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General British politics discussion thread

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,681 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    I was obviously focussing on the Scottish parliamentary election today but just had a look at the council results in England so far and I am surprised at the Greens performance given the assertions that they did poorly

    image.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,487 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    While this is true, there is a very significant English minority in Wales, probably even a majority locally in several areas. Then there would be those people with one English parent and would feel a strong enough attachment to England to vote for an English party, party if they were of the r-wing persuasion. Also a British identity has been drummed into them from birth, which colours many people's views.

    The same would be true of Scotland, although probably to a lesser extent.

    Then there are all those people who do well out of the status quo, their equivalent of what would have been called Castle Catholics in Ireland a century or so ago.

    Prior to independence, the upper classes in Ireland were mostly Protestant, and were well integrated into British society while outside of Ulster most of the rest of us were not, which created a barrier (not total though) to intermarriage. Such a barrier has not existed, or at least not to the same extent, between Scottish or Welsh people and the English, so there was greater permeability between the nationalities where they came together socially. Today this religious barrier is almost completely gone of course except for people with a strong religious identity - but there is still a hangover from the past in the form of people whose parents were affected by it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,681 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Best comment today below but some will say it is only seats that matter under the current system



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,230 ✭✭✭Randycove


    I think you have over complicated this. The Welsh and Scots voted for reform for the same reason the English did, they are fed up with the status quo and wanted change.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,991 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Should have happened years ago. Lb then with others would almost always govern as the major party in a coalition. No strategic thinking.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,785 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    I don't get it. Did brits look over across the water at the dictatorship ruled by Trump and think "I want some of that" or what happened them?



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,942 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Labour would rather have occasional untrammelled power. The system is also centuries old, it is not a simple thing to get everyone on board with so drastically changing it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,986 ✭✭✭yagan


    I was thinking of this recently. They introduced STV PR for the Sligo by-election of 1919 after the success of the Irish independence parties in the 1918 UK election.

    I could see the Tories supporting Labour to dilute the vote of the ascendant parities. They'll end up with more coalition governments, but at least they'd no longer have to adopt extreme positions as central policy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,065 ✭✭✭ujjjjjjjjj


    Think it was a very bad election for the SNP, significant drop in their vote share and despite a perfect storm for them to prosper in with a collapsing Labour vote and Reform splitting the unionist vote and allowing seats to go to the SNP which they would have lost in years gone by with that vote share, they have ended up with fewer seats. Swinney also looks daft as he was claiming he could get an overall majority and push for Indy Ref 2 and has fallen way short, in fact no where close to his target despite the ideal conditions. It will now just be another Scottish parliament of the SNP doing what they have always done which is give out freebies to the benefits brigade and moan about Westminster every time something goes wrong and play the victim card. They have been at it for years and same old.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,422 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Well, yes but there was a referendum on changing to the Alternative Vote. People didn't understand the proposition and only 47% bothered casting ballots. AV is not PR but the Lib Dems spent all of their political capital on getting that referendum from the Tories and they were obliterated afterwards.

    It helps that Farage is a much less uncouth figure than Donald Trump so that makes voting for him much easier. This is the country that whined about austerity before returning David Cameron with a majority. It voted for Brexit and googled what the EU was the day after the referendum. I hate to just dismiss millions of people as stupid but it's very hard to come up with a better explanation.

    Yep. We learned that in 2011. It's too deeply embedded and the people who can change it are heavily incentivised to stick with the status quo. This leads to the problem of the progressive vote cannibalising itself which both helps and hinders Labour.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,942 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I lived in (and voted in!) the UK during that AV referendum. The campaign was a farce and boiled down to "you're all too stupid to understand this". Mind you, it turns out they might have been correct.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,831 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    PR and alternative vote are for shifty foreign types.

    It's un-British just like a simplified measuring system and left side driving.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,681 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    The incumbent governing party for 19 years and they still get the vast majority of seats and you think they had a very bad election?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,422 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I'd say Cameron's Tories only agreed to it for that reason. It may have taught him that the press would just back him so he allowed other referendums for very silly things.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,065 ✭✭✭ujjjjjjjjj


    Yes very poor performance considering the total collapse in the Labour vote and the Reform dynamic splitting the Unionist Vote. The SNP seem to have two groups who vote for them, a large number disgruntled people who just hate the Union for the sake of it and it gives them something to moan about and then a chunk of the benefits brigade who they constantly pander to giving away freebies. The SNP seem to figured out that by appealing to those two groups you can stay in power but constantly have the excuse of blaming the union and Westminster for all significant problems and ultimately be accountable for nothing. They also constantly get involved in discussions politically which they have no control over for example International affairs which are reserved powers so wasting time talking about Iran or Israel or something else just deflects from failures be it the ferries, roads or NHS which they actually have control over. It's classic whataboutery. I do quite a bit of business in Scotland and the middle Scottish business community and people I work with just laugh about the SNP and people who vote for them. Was talking to a very nice Scot recently who is convinced the SNP love the current setup as it effectively means a never ending gravy train for them all and every time a thing goes wrong they just blame the union. If the SNP were serious about independence they should be coming up with a creditable plan for building a Scottish state without Union handouts and appealing to the middle class working Scots who in many cases currently view them as a grievance party buying votes with handouts to the benefits brigade.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,942 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Very bad is overegging it but it is their lowest vote share in 20 years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,065 ✭✭✭ujjjjjjjjj


    Yes and in conditions that absolutely were ideal for them to prosper in.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,527 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    Would not surprise me if the men in grey suits visit Starmer soon? Could it be as early as next week? Starmer due to make a big address monday apparently

    Here are all the various UK politcal odds at Paddy power - https://www.paddypower.com/politics?tab=uk



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,527 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    And labour / Starmer have had there chance to take the UK back into Europe. Should have been far more forthright about this and that it is happening hands down. Should have happened already - I think now, the chance is lost. Not sure it would be of any benefit to EU now, with the absolute unknown ( like Farage as PM ) in the next General election. And it hands him another "policy" to add - Brexit 2, he would love that. Or worse still - Farage keeps UK in EU and attacks it from the inside with a load of Reform MEPS



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,681 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,681 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Labour did not really collapse since the last election, their expectations were a lot higher this time which did not happen. If anything, the Tory vote collapsed and that mainly went to Reform. Reform did split the vote in some areas and allowed the SNP to come through the middle.

    What freebies would you propose stopping?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,304 ✭✭✭✭zell12


    Has there been any reaction from the North government to these developments?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,065 ✭✭✭ujjjjjjjjj


    I don't have all the figures to hand for years of elections but they are 9.5% down on the constituency vote and 13.5% down on the regional vote compared to 2021. Considering the huge move away from Labour and split Unionist Vote due to the rise of Reform I am not sure how anyone in the SNP can consider this election a success apart from guaranteeing that they go back into well paid jobs in Holyrood and continue their age old blame everything on Westminster anytime anything goes wrong for the next 5 years. It's a bad result for Scotland as it basically means no change to the what has been going on in recent years and the SNP are economically illiterate and entirely dependent on Union handouts to keep things ticking over and then have the nerve to criticise the very hand that feeds them. But I suppose respect has to go to them for figuring a way to ensure a never ending gravy train for themselves by using a simple combination of buying votes from disgruntled anti-union Scots and poor communities who are largely dependant on handouts and have digested the story from the SNP about all the ills in Scotland being due to the union. Reality is the poverty in many Scottish communities is entirely due to economic failings from the SNP who have done nothing to grow the Scottish economy and are happy to foster a dependency culture and mix it in with a nasty side of 'Braveheart' nationalism to keep those who fall for it frothing at the mouth.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,065 ✭✭✭ujjjjjjjjj


    Scotland is running a massive budget deficit and entirely dependent on union handouts. If they can't actually come up with economic policies to grow the economy then all freebies need reviewing. Problem is now the SNP have been at this for so long, free prescriptions, free eyetests, free buses for students, free university fees, free school lunches, free sanitary products, baby boxes, council tax subsidies, free school taxi services etc etc etc I could go but they have convinced a chunk of the Scottish population that the magic money tree can provide everything and anything. Looks don't get me wrong it's great to get free this and that 'free' in Scotland but it isn't affordable and only works with union handouts. Personally love the sound of many of these freebies but if Scotland became independent it would only be a short matter of time before it would all come crashing down without huge economic growth and the SNP don't seem to have any focus on that at all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,681 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    I am referring to the claim from podge that it is the lowest vote share since 2006.

    Largest number of pro-independence seats at 73

    image.png

    What 'handouts' or 'freebies' are you proposing the Scottish parliament should stop?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,422 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Hard disagree. If he had before 2024, it'd have given a huge boost to Reform. If he'd done so after, it'd just be undone by Farage who'd get the same boost in 2029. Going in and out in 5 years would make this country even more of a farce than it already is and that's assuming that a rejoin referendum would have carried.

    People generally accept that Brexit was a failure and that closer alignment with Brussels is a good thing, particularly when it results in tangible effects such as shorter queues in airports. Full EU membership remains controversial.

    I found this well worth reading:

    https://iandunt.substack.com/p/rejoin-is-coming-8aa

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,527 ✭✭✭aidanodr




  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,942 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The metric of vote share…

    2026

    2021

    2016

    2011

    2007

    Constituency

    38.2%

    47.7%

    46.5%

    45.4%

    32.9%

    Regional

    27.2%

    40.3%

    41.7%

    44%

    31%



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,681 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Scotland is not independent and cannot run a massive budget deficit. It is claimed Scotland within the UK is running a massive budget deficit. The Scottish parliament gets a block grant from the UK parliament and has very little means of deviating from that (small borrowing powers and small tax powers).

    So your pitch to the voters in Scotland is to stop all those 'freebies' in your post including the etc etc?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,065 ✭✭✭ujjjjjjjjj


    Would tend to disagree here - Labour's heartland voters voted quite heavily to leave and they have been terrified to annoy this group. Many now have moved to reform and it's destroyed Labour in these elections anyway. I think the middle class luvies who are all still disgruntled about the oiks voting for Brexit as it means their cockapoos now need more paperwork to go to the south of France will continue to claim that Brexit has been a disaster but Reform who are clearly not a pro EU party are doing exceptionally well, love them or hate them. Personally not a fan of Farage BTW. Bear in mind our Irish view of Brexit was nothing but negative so it's easy to scoff but purely from a voting point of view if Brexit was viewed so negatively in the UK then Reform's rise just doesn't make any sense.



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