Advertisement
Help Keep Boards Alive. Support us by going ad free today. See here: https://subscriptions.boards.ie/.
https://www.boards.ie/group/1878-subscribers-forum

Private Group for paid up members of Boards.ie. Join the club.
Hi all, please see this major site announcement: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058427594/boards-ie-2026

How many of us think that unification is no longer a priority and don't really want unification ?

1293032343540

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭JohnDoe2025


    If it begins with the calling of a Border Poll, tell us what you think will convince a British SoS to call a border poll, because if we can't get to that stage, nothing else matters.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Any number of things allow him/her to call a poll.

    A small change here (leadership) and the Irish government signalling they will be ready by commencing a Plan = it's now politically expedient. (Most likely scenario IMO)

    A change in government in the UK

    A successful attempt to remove or rework the WF resulting in more chaos in the UK-EU relationship

    The collapse of the Executive…again.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,104 ✭✭✭Juran


    I'm.sure people of NI will be delighted with VRT on new and imported cars and paying for a GP visits & prescriptions if they don't hold a medical card.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,418 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    Perhaps not, but they will trade this off with not having to pay large rates and with receiving more generous pensions etc.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 6,004 Mod ✭✭✭✭irish_goat


    We already for those via taxation, do you think doctors work for free? It's also near impossible to get a GP appointment so being free is irrelevant.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,960 ✭✭✭csirl


    To throw in a curveball here. I can see the UK government announcing that they will cut funding to N.I. in the event that a border poll doesnt succeed i.e. telling the people of N.I. that N.I. will have to be financially neutral to the UK if it wants to remain in the union.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    And that is what I see happening too.
    The production of a Plan by the government here will help people form a balanced view of what is on offer.

    I was interested in what approach Unionism will take. Will they sit down with the UK government to produce a Plan too on what is on offer if people are to vote to remain?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 830 ✭✭✭PixelCrafter


    I suspect the driver of this may be English nationalism, not Irish nationalism or unionism. The union is mattering less and less to English right wing voters and NI politics has basically always been a parallel system - they don’t vote for the same parties as England, and the way Westminster functions means they’re rarely relevant unless there’s a weird situation like a Tory minority and that confidence and supply agreement, but FPTP doesn’t really lend itself to that kind of thing other than in weird situations.
    I reckon what you’ll see here is a slide into a fracturing of British politicos and NI becoming rapidly very peripheral - politics won’t pay attention to its needs, budgets will tighten, things may turn very Little Englandish, and that’s where you’ll see a pragmatic shift happening. That’s also not going to be as fraught as a sudden thing driven by a push by nationalism, as you’ll end up with a consensus on a new direction.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Already well advanced and Dublin almost criminally sits twiddling it's thumbs. Essentially out of fear and a lack of ambition.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭JohnDoe2025


    None of those meet the criteria set out in the GFA, that it be likely that a border poll be passed. The SoS decision would be challenged under judicial review and the British government would face a constitutional crisis once it loses in court. A SoS would be certifiably insane to call a border poll under the circumstances put forward by you.

    Whatever I think of British ministers, however mad they are and have been, few enough of them over the centuries have been certifiably insane. It is fantastical dreaming that convinces you that the circumstances as outlined would lead to a border poll.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭JohnDoe2025


    They can't do that, that would be interfering with the referendum.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I refer you to a long debate here with Blanch152 where it was shown that Britain's highest courts decreed that the SoS cannot be constrained in his/her decision making process and does not have to justify it. Simple political expediency is enough for him/her to call one.
    Any judicial review would first have to overcome that judgement.
    We have heard the Judicial Review bluster from belligerent Unionism before and we know how all that turned out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭JohnDoe2025


    You cannot constrain in advance any Minister from making a decision, that would be an interference in the separation of powers doctrine. However, as is normal in law, any decision a Minister makes is challengeable after the fact by means of judicial review (in certain cases it may be possible to injunct a decision if you become aware it is imminent, but that has a higher bar than judicial review). If the decision is outside the powers of the Minister, or contrary to the laws of the land, including international law, it will be set aside. As I said, no sane SoS would risk their reputation by making a decision unless it was clear a border poll is going to pass.

    I don't know what discussion you had in the past, but the above is blindingly obvious to anyone with even a passing knowledge of the law. No point in discussing the issue if that basic premise of law is not accepted.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The clause in the GFA was challenged in the highest court in the UK.

    The court issued it's verdict - the SoS cannot be constrained.

    Judicial Review away, but best of luck winning it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,960 ✭✭✭csirl


    ?????

    When it happens, it will be because both the UK and Irish governments want it. Both will be advocating a yes vote. And its perfectly ok for the UK to set out what happens if it goes against them. Note that in the Scottish referendum, the likely deciding factor was because the UK government said it would veto Scotland joining the EU if the referendum went against them. (The irony of this today!!!).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    IMO don't think GB will as a government openly advocate for either option. They will try a middle of the road, 'whatever choice the people make' approach.
    Privately however and via back channels, the future will be made clear to all. Having seen all that has gone on since the GFA and the impossibility of pleasing belligerent Unionism, I can't see the messaging being positive for that cohort.

    While I think the government will adopt a neutral approach I think you'll see key MPs state their personal views and that too might get interesting depending on the state of UK politics.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 6,004 Mod ✭✭✭✭irish_goat


    Yep, you'll certainly not see the UK PM touring Belfast and Derry under any "Better Together" banners.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭JohnDoe2025


    Fair enough, you don't understand the legalities of decision-making and judicial reviews.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,071 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    They also wouldn't do this even if they could, they are not going to threaten their citizens with a threat like this, the cost of NI might be a millstone, but so are other former colonies that they continue to support.

    "You've got to help us government, we, SF, have tried suggest nothing and we're all out of ideas for the item that we post and talk about every day 24/7 constantly without stop, please government give us ideas that we can copy".

    Very pathetic :)



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    As I said before, anyone can take a JR, winning it against the weight of previous decisions is the problem.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    we're all out of ideas 

    Simply not true.

    Not sure who you are trying to convince with this.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭JohnDoe2025


    A judicial review doesn't stand or fall based on any previous decisions, it is a limited analysis of the facts.

    Did the Minister have the power to make the decision?

    Did the Minister act within the law (GFA) when making the decision?

    Was the decision unreasonable or irrational?

    Was the decision-making process fair, unbiased or breaching the rules of natural justice?

    Nothing to do with any previous case. As I said already, you don't seem to understand the judicial review process.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,071 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Well, no one, as you have seen from replies from every other poster. Enunciate your plan so at the nth time of asking, don't run away too fast. Have a free shot at the government for SF's shortcomings and set the deflector shields on full.

    image.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    What utter nonsense, are you saying that a barrister is not going to look to recent findings by the same court and advise a client wanting to take a JR accordingly? 😁😁

    Also, there is no guarantee that leave to bring a JR would be granted as the claimant would have to demonstrate a 'breach of the law'.

    The High Court of NI (where a JR would be heard) has already comprehensively set out the terms a SoS has to meet to take a legal decision. That will be the litmus test in a 'leave to bring a JR' assessment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I'm not a SF rep, and I'm not interested in selling you a UI.

    You made a claim about SF which is simply untrue as a 2 minute trip to google will tell you. They have plenty of ideas for a UI.

    You might not like them but they are there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭JohnDoe2025


    You do not have to demonstrate a breach of the law to bring a judicial review, that is utter nonsense, you just have to have locus standi. You are failing to understand the difference between bringing a judicial review and being successful in one.

    The High Court hasn't set out any terms a SoS has to meet to take a legal decision, in fact, it did the opposite, it said that the SoS has the freedom to decide on the parameters for its decision and can't be constrained in advance. It said nothing about post-decision judicial review, because no decision had been made, so it couldn't say anything. That previous ruling has no precedential effect in any way on a JR.

    The real difficulty for any challenger is that the court may rule that as the people will decide, it doesn't need to interfere.

    It is clear now that you either haven't read the decisions, or do not understand the legal process.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The High Court of NI has already ruled on what the SoS can do in the specific event of calling a border poll. He/She has absolute discretion and cannot be constrained.
    Therefore leave to take a JR on the above would be refused and a waste of time and the claimant's money.
    The only avenue left would therefore be a possible breach of the law/breach of procedure in some other way. Which would have to be laid out in pre-hearings.

    IMO a Judicial Review would fail. But I took that view before and JR's were taken anyway and failed. You have claimed this ruling won't be taken into account - that is utter nonsense TBH. The McCord Case has set legal principles that will have material effect on any Judicial Review.

    JR's on core political judgements have rarely succeeded in NI btw.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 354 ✭✭LastApacheInjun


    I don't really want unification. I'd vote no in a referendum.

    It's seems weird to say. I have always thought I would vote for a UI, my family was always nationalist, my grandfather was imprisoned during the War of Independence etc.

    I just can't see what the benefit would be for the Republic? NI doesn't bring anything to the table. We'd have to deal with Unionists in our parliament, if they'd even take their seats. And they are super religious - could another abortion referendum happen? Could they align themselves with the tiny far right faction in Ireland. And the cost of them. Their standard of living would drop, as we wouldn't subsidise them like the UK does, and our standard of living would drop as they'd be a drain on our resources. And we all know what happens when standards of living drop - crime goes up, and the extremists jump in. And the threat of violence from the diehards…. Like, where is the benefit?

    I think, hand on heart, a lot of nationalists in the North will vote no too. People aren't idiots. Romanticise all you want but what people care most about is the money in their back pocket. The whole reason nationalism rose in the North was because catholics were poorer. Take away the money issue and you'll find people aren't as nationalist as they think.



  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,951 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I'm consistently amazed by your complete incuriosity of British politics when it is so relevant to NI.

    Claiming Irish interest would provide political expediency implies the UK govt wants to call a border poll - they do not. If they did it would have come up at some point during the Brexit mess.

    A change in government also won't help unless it is a majority Green government (which it won't be). Reform are english nationalists but they'd sooner strangle NI then give them any say whatsoever in their future. Labour and Tories have far too many other things on their plate - which is why the much more popular calls for a Scottish ref will also come to naught.



Advertisement
Advertisement