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Nuclear - future for Ireland?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,491 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    they are adding more of Everything , just more RES than Coal.

    A lot less energy goes into production of wind and solar than comes out of it.
    Your comments are beyond hilarious, at this stage you are just trolling



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,736 ✭✭✭Consonata


    I provided figures for build times for off shore wind. Neither of ye are willing to even provide a rough guesstimate of how long a NPP will take to build based on what has been completed in Europe.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    Yes they are adding more of everything and still most of their energy comes from coal

    You can try to spin whatever way you want but the facts remain



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    China can be a pretty crap example of many things - ( except whats possible) ,

    Wind ,solar , batteries , coal , and nuclear - if its been decided from on high that these should be constructed - then chinese yuan will be put down for construction - and done at breakneck speed - it may not be economical to do so. . i'm not sure are they future proofing their energy supply, ? Replacing older ,more polluting plant - or just building for the sake of it -

    Because of their scale, currency control and their system of government they seem to be getting away with it ..for now at the very least

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    I did 8-12 years from the first concrete pour


    which is much less than 40 years you pulled out some hole and much less than 24 years left to the 2050 targets (with its 37GW offshore wind!) Ireland has set



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,736 ✭✭✭Consonata


    So you are saying Ireland would build a brand new Nuclear power plant, with no supply chain, no nuclear engineering sector, and no suitable site with grid connection,

    Faster than the UK will build Hinckley Point C?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,491 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    it'd easily be 28 years before you get to pouring concrete…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    EDF now know how to build EPRs and that’s what they claim for all the new plants they be building in France, Finns also have experience, Ukrainians have experience and soon Poles

    And of course the are Koreans who explicitly give a 10 year timeline and budget

    You greenies want to have it both ways, you want to insist we have no expertise or can’t bring expertise from Europe and beyond to build nuclear but to build offshore wind that’s exactly what we will have to do too

    because we are not serious about climate change and all the noise about co2 is just that, performative noise and dance without much in way of real achievement to show for Europes most expensive electricity



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,517 ✭✭✭KrisW1001


    Do EDF know how to build a Nuclear Power Plant? I’m asking because they seem to be very bad at it.

    The Finns have “experience”, all right, but they did not build their plant themselves: their NPP was built by… oh it’s a total mess, but the summary now is “the French Government, trading as EDF”. The Wikipedia article on “Areva”, the company that actually signed the contract, has this gem of an opening, which is enough to summarise the total mess that happened.

    Areva was created on 3 April 2001 by the merger of three French nuclear-industry players: Framatome (later: Areva NP, now: Framatome), Cogema(later: Areva NC, now: Orano Cycle) and Technicatome (later: Areva TA, now: Technicatome).

    This was basically a bit of a shell-game, as the French government was the controlling owner of all three parts all the way along. The initial idea was to combine the various state-controlled nuclear businesses and privatise them as Areva, but the markets weren’t at all interested, so the plan was shelved, but the single entity remained.

    In 2003, Areva won the contract for delivery of the Generation 3 EPR reactors, particularly Flammanville 3 in France and Olkilouto 3 (OL3) in Finland. Construction on OL3 started in 2005, with operation scheduled for late 2009, quickly revised to “early 2010”.

    In 2016, six and a half years after the predicted opening, TVO, the Finnish power operator, got tired of Areva’s constant delays and charges and called their bluff: they told Areva that they’d already paid for their power plant, they were sick of waiting for it, they were not going to pay one euro more for it, and in fact, by their reckoning, Areva now owed them half a billion euro in penalty fees and lost generation income.

    (A reminder that one should never mess with a Finn.)

    This caused no small problem for Areva, as they didn’t have the money to complete OL3. So, they effectively declared themselves bankrupt, allowing the French state to bail them out by making government-controlled EDF purchase the business. The three constituents of Areva spun out again, leaving a sacrificial company (Areva SA), funded by EDF, to pay compensation to the Finns.

    OL3 eventually began commercial production in 2023, eighteen years after first construction, thirteen years after projection, and the government of France picked up the tab. Finland’s cheap nuclear energy from OL3 is basically an intra-EU subsidy from France.

    Flammanville 3, sister to OL3, started construction two years after OL3 and took nineteen years from construction start (Dec 2007) to commercial operation (Dec 2026), fourteen years later than projected.

    And, of course, EDF are also building Hinkley Point.. construction started in 2017, and they’re claiming 2030 as the commissioning start (which would be 2031/2032 for full commercial operation).

    Do you believe them? I don’t. Not anymore.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,491 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    you are hilarious


    you canines we have offshore experience , yet ESB have built and are building several.

    And know you are saying we have nuclear experience


    I’m not sure EDF would be allowed bid for a Nuke plant in Ireland ( their owners wouldn’t let them, from my experience with them it’s domestic projects only )



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    A government does not put its hand in its pocket to pay for anything. It puts its hand in the pocket of its citizens via direct taxation to pay.

    Where a government enters into an agreement with private enterprise - like a strike price agreement - then that is an indirect state tax as nobody other than the consumer is going to end up paying for. It doesn`t leave the total cost any cheaper for the consumer. Especially as governments often can access credit on better terms than a private enterprise. The Poland/U.S. funding of Poland`s NPPs being an example.

    Every state within the E.U. had their hands tied on power generation going back to 40 years ago with the introduction of the E.U. "First Energy Package Directive" in 1996 that legally mandated all E.U. states to begin dismantling state monopolies. At that time we, and ironically Denmark, had the cheapest electricity in Europe.

    This lead to the Integrated Single Electricity Market to "liberalize" consumers from the control of monopolies, and by way of private business competition, provide affordable electricity. There is no denying now that this "liberalization" was hijacked by a green agenda within the E.U. with the marginal pricing policy, emissions targets and fines for non compliance. Affordable electricity was thrown out the window in favor of an agenda and has now lead to a handful of renewables private companies being what that "liberalization" was meant to end,who are now the monopoly holding governments to ransom. They are now dictating the strike price that their generation will be paid for, even when not needed and will not pay a red cent to upgrade grids when the grid problems are those caused by their generation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    ESB haven’t built any offshore farms

    The one and only and now shutdown (after burning down) offshore farm after 20 years (4x less life of a nuclear plant) was built by GE and operated by airtricity

    Every single planned offshore facility is gonna (if ever) be built by foreign companies (one hilariously enough being EDF) as they have the expertise with ESB being a “partner” in the very remote sense of that word



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,736 ✭✭✭Consonata


    Sure but do you want to be depending on claims, rather than accepted reality?

    Like when planning investment of 30-60bn into one power plant, we can't exactly afford to be the bleeding edge.

    The NPP reactors which have been built in Europe have all

    A) been built on existing Nuclear Power Plant facilities

    B) In Countries which have a history of Nuclear Energy Production

    C) Have all taken at least a decade if not more. Hinckley likely will take 15 years from ground being broken.

    When discussing these things there is 0 point in basing it on claims of what could be done when it never has been done before. Its intellectually dishonest



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,736 ✭✭✭Consonata


    Given that Point C will take 20 years from being floated to actually being completed, and that is for an additional reactor on an existing nuclear site, in a country which has a nuclear energy industry.

    We currently have a Nuclear energy ban, with no readily available production line of the materials needed for nuclear power, the estimate of 40 years is likely closer to the mark than 20?

    Can you come up with a better figure.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,491 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    Neart Na Gaoithe https://nngoffshorewind.com

    Inch Cape https://www.inchcapewind.com

    And Galloper. ( only had limited input into it.

    https://galloperwindfarm.com


    Tonn nua is been built by ESB.

    A nuckear plant may have a longer longer life. Blue capital Costs are many times more expensive. That why you look at LOCE



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    Well if we actually had population who actually cared about climate change instead of paying most expensive electricity prices for one of the dirtiest in Europe still

    Instead of virtue signaling and greenwashing performative circus it could be done faster

    Start with yourself and your friends here who are spending so much time and effort arguing against co2 free energy in support of what leads to perpetual gas burning here and coal burning in China

    The government already has started making noises about lifting the environmentalists imposed ban as they coming to realisation that handing away 28 billion for nothing would be the end of any government



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    first two are in Scotland (not Ireland) mostly owned by the evil EDF of nuclear fame, second is in England

    Countries with long long history of offshore construction and for that matter nuclear

    You keep wanting to talk out of both sides of your mouth insisting that we can’t get expertise for nuclear but not realising same argument works against your expensive and unreliable offshore wind

    Post edited by bored65 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,491 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    I never said we can’t get expertise for nuclear. You however said we have now experience with offshore wind. Indeed several of my colleagues have worked on nuclear.

    Yes they are in Scotland. So is the ESB team developing them. It’s how experience is built up.


    If we decided to build niceale tomorrow how many years before we could pour an ounce of concrete?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    that’s an entirely political question not a question of the engineering or technology

    And we do have a history of big projects, a certain dam took a third our GDP and was done in few years to supply 99% our electricity

    A nuclear plant would be between 3 and 5% our gdp now or about as much as we are about to give away to Chinese carbon tax scammers



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    25 years, that’s how long it took France to build 57 reactors from 1974

    that year their GDP was 284bn $ (1.1 trillion adjusted for inflation since) ours is currently sitting at 779bn $

    at the time of this post we are second dirtiest in Europe behind Poland producing 21x more CO than France per kWh

    While remaining the most expensive

    IMG_6937.jpeg

    Guess what our 9GWh of wind and solar doing?

    IMG_6939.jpeg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,736 ✭✭✭Consonata


    Yes but it's 2026, not 1974 when the French managed that, nor is it 1925 when this country built Ardnacrusha.

    Wishcasting that we can somehow pull this off is just pointless.

    It would be 45% of our annual spending in a given year? Greater than what we spend on Social Protection, Education, and Transport combined. Using our hyper inflated GDP numbers to make a silly point is just lying?

    It can't be done faster. Even if the country had a complete change of heart overnight, it still likely would be beyond 2060 before a NPP generated a Kw of power. Thats based on real world timelines of how long Nuclear takes to build in Europe.

    Now, that might be worth doing? Sure. But lets deal in realities here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    Yes it’s 2026 and that’s why we have the most expensive and one of the dirtiest grids and about to spend a further 200bn+ and still be even more expensive and reliant on gas and not green

    Either climate change is important or it’s not because all the current approach does is line the pockets of US gas turbine manufacturers and US, Gulf and Norwegian gas exporters while furthering Chinas greenwashing agendas

    You are worried about nuclear maybe taking to long (lol) while ignoring that the current approach has already clearly failed and doubling down on stupid is… stupid and costly and misses all them fluffy targets



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,736 ✭✭✭Consonata


    Maybe too long? Have you evidence that it won't take a very long time? You seem to be entertaining a delusion we can somehow build a brand new NPP faster than Hinckley



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,491 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    we haven’t delivered a metro over 100 years. We are now just upgrading out Victorian water system.
    The last big project was Dublin port tunnel.

    it would be at least 30’yeats to get to the pouring stage.

    Out electricity is dearer because we are an island with no AC interconnecters. We don’t have tall mountain ranges. We don’t have oil or gas. All our fuel is imported.

    We’ve half the population of London living in an island 46 times larger. So that’s adds to Transmission and distribution costs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Yet b4 the wind energy nonsense via various RESS post 2000, our energy prices were below the EU averge



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    why get out of bed in morning /s

    Is that the best you can come up with in an infrastructure forum? Why bother building infrastructure?!

    Here are two reasons:

    • have cheaper electricity
    • have greener electricity

    do you disagree with either? Why?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,491 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    You have a very strange way of reading posts… where did I ever say don’t bother building infrastructure? That’s several times you have misquoted me I suggest you stop seen what you want to see and actually read posts


    A large nuclear project would take 40+ years before it could be commissioned. What do we do in the next interim ? That’s the part you can’t answer. You think we could deliver a nuclear plant over night.

    Building a. Nuclear plant won’t give use cheaper electricity. It would have if we built in the 70s, 80s and possible 90s.

    Post edited by ted1 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    The 40 year thing is something you invented as it’s hard to argue against nuclear with any sane rational argument so you have to resort to making up things

    Repeating a lie often enough doesn’t make it true



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    China is building new coal plants and increasing its annual usage of gas because the reliability of renewables is pretty crappy as they found out in 2021 and 2022 when they had blackouts.

    China`s manufacturing is 24/7 and is based on their South East coast. Their solar is from their North Western region where there are 9 Winter daylight hour and thousands of kilometers from their manufacturing base. Much like Germany and wind. Solar is pretty crap for 24/7 manufacturing.



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