General Irish politics discussion thread

Update. I am rarely right, stopped clock etc😂

However Boylan was just such an obvious dud , and yeah their will be the usual caveats, Ennis was formidable etc but this was an abysmal result for SF and less said about Galway the better.

I know some SF supporters will point to the wretched performance of FF but Martin has won elections (sadly) something which you would not bet Mary Lou on doing anytime soon.

I don't think their is a slam dunk replacement ,,maybe Boylan or Carthy if pushed but she can't lead them into the next election.

Is the day of "the heave" gone.

SF and FF both dismal performances in two by-elections yet no sign of the leaders being ousted.

In the old days there would be a queue to get rid of them.

MM and FF are using the excuse that he needs to be in place for the EU Presidency, to me that's a stretch.

SF is a special case, they don't tend to allow internal descent, we saw that from the length of time Adams was in the roll soid say Mary-Lu is safe, but is there no one in FF to stand up?

The fact that Kyne won the Galway byelection must be a huge disappointment to all the opposition. A FG win followed by an IE right candidate taking a left seat there. I wouldnt have expected that.

FF have had some fairly long lasting leaders, but he's blasted past Bertie's term at this stage - I don't think even he thinks he can beat Dev's 33.

Ivana Bacik has accused SF of moving to the right and says that while Labour, the SDs and the Greens can be described as left wing or centre left, she doesn't think this could be said of SF.

A big problem for SF is that they are trying to appeal to the left, the centre and the right - to the point where nobody is entirely sure what the hell they stand for and what their identity is. Being clear in their wish for a united Ireland doesn't really tell us much (and it's hardly a burning issue).

As you point out, the different and competing factions within the party are contributing to this no end and leaving many of the electorate scratching their heads and wondering what sort of a party they are.

She's not wrong. Look at where SF got a lot of transfers from in Dublin Central - Hutch voters. And according to irish times politics podcast, a lot of SF transfers in Galway went to independent Ireland, not Labour or sic Dems.

So while SF might want to say they are on the left, their voters might not be…

Immigration has never been an issue for me …… I have no evidence of any immigrants doing anything wrong …… e.g. public transport …… the non-nationals sit in and are quiet/do their business ….. the drugged up lowlife natives smoke crack cocaine start to fight cause trouble ……

The LATTER would very much be the far right voter class …… but Ireland would be actually a better place without them not the immigrants ….. at this stage any politician who bangs on about immigration squanders my vote basically ….. they bang on about that and have nothing else to offer …… and of course do not acknowledge all the services immigrants provide in the workplace that the white druggie football hooligan class never would …….

Whatever SF may say or do, it is clear that the electorate in Galway did not see their candidate as 'of the left', the transfers tell us this. And that reflects positions adopted nationally by MLMD and the leadership of the party rather than the candidate. ( the fuel protests, just being the latest issue ).

Sadly, as a left leaning voter, I no longer see SF as a left party . Worse, its' posturing is actually eating into genuine left parties. For me, they either need to get their house in order very quickly of they will relinquish the title of main opposition to the government.

Vote Left Transfer Left didn't work for SF, really shouldn't be part of it, but they can take consolidation that they came second in Dublin.

I think FF are in a much worse position there is nothing that they can really say positive about the 2 elections, and as they are the biggest party in the dail, they have more more to loose.

Really SF and Aontu would have wanted to keep their polling number in both cases, and indeed that would have lead to SF winning in both areas.

Why would FF want to pull out of government?

If they folded the govt and there was a general election, FFs natural choice of govt under MM would be an FFG coalition.

So what would be the point?

There are enough voters in the country that are happy for FFG to stay in power.

Yes, for now. Never said otherwise.

If FF perform in a GE as they did in the by-elections then the tipping point of their declining vote share (which is heading towards a tipping point) will be reached quicker than thought.