are aiming for €5.50 base by the end of Autumn



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,943 ✭✭✭Dunedin


    nobody knows or can predict what the price will be in the autumn. The only tuppence from my book is that if they do go to €5.50 and stay at that for a while, it will genuinely force a lot of farmers out of business.

    Unless it’s the cartels objective to actually do this, and clear the pathway for them to import even cheaper beef.

    Who knows…..?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,156 ✭✭✭morphy87


    That’s true,€5.50 will finish it for alot of people that were thinking of pulling the plug anyway



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 22,614 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Its easy enough to fall out with a procurement manager. I have no issue with anyone using an agent. I use one myself for exactly that reason. If I fall out with an agent I can move to another one. There is a limited number of processors

    Its crazy the amount of ordinary lads finishing cattle out of the shed. I only finish cattle capable of being hung by the end of January and then its only a pen at the most After that if a processor wants me to winter finish he will have to give me a contract. They will not do that so I am f@@ked if I am accepting the risks involved.

    What type of Bulls U 16 months or ones heading for 24 months. Was he constantly selling them to different processors previous years. Locally any lads supplying regularly to a local factory is getting them away. Seems to be no issue with Continental type bulls again locally.

    Dropped a few cattle poff this morning. Lairage was fairly empty at 9 am mostly cows in it. 50 cattle at the most left to slaughter. 2 trucks arrived after that while I was washing the box. I doubt if they were full. I was a while washing it as it was filthy. Surprised as it was a Tuesday after a bank holiday weekend. Kill dropped to 30250 last week. Last BH week at the start of May they held the kill at 31k+

    @kk.man the only market returning 8 euro plus Europe that imports beef is Italy. Most of our beef would not be to there specification. The requirements is for U24 months intensively fed lean beef. They do not like marbling in there meat. As well I think they want a white fat finish not the yellow we get off grass. Last year they were 70c to a euro behind us. Grand if we can crack it but it would take a change of product

    Post edited by Bass Reeves on

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,409 ✭✭✭limo_100


    have culls cows to sell I suppose I am aswell to just sell them and move on at this point Notting to be gained holding them on. They are starting to flesh up well now



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,007 ✭✭✭kk.man


    If they are factory fit i would bring them to the factory not the mart. In a downward pressure like we are experiencing the factory agent can make a quick buck easier.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,007 ✭✭✭kk.man


    What you say is true to a certain extent about the Italian job,but there is no country in Europe experiencing downward pressure like us atm. We are the kicking boys of Europe.

    Thats 💯 about the numbers slaughtering in sheds. The amount of ppl who did it in huge numbers without contracts is beyond belief.

    There won't be an animal winter finished in this country again (outside a contract) for all the tea in China.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,409 ✭✭✭limo_100


    they wouldn’t be fully there one of them could be but the others are just starting to do now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 392 ✭✭Hershall


    The majority of lads around here finish out of the shed winter and summer. They buy forward cattle graze for a while then into the shed to finish. Chatting some of them they sick with the price of beef but continue to buy and feed. Its a vicous circle really.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 22,614 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    This was part of yesterday's editorial in the FI. I just pasted the lot of it

    Irish beef is "under pressure” in the UK due to imports from countries such as Australia and New Zealand, coupled with higher consumer prices and reduced retail promotions and shelf space, Bord Bia has said.

    Bord Bia's Beef and Livestock Sector Manager Joe Burke said retail sales of beef "have been difficult”, with consumer behaviour increasingly driven by switching and value-seeking.

    He said cost remains "very much top of mind” for shoppers, a trend highlighted in Bord Bia's latest survey of approximately 1,500 beef shoppers across seven key markets. The study, undertaken earlier this year, found that for shoppers who considered buying beef but ultimately chose not to, price was the main barrier.

    Mr Burke said this was mirrored in the UK, where price inflation across the food category is "the key worry” for shoppers. He said a colleague in the UK told him recently that "shelf space being dedicated to beef is under pressure”.

    "The lack of price promotions that would normally be driving the category somewhat means retailers are giving it somewhat less shelf space, as opposed to some cheaper proteins, pork and chicken, which are relatively price competitive.”

    He said Irish beef exports to the UK are down 10pc so far this year, or around 6,000 tonnes, a decline that has "coincided with a bit more emphasis on EU markets to compensate for that”.

    Kantar data show that in the 12 weeks to April 19, retail beef sales volumes fell by 8.8pc in Great Britain compared with the same period in 2025, as prices increased by an average of 18.5pc.

    "Remember this time last year, we were already seeing some price increases in the beef category, so it's 18.5pc on top of some further price increases last year,” Mr Burke said.

    Across individual categories, mince volumes fell by 6.2pc, steaks by 10.9pc and roasting joints by 9.9pc. Meanwhile, prices increased, with mince up 17.1pc and roasting joints up 13.5pc, while steak values edged down slightly by 0.5pc.

    During the first quarter of 2026, Irish beef accounted for 64pc of the UK's fresh and frozen beef imports, which was down from 77pc in the same period in 2025. Mr Burke said the decline is being "mainly driven by that more competitive product” from Australia and New Zealand.

    "Their producer prices are significantly lower, and that product is coming in at a lower price point, and it's particularly aimed towards that food service and wholesale sector. A lot would be steak cuts going into the UK into restaurants, ultimately through wholesalers.

    "British and Irish beef dominate the British retail market. Similarly, for the higher tier, quick service restaurant or manufacturing market, the key players there have a commitment towards sourcing British and Irish beef.

    "But food service, the kind of lower to mid-tier restaurant, hotel and catering, it's at that level that many operators are considering that cheaper raw material coming in from the southern hemisphere.”

    The uK economy is stagnated since Brexit in 2020. Covid caused a 15-20% decline inbthe UK economy from which it has not recovered. The Australian and NZ free trade deal was put inmplace by the last Conservative government and if you think thing cannot get worse wait until after the next UK election to see what will happen if Reform UK get into power.

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,005 ✭✭✭weatherbyfoxer


    Agent rang me yeasterday wondering if I had 2 or 3 cattle to make up a lorry load for this morning. Sent on 3 angus heifers at €6.40 base with 15c breed bonus.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,085 ✭✭✭50HX


    Nice going

    And the chills are full/can't get cattle booked in🤔



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 22,614 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Most of them are fairly regular suppliers I imagine. Problem is its a vicious circle and at present the store price is killing thise finishers if they replace. Killed 6 yesterday not overly pretty off last years prices. FR/FRZ heifers and a cow. Below is price achieved, cost and gross margin as well as lenght on farm. Admittedly the longer term cattle were bought in a different market but they have not climed in price like those quality cattle.

    1675 cost 1000 margin 675 on farm 6 mths

    1500 cost 830 margin 670 on farm 9 mths

    1630 cost 220 margin 1400 on farm 20 mths

    1950 cost 1300 margin 660 on farm 9 mths

    1780 cost 200bmargin 1580 on farm 22 mths

    1950 cost 1250 margin 700 on farm 10 mths

    Margin on last year purchasses are back 300 off last years cost. Its leaves me 300 per head less to pay for stores.

    If prices were as good as last year the longer term ones would be 400 better.last year bought reared calves earlier and they were about 550 approx on average + extra rearing costs

    Tougher year but you get on with it. Saw an interesting article in yesterdays FI. About 20% of dairy heifers never get in calf 7% do not make it to 12 months.

    From watching marts another 15 percent do not make it much into the second lactation.

    Post edited by Bass Reeves on

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 22,614 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    They are starting to hit a wall. Watch the DFAM numbers next Tuesday. Heifer and Steer kill is dropping 500 per week combined. Cows and YB's have made up the difference so far but young cattle getting scarce

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,195 ✭✭✭Conversations 3


    Is it madness now to bother making silage and having the sheds full for the winter with the price going down and fertilizer and contractors prices going up?

    I don't generally winter finish unless a few are close at housing, just tip away with stores over the winter but is it worth the bother at this rate.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 5,108 Mod ✭✭✭✭Siamsa Sessions


    It's an education to read this thread.

    Whether you agree or disagree with other posters, there's always something to be learned. And it's not something you'll learn from the big budget, bullish advice of the IFJ or the State agency.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,811 ✭✭✭StevenToast


    "Less is more at this racket".....

    "SUBSCRIBE TO BOARDS YOU TIGHT CÙNT".....Plato 400 B.C



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 453 ✭✭grass10


    I didn't get yesterday's factory propaganda newspaper so thanks for posting that garbage from bord bia unless I'm way off but for the first 4 months this year the Irish factories processed approx 10% less cattle and consequently had 10% less beef avaliable to sell to the uk and if bord bia is correct we in fact did sell 10% less beef to the uk and aus/nz made up the difference this shouldn't result in a price collapse like has occurred and the chills most certainly are not full and if they are it's because the factories are filling cold stores with foreign beef maybe I'm missing something but the figures indicate that all our beef is easily getting sold and even if their were some small price pressure it shouldn't result in 400 euro per animal drop in farmer paid price since the start of 2026



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,860 ✭✭✭bogman_bass


    some people misunderstand the point of a newspaper be it farming Related or not.
    it’s there to report the facts so you can make informed decisions it’s not there to be a cheerleading platform only telling you the good news while the world burns down around you



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,295 ✭✭✭mr.stonewall


    Another issue is that dead weight is up by approx 5% this year so far. Helped by a good year last year for grass



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 22,614 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Last year I pointed out the danger of Australian and BZ beef. All I got back was the world wide shortage. Yet I have gone into supermarkets and eaten out and I have always seen beef available. We compete against Chicken and Pork as well. Yes I think they are tighter than they want to admit for Irish QA beef. However I have heard that UK retailer have cut prices to processors both in the UK and Ireland for all product 20-30% approximately. If you tjink UK retailers are allowing them to pull prices without cutting there price you are delusional.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,943 ✭✭✭Dunedin


    just on the prices above, is that the cost when buying them or the cost of buying plus meal/silage etc?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 453 ✭✭grass10


    I was talking to a senior beef industry person a few years ago and he quoting something from the farming media that was published the week before and I told him that I didn't believe half what was written and he replied that I was right because what's published is what the media is told to write and once most farmers believe it that'll do



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 453 ✭✭grass10


    I agree on numbers it was easy see it in marts from last Thursday to now qa fleshed cattle were well up on the previous 2 weeks and were a long way above official factory quotes and it's not any little agent or dealer that's paying well above what the animals would hang at I was at a mart and it was a factory employee that was buying.

    If the UK supermarkets had cut paid prices that much surely the factories would say so they are only signing about cold stores being full and we can't sell beef yet lamb is nearly 50% higher than beef right now



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,007 ✭✭✭kk.man


    Nobody is doubting the UK are not paying them the same price as last year. But there's some difference in getting a hammering and getting crucified.

    This cold storage thing smells to high heaven. It was never the factories business model to buy expensive beef and put it into cold storage, it doesn't make sense with a so called 3% margin and the cost of electricity.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,199 ✭✭✭Robson99


    It's very simple. Cattle / Beef was way too dear last year and unsustainable. The higher the climb the harder the fall. Smaller incremental increases would have been much more beneficial in the long run, but some lads thought that € 9 or € 10 / kg was going to be the new norm. Its far closer to € 5 than € 9 now



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 453 ✭✭grass10


    A factory agent / haulier said something similar to me recently that farmers should never have been paid over 8 euros and he was speechless when I told him that irish lamb was 7 to 7.50 per kg last year and their was no demand yet it's 9.50 to 10 with the last couple of months and their is no mention of lack of demand and secondly when this agent was procuring approx 100 cattle per week for 1 irish factory all last year virtually all on the grid with no flat prices the rest of us were selling cattle to other factories at over 8 euros he was costing his farmer customers easily 150 per head by convincing them to go to his favourite factory and yet he seems to think it was wrong what most factories were really paying

    Their is nothing wrong with getting a fair market value for your product and that's not happening atm

    Post edited by grass10 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,156 ✭✭✭morphy87


    In your opinion what’s a fair price for everyone involved to make a decent margin?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 744 ✭✭✭eire23


    Lamb never went below 8 last year and it's currently running around 40/50c ahead of this time last year. It needs to be where it is as nothing is getting cheaper and there will definitely be a huge decline in sheep if it drops. Probably more so than beef due the work load involved.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,199 ✭✭✭Robson99


    There is never a fair price for everyone especiall when 3 or more have to take a margin out of the same animal. What it needs to be is a steady price and not this yo yo efect

    Base price was circa € 5.20 in Oct 24. It jumped to € 7.20 in June 25. Now its circa € 6.20. Contenintal stores jumped 1k from Autumn 24 to Autumn 25. Nuts

    I think somewhere around € 6.50 is probably sustainable coupled with a correction in the store price come Autumn



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