Dublin Central By-election

If I remember right it was an abandoned building in Temple Bar - I think he was off his head on drink or drugs. Anyway it's years ago and he seems to be reformed. He's a strange character, doesn't seem to have any deep political philosophy. I've met him a couple of times - he told me he kept standing in Dail elections because he seemed to get more votes every time and figured that if he stood enough times he'd eventually get elected - looking at his record if it was ever true it's not been the case recently. There are definitely worse people to vote for but I'd struggle to find a reason to vote for him although he might find himself at the end of the list of people I could cast a vote for and just above the people I couldn't bring myself to give even a low preference to. I don't get why he's running in Dublin Central but maybe he's just got the running in elections bug.

Mannix Flynn isn't far off becoming one of these head the balls who stick their name down in 10 constituencies each general election. Clare Daly performed abysmally but at least she had some sort of profile that could potentially have made her a viable candidate, I'm afraid Mannix is wasting our time and his own with this. Make sure you transfer down the ballot because safe to say his votes will be getting distributed early.

He's a strange character, doesn't seem to have any deep political philosophy.

Yeah that was the vibe I got from his leaflets/posters, seemed to be cultivating some local 'cult of personality'…

This analysis was mentioned in the Galway West thread but it covers Dublin Central as well.

https://irishelectionprojections.com/2026/05/19/dublin-central-and-galway-west-by-election-poll-analysis/

It's very thorough and I'd pretty much agree on the DC analysis , and I haven't seen anything in the last week that would change my mind.
I got an opportunity to run the numbers based on the opinion poll.
My reckoning, based on a turnout of 30000 (less than 50% turnout) , has the last four candidates as (in order with percentage of remaining votes) - Ennis (30) , Boylan (26), Hutch (23), McAdam (20)

It could be either Hutch or McAdam to go first but I suspect it doesn't matter - McAdam's votes will go primarily to Ennis - neither Hutch nor Boylan will feature much in his transfers. Hutch's votes will probably favour Boylan but that's not guaranteed - his seconds were probably predominately already eliminated independents and I suspect will have a lower transfer rate han McAdams.
So although in theory it could end up Ennis 50%, Boylan 49% I just can't see that - I think Ennis will always have the edge.

There are no lines to blur.

Any person standing, whether as a novice or seeking re-election, stands on their record.

McAdam is Lord Mayor of the capital and is running for the national parliament. It would be naive to think that he would not leverage one for the other to the greatest extent possible. And there is nothing improper about doing so.

presumably Boylan as sf are most effective at marshaling their voters

Yeah but a bigger chunk of their support would be floaters and they would be more heavily dependent on transfers from that uncommitted soft left cohort whereas for SF just mobilising Mary Lou's army would get them a long way to victory

for example, emigrants are still allowed to vote at home up to 18 months after leaving, and students living away on weekdays can still be considered resident at home.

These are not 'loopholes', they are defined rights and totally within the law,

Not really.

Given that Sinn Féin remains stubbornly transfer toxic, 21% (+/-) is absolutely miles off.

It remains advantage the Soc Dems, IMHO

Remember that Dublin Central has the lowest turnout to begin with, you need to apply that to the generally lower BE turnout.

The last BE in the constituency had a fairly high turnout, but it was against the most unpopular Government in the modern era (2009, FF/GP).

One candidate in common from 2009 to 2026 - Steenson; and some big names running in it (Pascal Donohue, Ivana Bacik) and some things that are now anachronistic - Steenson running for the Workers Party and Christy Burke for SF!

Its pretty clear Ennis will win the Central seat, and fair dues to him.

In Galway, as a FG supporter, I'm very pleased and impressed with Sean Kyne's vote, and regardless of whether he actually comes through in the end, its a good day for him and his personal popularity in the constituency. Noel Thomas may be too strong across a wider voter segment, but my fingers are crossed.

The main takeaway, however, even at this early stage, has to be the huge question marks over the position of Mary Lou McDonald as SF leader.

And its not just the fact that she won't carry the seat in her own stronghold. Its the fact that SF are positioned in a basket with the cranks and the crooks and the liars and the dog whistlers.

Even I don't think Boylan or even McDonald herself are there legitimately, but the party must surely be ringing alarm bells within as to how they find themselves there in the minds of voters at this juncture.

There is no question that their inconsistent and ambiguous policy stances on a number of key issues, and being well behind others of the left when it comes to opposition performance, must surely be among the main factors.

To me, its clear that MLMD will never lead SF into another election again. The question is, how long will it take the SF 'blob' to accept that, act on it, and allow her successors to rebuild their brand before June 2029.

Certainly will be scrutiny of MLMD but I would think the 'main takeaway' would have to be a governing party's performance in both By-Elections. Not just a bad performance, which can sometimes be expected in a by election, but an abysmal performance.
Maybe that is just me though.

I don't know about that. It's a poor result, but not as bad as the meltdown of FF, whose vote has collapsed by almost half across both constituencies. Martin is the Taoiseach and canvassed personally on behalf of both candidates. To come away from a constituency that used to be a stronghold of theirs with just 4% of the vote is a total disaster and an utter rejection of Martin as an individual who should be leading this country.

I know but he would have had the ‘governments don’t win by-elections’ excuse to fall back on only for FG winning in Galway