A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

The difference is China's a producer whereas the USA is a consumer. Although.... oil🛢️

that’s an understatement they are literally blackmailing us now

Interestingly I read that Thatcher had been a massive supporter of investing in micro chips, even gave generous subsidies to companies to set up in Sunderland, but the minute she was gone the fabrication plant there was sold off, with Taiwan being the main buyer of all the chip fabrication equipment.

Small fiddly electrical items weren't impressing northern voters who expected industrial jobs to be oily and messy, and involve massive wrenches to make big industrial things, so now they make the Nissan Duke. Meanwhile TSCM made Taiwan a global leader in semi conductors.

BTW, when I lived in north England it was a common refrain about reopening the mines and running on steam again. It's like they have zero memory of soot.

I don't know if there could have been a better way to wind down coal mining, many towns that were centuries old existed only for it.

It was the primary reason the Brits went in hard to Iran as they needed its oil to modernise its navy which had been mostly coal driven.

https://www.ft.com/content/aa8971d8-5240-4c11-9c16-7da75e212982

Yoshihide Kimura, chief executive of Toyama-based contractor Tomiso, said that emails and faxes poured in last month notifying him of “extraordinary” increases. PVC prices, for example, jumped as much as 70 per cent, he said.

@greenfield21

Some would say 2008 was the zenith of that model, and you can really see how politics in the UK and USA took a more pessimistic tone since.

The wealthy of china are careful not to flaunt it, lest they be reminded that their individual success is supported by the structural wealth of the nation.

A lot of European nations have that structural wealth, a lot of European industry is not publicly traded so will never be comparable to the paper mountains of Wall Street.

We in Ireland have certainly gobbled up the cult of paper wealth with so much tied up in property, but at least that's something tangible after a debt bust.

Definitely not the zenith, after 2008 governments doubled down on it with QE, zero rates, and even more debt so not sure how you can say this.

It wasn't Nigel farage who built the state they can't afford. The current system was all part of globalisation and the only way forward according to everyone. The bill for all their mistakes will eventually come due and of course politicans like Farage will capitalise on it. The worry for the bond market now appears to be we get even someone further to the left and increases spending even more. I do wonder on these threads am I living in an alternative universe and how people can't see the state of the UK et al. They really got rich of subsidized rates/credit and borrowed all they could and spent all that on money property, financial engineering and asset prices. They didn't build anything of value with it and pissed it all away. Now is that system breaking, probably not, but who knows what comes next.

It was always expensive but 2022 was the kicker for me; places were raising prices across the board to compensate themselves for covid demand hits and then we had the crazy inflation from 2023 onwards. I would have needed to see my salary increase 25-30% the last 4 years just to feel like I was doing the same as 2021 or earlier). However, when places weren’t giving meaningful salary increases after 2021 and the mood on salary increases soured in 2022 I said, forget that I’m outta here and have no intention of going back.

It’s interesting to hear someone remark today that they feel it’s getting more expensive!

Real inflation has been 40-50% since 2019 and by real inflation I mean the essential expenses in daily life and anyone telling you otherwise is lying to you. People are probably 20% worse off since 2019 and notice it in the struggle to save as much money as before.

For instance, let’s look at the most important and largest sources of expenditure and how they have increased since 2019 in Ireland;

Fuel; 40-50%

Rent; 50%

House prices; 50%

Groceries; 40-50%

In many ways, inflation is worse than a recession and if a recession means the wealth transfer to the richest (the asset owners) reduces in velocity, I think if I was a right-thinking normal person I would be welcoming the antidote to rampant inflation. If your wage has only increased 50% since 2019, you have not progressed in your career.

Read the below on the Irish examiner. It is not good reading. Even a small downturn would have big consequences on people.

Quarter of Irish workers could only cope financially for a month if their income stopped, survey finds

'Income can be interrupted for many reasons, including illness, injury, or redundancy. But setting money aside in savings can be challenging once mortgage or rent payments, childcare, insurance and everyday household costs have been covered.'

Thu, 18 Jun, 2026 - 00:05Sean Murray

A quarter of people in Ireland in their 30s and 40s would not be able to cope financially for more than a month if their regular income stopped tomorrow, a new survey has found.

The survey found that, on average, Irish people believed they would be financially stable for about five-and-a-half months if their income was to come to a halt.

But 20% overall said they could only maintain their standard of living for less than a month if their income dried up.

“While some households appear to have a reasonable financial buffer in place, the findings highlight how vulnerable many others could be if their income were to stop suddenly,” said Barry McCutcheon of Royal London Ireland, which carried out the survey.

“Income can be interrupted for many reasons, including illness, injury, or redundancy. But setting money aside in savings can be challenging once mortgage or rent payments, childcare, insurance and everyday household costs have been covered.” 

Men believed they could maintain their standard of living for six months on average, compared to five months for women.

People aged 55 and over were more likely to say they would cope for longer, at seven months on average, with those aged 25-34 saying they could maintain their standard of living for just four months.

The survey found Dubliners reporting themselves to be the most financially resilient, with more than one in five (22%) saying they could financially survive for over a year without income, followed by those living in Ulster (18%).

“While urban living can be more expensive, access to larger employment markets, stronger transport links, and a wider range of services may help some households feel better placed to manage financial shocks, whereas those in more rural areas may face added costs and fewer options,” Mr McCutcheon added.

Is that true though. The first group you mention would be 50 plus and the second group in their twenties.That age gap would account for most of the disparity.

For working-age households that rent or are trying to buy a home, the costs that matter most have risen substantially faster than earnings since 2019. As a result, many such households experience a meaningful decline in affordability despite wage growth. It really is a two-tiered society and it isn’t just the often-used term of the “homeless” that alone make up the second tier. This is already playing out in our politics but I think Ireland could start to see proper leftie governments sooner rather than later because of the impotence in successive centrists governments to protect non-home owners as well as home owners.

Back in reality land house prices are not consumer inflation for the significant chunk of house owners in this country. Rent inflation doesn't apply to everyone. Inflation does not equal a basket of four items.

House prices have jumped dramatically, food prices have exploded, fuel is more expensive, a portion of the population can certainly be considered worse off (renters, first time buyers) but there's no need to exaggerate it with narrative driven guesstimates

Official inflation in Ireland from 2019, low twenties. Median earnings (to 2024) rose cica 21% or 22%. Average hourly rates went up approx. 30% to 40% in that period (sources NERI using Eurostat and CSO)