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General British politics discussion thread

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,304 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    It's one of Labours safest seats, Burnham is relatively local (OK, he's Scouse but has represented Manchester so there's no element of parachuting), and having the (potential) PM as your MP is quite a cachet for any constituency. He also seems to be a well-regarded Mayor.

    I think he'll win it relatively comfortably.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,728 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    I wouldn't be so sure of that.

    The Farage payments thing may help Labour significantly.

    But aside from that, it will be one of the most prominent by-election in our lifetimes.

    Who will the Lib Dems, Tories, Greens want to win. Not to mention the influential media and even the likes of Musk who could get involved.

    Its effectively a one off election to make a guy PM, or to possibly bring down the government. Theres lots of people who will be interested in tipping the scales.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,006 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Watching an interview with Zack Polanski yesterday and he sounded open to the idea of Burnham becoming Labour leader. It would raise the prospect of a left wing or 'soft left' alliance at the next general election as a counterfoil to the mooted Reform UK - Badenoch led Conservatives coalition.

    Would be interesting to see too what sort of a cabinet Burnham would have: at the moment it seems totally dominated by right wing, Israel friendly Starmer types. Would he purge them and start bringing in more left leaning ministers like Rayner and Miliband to key positions?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,728 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Apparently he voted for the Iraq war and was a member of Labour Friends of Israel and has praised them in various ways.

    So I wouldn't necessarily be expecting any major policy changes in that area.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,422 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    There won't be any alliances. It makes no sense. FPTP is a zero sum game and progressive parties just cannibalise each other's votes.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,006 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    It would be interesting to hear Burnham outline his position on Israel and Netanyahu right now. If he was start coming out with the 'Israel are a trusted friend and ally and the only democracy in the Middle East' nonsense, it would be a disastrous blunder (and surely would push Polanski away).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,006 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Certainly not ahead of the general election, but that could rapidly change once the results are in. If no party is even close to an overall majority, then alliances would have to be formed - this already looks a strong possibility, a coalition government of some description.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,422 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    It isn't. The system here means that parties who win less than 25% of the vote need those votes to be specifically concentrated to achieve anything. Progressive votes tend to be clustered in cities. I think tactical voting will cost the smaller parties a bit too much.

    Even if we get a coalition or Confident & Supply, the resulting government will be quite unstable. Nobody expected the 2010 coalition to go the distance.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,527 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    About this by-election - the people in Makerfield might not take too kindly to being "used" by what could be seen as personal ambition on behalf of Burnham?

    AND the fact that there MP, Labours Josh Simons whom they elected has to an extent disregarded the electorate that voted him in in the first place by relinquishing the seat they gave him?

    Am I correct in saying there are 2 ex labour seats up for grabs now - the above and Burnhans seat in Manchester? Is that another by-election? And then a new lord mayor needs to be sorted?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,006 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    There is only one seat involved, the Makerfield one. Burnham would have to resign his role as Mayor of Greater Manchester if he becomes an MP. It's a bit of a risky move, but having said that, he actually grew up in Makerfield and is well known in the area.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,157 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Big sacrifice for Simons throwing away his political career

    What does he get beyond hopefully knowing the right man is leading Labour?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,527 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    Thanks @Strazdas - So IF Burnham wins this by-election in Makerfield he then resigns his role as mayor of Manchester. That office DOES NOT involve a seat? If so, is the major position then up for grabs for all comers, not just Labour?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,527 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    @Loafing Oaf Yip - and now that he has done this surely marks his card going forward? What electorate would trust him going forward, if at some stage he runs again?

    Could Burnham - IF he gets through and challenges and wins - offer Simons some sort of cushy position? ( even though he is not an MP anymore )



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,006 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Yes indeed, the Mayor of Manchester role is completely separate to the parliamentary system - there is a vote by the public every four years. So if Burnham stands aside, a thing called a 'mayoral by-election' would need to be held and would be open to all types of candidates.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,527 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    Thanks again @Strazdas - Could one argue that labour could lose the Mayor of Manchester position which in of itself, though not an MP position would still be considered the loss of a useful position of power that labour had.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,157 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Limit to what he can get seeing as he won't be an MP. What about ambassador to somewhere? Although on second thoughts…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,304 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    Yes. Not giving up the Manchester Mayoralty was the 'official' reason why Labour HQ refused to allow Burnham be the candidate for the most recent by-election in Denton.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,527 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    And what is / was Burnhams position on Brexit?

    Would he be like Starmer - Move UK closer to EU, possibly join customs Union and/or single market???



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,527 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    An 81 year old Makerfield resident on James O Brien LBC there .. voted labour all her life as did her family going well back. Completely distraught - she feels all this Burnham stuff is DISLOYALTY and is very angry. She is of that view - "wind your neck in all challengers". And is also of the view - due to this DISLOYALTY, that REFORM will win this by-election in Makerfield



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,527 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    FT Breaking:

    Breaking: Wes Streeting has thrown his support behind Andy Burnham’s campaign for a seat in parliament that could offer him a route to toppling Keir Starmer, just a day after he stopped short of launching his own expected challenge to the prime minister.

    So does that mean streeting has walked away from being an MP and now will not challenge? OR can someone who is challenging themselves still back another challenger?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,422 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I think if Burnham is excluded, it tarnishes the contest given his popularity. If Streeting wins a contest without Burnham, he knows he'll always be compared to him, fairly or unfairly.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,834 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    I bet she is lying. Probably made the jump from Labour a few years ago.

    I'm always suspicious of this people who are so vitriolic against a party they claim to have only just voted for despite seeing to have very different views to that party.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,728 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    I see Farage is saying now the 5M he got was s reward for campaigning for Brexit for 27 years.

    That should end him and his party if Labour (in particular) were able to handle the story correctly.

    There's no longer a mention of present/future security, it's most definitely a political donation if it was tied to Brexit and theres talk of an additional million paid to him and Johnson at the 2019 election where Reform (or whoever they were) stood down candidates. Given the furor he made about gifts to Labour and Rayners tax, this should bury him.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,487 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    I'm not sure what you're going on about here. There is no general election in the offing, and Labour has an enormous parliamentary majority.

    On top of which there is very little honour or loyalty in inter-party politics, and eaten bread is quickly forgotten. The Greens will choose to run a serious campaign or not depending on whether they would prefer Burnham or Streeting as PM. In their place I'd want Streeting to lead Labour as I feel he is precisely the sort of person who will ensure Labour's quicker demise.

    As for myself I would be very dubious about Labour being a certainty to win this seat - they are on the way out, and Burnham seems to be cut from much the same mould as the rest of the party's upper echelons, i.e. Blairite rightwing zionists. Labour wouldn't have chosen him to be mayor of the second most populous local authority in Britain if he was a boat-rocker.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,487 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    Having done a quick check on Simons' background, it seems that he's on the right of the party, worked for some fairly dodgy organisations with no interest in the working man or woman. Reading between the lines he is exactly the sort of person that Nathanyahoo would like.

    If a person like this gives up his seat in parliament in an act of apparent self-abnegation, you can be sure that the person he is doing it for is cut from a similar mould (and he will have received a series of promises about his future too). As a result, I wouldn't expect Burnham to do anything different from Streeting or Stormer. Labour is being sold a turd here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,487 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    Also, the loss of their Empah. They lost their trade monopoly with a very large segment of the world when that happened. Their ship-builders went straight down the tubes. East Belfast has never recovered, and Britain's port cities are in the same boat. Ditto Manchester's cotton industry, along with Britain's coal and steel industries. Thatcher just put the caidhp bháis on it all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,487 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    That referendum was held over a decade ago & Scotland voted to stay in the UK in order to stay in the EU. How did that work out?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,006 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    No, the next general election is not until 2029 - but presumably Burnham being brought in now would totally be with an eye on attempting to win that election and not so much what is happening right now in May 2026. Polanski made it quite clear yesterday he would want nothing to do with Streeting, but was much more diplomatic when discussing Burnham.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,487 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    That's fair enough in as far as it goes, but it's sound politics for Polanski to be polite about Burnham, as he's looking to capture his voters rather than antagonise them!



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  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 4,697 Mod ✭✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    Owen Jones reporting on new YouGov poll for Persuasion UK.

    It found 33% of 2024 Labour voters voted for them again in the local elections. 22% defected to the Greens and just 7% flipped to Reform UK.

    38% of 2024 Tory voters stated with them. 33% defeated to Reform.



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