Nuclear - future for Ireland?

if only you spent as much time answering basic questions of how much and how long current approach would take as inventing figures while we remain the most expensive electricity in Europe and one of the most polluting

Nuclear is the generation our grid was designed for.

Large capacity generating plants close to where the highest demand was. It was not designed to have every line down to the most local being used as a deliverer of generation while at the same time being use by renewables as a push back - for solar with the added problems of thousands upon thousands of inverters to convert DC to AC - that would require an upgrade costing €20 Billion paid for by the taxpayer and consumers that these renewable companies are not going to contribute a cent towards.

Wind has increased in price by 75% in just four years. That is verifiable as I have shown earlier today. Doubling in ten year for nuclear is a figure off the top of the head from someone who was predicting massive reductions in the cost of wind in 2022 when turbine manufacturer were going to the wall and still refuses to see how wrong they were.

As to which is intermittent you have only to look at the capacity factor of renewables and nuclear to see which are the main culprits.

Presently we have 7.5GW of renewables installed capacity for a 6GW grid where last year we imported ~15% of our requirements. We will not even reach 23% of the 51% requirement on emissions by 2030, and we have the most expensive electricity in Europe for a country with the same population as Finland whose electricity costs are one quarter of ours. So what have renewables given us to date ?

To continue with the same with this 37GW offshore hydrogen plan would require, for the turbines alone, a capital investment of €450 Billion for the 60 year lifespan of nuclear - also verifiable in real world examples I posted today - and would still not provide our 2050 requirements and see us burning more gas than we are now.

Wind priced itself out of the market four years ago and those companies have resorted to blackmailing countries now to get the strike prices and terms they want. This hasn`t gone unnoticed with countries now looking to those with cheaper electricity and seeing it is not sheer coincidence they are those with nuclear in their mix, and that those state owned are using the profits from that nuclear generation to provide their consumers with reasonably priced electricity and following those examples. Poland and Belgium for starters.

When you see the biggest political party here now in favor of lifting the ban on nuclear, it says a lot about how the wind is now blowing. And it`s not through an offshore turbine.

Nuclear fission was invented in 1938. The first plant was built in 1951, 13 years later.

Why, 70 years later would it take 3 times longer to build a plant?

That aside, if it is going to take 40 years to build a plant then we better get started. Its just going to cost more money to continue to delay the delivery.

French nuclear for the past 3 years while keeping the lights on in Europe, have made a profit of over €5 Billion each year from exports alone. It would have been even larger had the not been compelled under the ARENH mechanism to sell an even greater volume to renewable companies to keep them in business since 2011 @ €0.042/kWh. For context we are paying €0.404/kWh. 10 times more.

Take a look at the lowest prices for electricity in the E.U. and compare them to the highest and then tell me that nuclear plays no part in those countries having cheaper electricity and it`s all down to renewables.

Or even explain why the outlier of the most expensive, Belgium, is now nationalising it`s nuclear and adding further nuclear for any other reason than to do the same as the lowest priced countries that are using their nuclear generation to provide their citizens with reasonably priced electricity. Poland also going the same route.

you must be very naive or don’t understand what’s required to build large infrastructure projects in Ireland.

I asked a simple question and your initial reaction was to call me naive and that I don't understand large projects.

Charming.

let’s add context.

Poland initially planned one in 1956

In 1986 they gave the go ahead, construction started in 1982 and stopped in 1990.

They rebooted the program in 2009

Construction is due to start in 2028 and come on line in 2036

No doubt it’ll be delayed and over budget.

The average building costs of a 100. Sqm house in Poland is 70k, it’s 250k in Ireland.

That 43bn. Could easily be over €100bn here

how long do you think we could Deliver one ?

What I'm trying to say is dont be waiting for cheap electricity from nuclear , even if we signed up immediately, at the same strike price as the poles are likely to announce, that price obviously wouldn't kick in till the plant is commissioned and producing electricity.. that price is fixed but index linked for 40 years ( probably) , its also a 24 hr - 365 days a year price - 3 am low demand for power - the grid is still paying the same price ,

Plus all the other grid costs , including spinning reserve, transmission, grid stabilization ect still have to be added

Thats not to say Nuclear energy is not value - but dont think its gonna be cheap.. maybe if the state owns the NPP after the 40 years of operation, they can then use that to put cheaper electricity onto the grid . ( After theyre paying any refurbishment costs ,and putting aside money for decommissioning)

not really. Explain how you got €450bn …

Incidentally, wind turbines have gotten considerably dearer, largely due to commodity prices , development costs and risk ..

All that affects nuclear too .. but the risk even more so because the timeframes are longer ,

what number did I fire around ?

I substantiated my costs by comparing building costs in Poland to Ireland

When did I ever say i oppose nuclear?

All along I’ve said it would take 2 long to build and to costly. But I never opposed it.

Finland`s OL 3 1.6GW NPP went on line in 2023. Even years late and over budget it cost €7 Bn. per GW.

France is planning to add 14 with the initial phase featuring 6 confirmed with a combined capacity of 10 GW for €75 Bn. €7.5 Bn. per GW.

It doesn`t look as if either share your view on nuclear being too expensive now. Or indeed when you see the profits France is making exporting nuclear and the prices both countries consumer are now paying for their electricity compared to ours. If anything Finland`s OL 3 is a standout for nuclear in how it so drastically cut the price to the consumer plus the reduction of it`s energy imports

How much would the capital cost for renewables be to to provide 1 GW over a like for like 60 years ?

And before you do the usual anti nuclear of the cost rising, offshore has risen by 75% since 2022. 20% in the last two years alone.

Now, Now - don't you know that wind power is cheap and cheerfull in the Tellytubbly land that is Energy policy in Ireland….

PS: An energy specialist on Newstalk yesterday said that Irish Energy prices are now among the highest in the world, let alone the EU!!