Goalscorers Betting Log

Inglesias DNS, Ezzalzouli loser.

We are in the weeds.

Light the beacons of Gondor!

We have a winner

Sadiq ( Valencia) @ 7.00

Balde (Rodez ) @3.10

Edmondson ( St Pats) @3.00

Speaking of today...

Nielsen ( St Liege) @ 4.50

Toure ( Hoffenheim) @ 4.50

Demirovic ( Stuttgart) @ 2.10

Zivzivadze ( Heidenheim) @ 2.50

Shomurodov ( Basaksehir) @ 2.25

Juan Santos ( Goztepe) @ 3.75

Pedro Lima ( AFS) @ 6.00

Victor ( Braga) @ 2.60

Good luck us, we need it now more than ever.

I may have exaggerated how yesterday could make or break us, today though probably can, biggest Sunday of the season....

Sinayoko ( Auxere) @ 4.60

Lepaul ( Rennes) @ 2.50

Tolisso ( Lyon) @ 3.20

Wahi ( Nice) @ 2.50

Vlahovic ( Juventus) @ 2.05

Alisson Santos ( Napoli) @ 3.50

Parrott 2 or more ( AZ) @ 3.80

Pepi ( Psv) @ 2.38

Sanches Fernandez ( Excelsior) @ 4.50

Curtis ( Kilmarnock) @ 3.40

Iglesias ( Celta Vigo) @ 3.30

Martinez ( Alaves) @ 2.30

Adams ( Sevilla) @ 2.62

Benedyczak ( Kasimpasa) @ 3.10

Good luck us.

Week 38 stats

Starting BR : €300 ( €224.75)

Total bets : 894 ( 25)

Total wins : 270 ( 9)

XG of players this week : 7.80

Average xG : 0.31

Average price : 3.10

Implied win rate: 32.3%

Actual win rate: 36%

Profit : - €68.83 ( + €6.92)

BR starting week 39 : €231.17

Sunday saved us, next weekend might well be the last week of the season . Will have our work cut out to finish in profit.

Nope

Winner

Martinez ( Alavez) @ 2.45

End of Seaon 1 Stats

Ok i'm going to break these up a little into the basic stats, and then the more detailed xG and odds related stats.

Basic Stats

Bankroll Starting season : €300

Banrkroll Ending season : €243.34

Profit/Loss : -€56.66

Total bets : 898

Total wins : 290

Winrate : 32.3%

XG stats (doesn't include week 1)

Season XG : 294.36

Average XG : 0.33

Price Stats (Starts week 25)

Average price : 3.51

Implied Winrate : 28.5%

Ok so there we have it. We lost a little overthe season but…….tbh I think looking at the stats it actually went ok. Almost 1000 bets and for the majority of the season we were in profit is pretty encouraging. A couple ofbad weeks towards the end took the gloss off, but not having to deposit over the entire season and enjoying the process/sweats means this was a successful outing imo.

Soem of those stats are a little rough around the egdes as some weeks didn't have certain numbers calculated, also the total wins took a jump (18) as when I was compiling the above I realised I didn't count an entire weeks worth.

To anyone thats followed this season I hope it was someway interesting. Any feedback on improvements that could be made for next season very much welcome.

So now we enter the off season , I'll be keeping the BR as is and still posting but since it will only be LOI and the WC, I wont be posting weekly stats, I'll do one big off season stat compile at the end.

Cheers

Thanks for following man, yeah we definitely peaked then a couple really poor weeks torpedoed any hope of profit. But im still relatively proud of it and I've a few things in mind I can definitely improve on for next season.

70% is a ridiculous hit rate, you must pick well : D

xG is essentially the mathematical expression of how good a chance is.

Easiest way to explain is that a penalty is 0.79 xG, meaning 79% of penalties are scored. So an tap in from a yard out with have a very high xG while a shot from 25 yards will have a very low.

So my average xG for the season was 0.33, meaning my picks should win 1 in ever 3 times. Which pretty much bears out in the stats, my win rate was 32.3%.

Its by far the most valuable stat when trying to pick a player.

Ok so first game of the off season is interesting

Sarr has scored alot in this competition, but Rayo are a good team and have in form strikers, so I ended up on this...

Sarr shot on target @ 2.00

Alemao @ 3.75

Alemao's likely substitute is also in good form so ive taken the lower price on WH with the SS bonus

Ok some pre World cup bets

Top goalscorer for team

Appollis ( South Africa) @ 6.50

Son ( South Korea) @ 2.25

Tabakovich ( Bosnia) @ 8.00

Balogun ( USA) @ 4.50

Ndoye ( Switzerland) @ 7.00

Saibari ( Morocco) @ 4.50

Shankland ( Scotland) @ 4.50

Diallo ( Ivory Coast) @ 5.00

Oyarzabal ( Spain) @ 2.63

Lukebakio ( Belgium) @ 18.00

Taremi ( Iran) @ 2.10

Suarez ( Colombia) @ 3.00

Also done Qatar to finish on 0 points @ 2.50

And a win the group acca of Mexico, Switzerland, Turkey, Belgium, Spain, France, Argentina, England @ 43.00

Edit : Be careful which bookies you use if you are thinking of doing any outright GS bets, I did mine with PP which operate dead heat rules, while some others are win only.