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Convection /Thunderstorm discussion Spring /Summer 2026
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Still a decent chance of a few storms in the Nw tomorrow as heavy showers move northeastwards in the afternoon.Good Mlcape values along with some nice wind shear and lapse rates in 18c afternoon temps should allow good instability and a chance for large hail.
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Upper Trough going through negative phase in the afternoon /early evening during the passage of a cold front and decaying occluded front, colder upper air following, good shear available but atmosphere profile looks quite saturated. Fairly high pockets of CAPE showing up on models but skinny at that, Lifted Index is marginal I would think. Fronts moving over surface temperatures probably getting up to the mid to high teens ( highest in the E ) with DP's in the mid teens , this may aid forcing helping convection form along the Cold Front as the air following the front is much cooler than the air it is moving into I reckon, this might be the greatest aid to storm formation if they get going . Convection possible with heavy downpours moving across the country in the afternoon into the evening further E and NE, will see if some become electrified, maybe pulse type isolated storms if they do occur. Possibility of storms is present as the parameters although maybe marginal in some aspects all coincide during the afternoon with peak heating. Don't think there is enough energy for any very large storms or super cells like on Weds .Will see what transpires.
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Think portions of the East should keep a eye to the skies tmrw, GFS models good instability for the region and strong 3CAPE of 110. I wouldn't be surprised to see a funnel or two from any pulse storms. AROME has a robust solution with thunderstorms impacting Dublin, i heavily doubt we manage that much CAPE down here as it suggests. Regsrdles, if we can stretch that vorticity tomorrow, we could see a few funnels. I expect fairly sporadic convection across the east tmrw like the Swiss4x4 has. 3CAPE is likely stronger than modeled on this sounding. Plenty of low level instability in there. I wouldn't rule out the odd strikes either.
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Yeah the East and NE in with the possibility of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon/ early evening. Set to get quite warm in the afternoon up to 20 or 21C with DP's in the mid teens. Passage of cold Front and occluded front and possibly a short wave trough all under the upper trough. CAPE could be as high as 600 too 800J/kg by the time it reaches the East and add the coastal sea convergence into that will make it interesting.
Skew Chart for Kilcock , Co Kildare for around 17.00, plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, parameters good for thunderstorm.
Also along the SW, S early tomorrow morning might see a few sparks, may not come inland though will see.
Some more days this week with a similar set up showing the NE, E with best chance of isolated storms in the afternoon/ early evenings.
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