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Convection /Thunderstorm discussion Spring /Summer 2026
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Next week will get interesting if we get the heat that is showing up on the models ( more so the ECM at this stage ), getting well into the 20's according to the ECM with a warm humid airflow up over us, a nice warm moisture rich plume moving in over warmed up land with very high Dp's ….mmmm….would be good for night time storms too perhaps if the parameters come together with all that instability….will be interesting to track. The Jet getting pushed well North of us.
Tomorrow a chance of isolated thunderstorms again. Cold uppers , occluded front, negatively tilted trough , not much shear but some available. Maybe some activity more so in areas like Sunday perhaps, favoring the NE the most I would think during peak heating in the afternoon.
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Tues initially big CAPE readings up to around 2000J/kg over mainly Munster with a very impressive KO index but will there be enough moisture in the atmosphere ? ECM looks to be picking up a weak trough like feature as Tues progresses, High Theta -E so big heat and moisture available and the thunderstorm index showing some storms breaking out in the afternoon/ early evening. Shear not great but the subtle areas of convergence will have an effect I would think. Maybe some activity around my own area of Tralee perhaps. Has the look of elevated storms. But still a bit away .
Around Tralee about 17.00, very impressive.
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Latest ECM has some scattered storms breaking out on Tuesday evening in the south, and some nighttime action for the north overnight Wednesday
With Cape values upward of 1000 j/kg and in some areas 2000, any storms that pop up could be severe. The lack of wind shear is continuing to be shown on the models which will limit the ability for storms to longer lasting. Still, it’s far more interesting than anything we’ve seen so far this year in terms of storms imo!
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Masses of CAPE available , very hot day into the high 20'S but very little shear and maybe not great moisture available it would appear. The main area of interest I reckon would be in the subtle convergence zones as highlighted below. Would be looking at mid to late afternoon at the peak heating.
Skew Chart below for near Limerick ( in my amateur and learning opinion ☺️) would suggest a fairly moist humid lower profile and dry air above, LI is good, Total Totals are good, CAPE very high, shear not great so would need the converging breeze to aid lift. Looks like plenty of instability if there was enough moisture in the atmosphere. Will see. What do others reckon.
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Yeah Arome showing some storms firing around that convergence zone (around the M7)
Looks sparse enough compared to the Uk where they look far more widespread, but they still should be quite severe where they do pop up here.
Some nighttime sparks for the east Wednesday night?
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Yeah maybe the SE late evening and up along the E and over Irish Sea overnight Weds into Thurs, looks like a trough might bring the all important moisture source and instability into all that pent up energy. What you reckon Ros4Sam24.
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A decent setup to my untrained eye, a moist environment but where will that trough end up and will it do the business. Lapse rates look pretty good, as do dew points.
Quite a sticky night. Dls lacking but lls bit bad and hopefully should help give lift. Although likely scattered without much structure
Hopefully won’t just be a fish storm and they’ll blow on into the midlands (IMBY).
Should get a better look at things tomorrow when Arome comes into view, but atm, Im surprised the models aren’t picking up on a few more storms. That’s my very novice take @Meteorite58!. Hopefully we’re due a sparky Summer ⚡️
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