Dublin Central By-election

His party are on 4% and look like getting trounced by almost all the opposition.

If FF want to be forever in coalition with FG, then sure, why would they worry about electoral performance. Maybe they have given up wanting to be a party that can stand on it's own feet.

Won't be a surprise.

Why would they be worried about that?
That would be political suicide to be purely idealistic and not get into government.

The irony is that instead of when one or other of FF or FG wanted to be the main party and could get the numbers, both parties have been weakened enough numbers wise to have to work together. And collectively the irony is it has made them more secure. They have even spun it as they are doing for the “good of the country” as there is no viable alternative.

There are no 2 or 2 and a half parties on the opposite side of the Dàil that can get the vote out necessary to get a coalition.Ideally one combination would be Labour -Soc Dem - SF . But that is not going to happen anytime soon.
The unstable “student union party” PBP and the consistently divisive and flaky Greens (on a good election cycle) would be needed to make up the numbers. Plus independents. That doesn’t sound like a stable government to me. It’s like trying to mix oil and water.

Just looking at the poll the vote appears to have split:
SF 21
Other Left 35
Right 24
Centre 17

Based solely on these figures my best guess is:
Boylan will top the poll
Ennis 2nd
Hutch or McAdam 3rd
Horner or Steenson 5th
ODea 7th
Stephens 8th
Ó Ceannabháin 9th
The ragtag at the end have 6% - I'd take a guess that a large chunk of this will go right. In the past many of these votes were 1 and done - the last elections seemed to dent that pattern a little.

The traditional parties will get little of this when they transfer - so I'd guess of the important figures left these transfers will probably consolodate Hutch's and Steensons positions pushing them ahead of their immediate contenders
Ó Ceannabháin might get enough to get above Stephens but I doubt it so I think Ó Ceannabháin will be first to be eliminated - based on GE transfers the Social Democrats, Labour and Greens will be the major beneficieries - with the SDs getting significantly more than Labour - poll 2nd preferences suggest that as well. Last time Ó Ceannabháin was eliminated MLMD was already elected so no SF Transfer figures are available. This could push O'Dea above Steenson, I don't think it would be enough to push Ennis above Boylan.

Next to go will be Stephens - I actually find that 4% figure believable - he seems to be getting only his local, council vote - his vote will almost certainly go to McAdam possibly pushing McAdam above Hutch. Bertie's machinations in this constituency over the decades have destroyed FFs chances of ever getting a seat here.

O'Dea, Horner and Steenson will be next to go - the order isn't particularly relevant. Steensons vote will go to Hutch -if he goes first the horses will be frightened as Hutch will probably end up in 3rd or possibly second. The 8% second preferences figure for Hutch is almost certainly all Steenson - the good news for the horses will be that Hutch's race will then be run but he could end up with about 22% of the vote. It looks most likely that O'Dea will go first - transferring to SDs mainly. Horner shows up as very transfer friendly but I don't think she'll be in the race long enough to see the benefit of that - I think that transfer friendliness is mainly from the left but there will be a chunk from the centre. Her only hope of getting any significant transfer benefit is to get above McAdam but I don't see that happening.

With these three gone I would think that we could see Ennis and Boylan very close at the top of the poll probably followed by Hutch - on the poll figures I don't see McAdam's vote getting above Hutch at this stage - in my original post I thought McAdam+Stephens+transfers would be greater than Hutch+Steenson+transfers - the poll doesn't suggest that. McAdams accumulated votes will almost certainly go to Ennis - I don't see Hutch or SF getting many. That will put Ennis way ahead of Boylan. It's possible that Hutch could catch Boylan but I think that's very unlikely.

We've no history of Hutch's transfers - my guess is that many will run into the sand and that those that remain will go primarily to Boylan. The question is whether that will be sufficient for her to catch Ennis. Personally I don't think it will be.

I haven't had a chance to run any numbers on this so I am taking the poll as gospel. It's a relatively large poll for a single constituency.

See your problem is and (I believe it is a SF problem , a Green Party problem, and a PBP problem) idealism over practical thinking. The “cause” whatever that maybe gets in the way of common sense.

FF and FG have no such ideological issues their governance is based on middle ground pragmatism. And pragmatism and cohesion are always going to defeat fractured idealism if a coalition is required.

SF, PBP and the Greens would have to make themselves “likeable” beyond their core vote. When is that going to happen?

I don't see standing on your own two feet as a political offering as a 'problem'.
I don't think power for power's sake is a sustainable offering either.
It's no surprise FF and FG's vote share is in decline. Death by a 1000 cuts is still death.

Just an observation on the polling, not going to take an interesting thread off topic.

The party and it's support seems completely blind as to what is happening. So be it I suppose. I thought grassroots FFers would react, but I've given up on that.

He's probably seen as a "man of the people" locally.

And a lot of it is sticking it to the “establishment” too if Hutch wasn’t a known gangland criminal he wouldn’t have that veneer that appeals to a certain cohort.

One of the underdiscussed parts of these by elections is just how awful Aontú is doing. In both cases they've been outflanked to their right. I think they'll be praying Noel Thomas doesn't win in Galway because that could easily make Independent Ireland eat their lunch and dinner

Mary Fitzpatrick who is a well-known Senator only got 7.2% in the last general election.

That the current less well-known candidate is on 4% in a poll with a 3% margin of error tells you nothing about Martin's future.

Going back further Mary Fitzpatrick got 10.3% in 2020 so the fall from then until this opinion poll is 6%. Looking at Sinn Fein, MLMD on her own got 35.7% in 2020. Six years later, in her own constituency, she can only get 21% to vote for Janice. Maybe she should be the one looking over her shoulder.

Could see it happening sadly, there's a lot of anger about.