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How many of us think that unification is no longer a priority and don't really want unification ?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,235 ✭✭✭Tombo2001


    Personal view - I would like to see reunification not for any political reasons but because I think its daft that I driving along an hour up the road and then BOOM I somehow in a different country.

    It makes no conceptual sense to me in that regard.

    However, I'd have no interest in a unified Ireland that would alienate NI Protestants.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,235 ✭✭✭Tombo2001


    The thing about the Brexit mistake….

    If it was such a mistake, then why are they doubling down.

    Why arent they turning back to Europe, if it is such a massive mistake.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    They didn’t fully Brexit and have slowly pushed closer to the EU since.

    Listen to Allister Bryson howl at the moon trying to get WM to fully leave.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,633 ✭✭✭daithi7


    exactly, under Starmer'Starmer's labour government , the UK has moved progressively much closer to Europe again, with much enhanced cooperation on areas such as defence, security, immigration, education, food & environmental standards to name just some of the areas of enhanced cohesion. They're not quite ready for another referendum on the issue, but there is a widespread acknowledgement that it was a massive mistake to opt for Brexit. And even worse to try to opt for a hard Brexit. Dumb & dumber



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,610 ✭✭✭Kaybaykwah


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124479208#Comment_124479208

    Maybe the onus is on them to easily de-alienate themselves. Maybe turn them big drums into wading pools for the kiddies. It’s as easy as peeling an orange…



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,178 ✭✭✭purplepanda


    What about the low growth & investment border counties & Donegal, Tyrone, Derry, Fermanagh / west of N.I. plus the Belfast - Dublin coastal corridor that would really benefit in a United Ireland?

    The Greater Dublin region & "the south" (does this mean Wicklow?) will continue to flourish, perhaps not to the extent it has since the mid '90's but still with substantial growth. I would expect the South coast from Wexford / Waterford to Cork City region to also continue to flourish in jobs, economy & investment, plus Limerick to Galway regions.

    Just look at the economic blackspots, they are mostly around the border regions, get rid of the border & they would flourish.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    There's always a scaremonger and this idea or analysis has got it's own one:

    vote for a United Ireland and all the jobs and investment will go to Belfast



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭JohnDoe2025


    Belfast as a second pole of influence would pull investment from Cork, Galway and Limerick, those are the places south of Dublin I was mentioning.

    It would be better if we focussed on our existing ambitions - Project 2040 - and delivered on those before considering Belfast.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Better for who?

    Because the real constraint in Ireland today is not growth. It is capacity. Housing, infrastructure and public services are all under sustained pressure in the same place. As any supply chain professional would recognise, once a bottleneck is reached, adding more demand does not increase output, it creates congestion.

     The issue is not simply whether the State can absorb a fiscal gap, but whether the economy can continue to function with only one dominant centre of growth.

     They are sometimes called "system archetypes", a way of describing patterns that tend to repeat. What we are seeing in Dublin closely resembles what is known as the "limits to growth/success" archetype, where early success begins to generate the very constraints that slow it down.

    All the above are things that need to be addressed for the betterment of everyone on this island.
    The answer is not 'I'm alright Jack' while you bury heads in the sand and scaremonger about trying to re- balance and raise all boats as a result. .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭JohnDoe2025


    We have a plan to address these - Project 2040 - which envisages investment in Dublin to relieve congestion through public transport, and investment in Cork, Limerick and Galway to rebalance the regions.

    These must be prioritised, Northern Ireland can look after itself.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,960 ✭✭✭csirl


    We could spend 100s of billions over decades trying to persuade several hundred thousand people to relocate to Cork and still never succeed - we're not a communist country, we cant force people to move. Yet we already have a ready made city that is big enough to counter balance Dublin on the island i.e. Belfast.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭JohnDoe2025


    The people of Cork, Galway and Limerick are expecting this investment.

    The people of Dublin are expecting MetroLink and Dart Plus. The only way the ideas in the article work is if they are all cancelled and investment in Belfast takes place instead.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,960 ✭✭✭csirl


    I wonder what Cork people think about several hundred thousand extra people being added to their city. Certainly wouldnt be Cork any more!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The only way the ideas in the article work is if they are all cancelled and investment in Belfast takes place instead.

    More scaremongering.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,235 ✭✭✭Tombo2001


    why so is Labour doing so poorly in the polls, and Reform doing so well?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭JohnDoe2025


    https://www.npf.ie/wp-content/uploads/Project-Ireland-2040-NPF.pdf

    Project Ireland 2040 envisages 380,000 people between Limerick, Cork and Waterford in the Southern Region. Those projections are already underestimates.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭JohnDoe2025


    So will the EU or the US pay for the investment in Belfast instead?

    If it is to come from the UK or NI taxpayer, it should happen whether or not a united Ireland.

    Otherwise, it has to come from the Irish taxpayer, and other projects will have to be cancelled.

    Simply arithmetic.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,960 ✭✭✭csirl




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You come up with a new plan, that rebalances the whole island for the betterment of ALL the people here and you put that before the people just like 2040 was. 'I'm alright Jackism' won't work and never did. It's one of the primary reasons why the north went up in flames to ALL our costs in the first place.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,633 ✭✭✭daithi7


    The fact is that NI is projected to cost the equivalent of a banking crisis sum every 2 years for up to 20 years to reunite with the ROI. . Source ESRI. (See pps below). That's the cost of 10 x banking crises!!

    So the fact of the matter is that the ROI simply cannot afford to unify with the problematic, expensive millstone that is NI & it's state subsidised economy. It would sink the ROI economically for at least 2 generations, and send us back to doldrums like the 80s or 50s or quite possibly worse. That's a price most sensible people in the ROI would not be prepared to pay imho.

    P..s. I really fail to see how NI can't prosper as part of the UK, with one foot in the EU & one in the UK. It has this privilegeprivileged special status currently. This is it's best route to peace & prosperity & self sufficiency eventually hopefully. It needs about 20 years of this special status to even partly reinstate the place economically & socially relatively imho. Saddling the ROI with ththe expensive millstone that would be NI, where it would no longer enjoy this special status would be a massive own goal for both the ROI & NI. That would be simply stupid also. The whole thing is unfeasible.

    p.p.s.ESRI / IIEA Estimates (2024): Research from ESRI economists and the Institute of International and European Affairs estimated that unification could require up to \(\$€20\) billion a year for 20 years, necessitating significant tax increases or spending cuts in the South.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭JohnDoe2025


    I don't disagree with you, but any new plan uses the same amount of money, and if the article is correct, and this money should be focussed on investment in Belfast, that means no Metrolink, no Cork Luas, no Galway bypass. At best, they are postponed for a couple of decades until the investment in Belfast makes a return.

    That is what the article is saying if you read it fully and understand.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The ESRI study starts with trying to replace the maximum subvention and is thus a flawed study.
    The jury is still out on what the subvention actually is and you will find other opinions on what it actually is. You will find contrary opinions on the ESRI study too
    Here's one from an a quick google, there are more, from another ESRI economist too.

    McGuinness at ESRI criticises analysis of cost of united Ireland

    Latest polling also shows that the 'special status' of NI is not resulting as predicted and public confidence is waning.

    Testing The Temperature 14 | Participation for Protection (P4P) | Queen's University Belfast



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,633 ✭✭✭daithi7


    with all due respect @FrancieBrady , the only thing that survey could possibly show you is that the Windsor Agreement may not being perceived as being as beneficial as heretofore. That doesn't mean it actually isn’t, as it's only tracking voter perceptions.

    Yet, when you look at the relative outperformance of the NI economy relative to the rest of the UK since this Agreement was put in place, those actual economic & empirical financial figures show it as being quite beneficial to date.

    NI is now in a highly beneficial trading gateway position with a foot In both the UK & the EU, surely even the blooming Nordies can't mess that golden opportunity up!?

    p.s. and if they do , they'll be a millstone around any countries neck that has to try to govern there



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The best of luck trying to convince people to retain something when they see no benefit to it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,633 ✭✭✭daithi7


    Indeed, "there's none so queer as folk'.

    However, from just a cursory lookat your survey, it only showed a slight drop in perceived benefit , these attitudes can change back also.

    And imho, the absolute best way for NI to improve it's lot is to grasp this dual jurisdiction trade gateway opportunity to the max , and try to ween itself off state subsidies & other retrograde, self defeating handouts which over the medium term only promote silly practices, make a false, state supported economy, & build in lack of competitiveness & inefficiency at every layer in society. Not good, so this is NI's golden opportunity at better. So take it & get on with it!!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    It won’t though because NI is a failed state.

    We need to be prepared for that to change.

    There is no point having glossy 20something plans if part of the island decides it wants constitutional change.

    We need plans for that eventuality.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,633 ✭✭✭daithi7


    Why?

    Both population's electorates in the ROI & in NI both independently need to vote for constitutional change in their states. Currently I don't see the ROI electorate touching it with a bargepole tbh. And any move to change NIs status in the UK is still likely to flounder there also imho albeit for different reasons e.g. loyalty in NI, etc, etc, etc. It's simply not feasible.

    Post edited by daithi7 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    And both may vote for constitutional change despite what you might think.
    To have not planned for that is almost criminal irresponsibility.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,858 ✭✭✭standardg60


    No, it WAS a failed state. It remains to be seen whether the 'new' NI after the GFA realises it's unique opportunity to avail of the 'best of both worlds' in having access to both the UK and EU economically. Or to put it realistically, that having access to the EU market is actually the route to achieving a standalone entity.

    Whether the truism of being connected to Ireland rather than the UK is going to be to the benefit of all is going to happen organically, talk of planning of such is a hindrance as that just riles.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,217 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    The, 'new' NI post GFA is approaching 30 years....



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