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How many of us think that unification is no longer a priority and don't really want unification ?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,546 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    The border of the UK has not chaged in 100 years. The GFA meant we gave up the constitutional claim on the N. Irish part of the UK. Point is, Cameron was the eejit who brought in Brexit. No Prime Minister or SoS is going to open the can of worms than would be 100 times worse than Brexit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,546 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    Different currencies do not help - I remember when it was easier to do business on the island when the Irish pound was tied to Sterling / the same value. It was our government who broke the tie to sterling, back in 1979 I think it was.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,808 ✭✭✭hometruths


    This is pretty absurd discussion, because it's totally illogical for Unionists to challenge a decision to hold a border poll on the grounds that it was unlikely to pass.

    If it was genuinely unlikely to pass they wouldn't be challenging it! the very fact that they would be spending time and money in the court s trying to block the vote from being held rather supports the SoS's opinion and if a poll was called, it would be a brave judge who overturned the decision on the grounds that it would be unlikely to pass.

    IIn those unlikely circumstances there is a pretty obvious solution to see whose opinion is correct. A judge would throw the case out and rightly so.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,546 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    I would say the majority would not want a poll because it would be so divisive.

    How about a poll on whither to have a poll.

    If there was no poll for another generation it would be ok : it would be very divisive to have a poll every 7 years. The minimum should have been set at 30 or 40 years. Then it would be more likely to have a poll now.

    The fact that Republicans dismissed - with violence - the results of the 1973 poll does not help either : if a minority has a right to act outside the law then, it would have a right to act outside the law now if it did not like the results of a new poll.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Yes, totally correct.

    What the poster and Unionists are doing is revealing their abject fear that it would pass. They’ll try every trick in the book - Judicial Review - Super Majorities -Non Binding Referendums- Re-Partition etc etc



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,071 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    A poll right now would be dumb, there is no clear majority who would vote for it (so not passing the GFA terms) and it would mean no second poll for a long time. Everyone, including SF, seem to be happy with the status quo for now and will be watching for demographic changes over the next decade or so (or another Brexit type event like Reform getting into power).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,546 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    Cannot be a border poll without the financial implications for everyone being set out. There has to be a plan first. Even Sinn Fein do not have a plan for a U.I., too cowardly some would say.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Red letter day - for the first time in history Wales, Scotland and NI will have nationalist parties in the majority position.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,196 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    There's a big can of worms to open up if Unification is mooted any time soon. Personally I think there's no added value at the moment of rattling any cage. Things are peaceful and relatively prosperous in Ireland, maybe not so much in NI, but they do have the EU benefit which the rest of Britain doesn't have.

    Things are jogging along fine at the moment and I really don't think that Unification is very high on many people's agenda apart from those politically involved in supporting a Border Poll. It feels to me that we are being railroaded into something that is not necessarily beneficial at the moment. Why bring all the debate, hate, polarisation etc. into discourse right now, I mean who actually wants that. We have enough to deal with.

    I think it will take its own course and when enough people are interested enough and feel it is socially and economically beneficial, it will happen organically. That is not the case right now.

    Just what I think. Others will disagree - which is a microcosm of what will happen if anything is suggested unification wise any time soon.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,071 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    I don't think they'll ever have all the financials figured out beforehand, it's just too theoretical and open to abuse by either side (Britain will pay, Ireland will pay, britain will pay for relocations), there just needs to be broad agreements on big ticket items (currency, pensions, social welfare, health, education) and a timeline for the unification to happen (e.g. over the course of this many years, so everyone has a chance to get everything lined up).

    Right now both sides (SF and Unionists) are playing stupid with each other and putting everyone outside of them off the process entirely.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Disagree all you want with the policies of SF, SDLP, UUP, Alliance PBP etc but there is only one party denying rights, seeking the return of their veto and blocking the full working of the GFA - the DUP.

    They are in effect driving the UI campaign. Only last night the SDLP sold out a New Ireland event in Co. Down and are telling Dublin they are fed up waiting on them to begin planning.

    Pressure is on and it's not just coming from SF.

    You are correct on the financials - all that can be expected is agreement on what can be agreed. After that it is as the future is now financially - speculative,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 41,968 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    The scenario on this island is not comparable to the partition of Germany at all. Diehard communists in the East didn't want unification, but in a united Ireland scenario we could have 49% of voters in the six counties voting against unification but having it imposed on them nonetheless. Many would accept it but the history of NI has shown that it doesn't take many disgruntled people to cause mayhem, death and destruction.

    There's also the consideration that NI would be a huge economic drag on the rest of Ireland, it currently has a much larger country keeping it just about afloat economically.

    Incidentally I'm ten years older than you, I spent the summer of 1989 working in Munich at the end of my first year in college. At one point friends of friends were going to East Berlin on a weekend trip, I was interested but couldn't afford it, but was quite sure I'd have the chance to go again in a few years… Didn't have much of a handle on what was going on that summer as the only English radio station we could get was US Armed Forces Radio which was more concerned about a cat getting stuck up a tree in Oklahoma than anything happening outside the US.

    The collapse of the DDR reminds me of Hemingway's quote about bankruptcy, gradually and then suddenly. The protests had been growing all summer, West German TV was reporting it but it seems the rest of us were not paying attention. Countries like Hungary were opening borders. The signs were there but the real question was whether the DDR regime was willing to shoot its own citizens en masse or not, it turned out not.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,005 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    deleted

    I'm very highly educated. I know words, i have the best words, nobody has better words then me.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 386 ✭✭CardF


    no hurry for formal unification.

    post 90's its just lines on paper anyway.

    this is our bit it says it on the map and in books. does it? so what.


    maybe if we couldnt go there, or live there, if there was a border, if native irish people were being mistreated like the 70s, or if profits were being made on contested land, i might care.

    GB is funding the place so we dont have to, the communities are balanced and want to get on without the bs. residents can be what they themselves want to be, as such in reality its kind of an uncertain place. On paper UK rules it as a british territory. In reality thats only somewhat true.

    they never use the cycle lane.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The signs were there 

    We have a tragic habit of missing the 'signs' coming from the north. 50 years of a one party sectarian and bigoted state and we were suprised it went up in flames - nothing done to prevent it and caught flatfooted when it erupted.

    If 3 of the UK's parts giving majorities to independence seeking parties isn't a warning sign the prospect of Farage in power should be.

    We need to plan. It's almost criminally irresponsible not to.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,960 ✭✭✭csirl


    There's a very good chance we'll see a Scottish independence vote within the next 5 years. With Scotland applying to join the EU immediately after independence.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,953 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    There absolutely is not a very good chance of it because who would give it to them and why?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,546 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    If they were independent they would be applying to join NATO ( like sweden and Finland were in an awful hurry to in the past couple of years) and the IMF. What a basket case the these islands would be then : 4 health systems, 4 sets of embassies abroad, no economies of scale for anything.

    Only way Scotland could half succeed would be is by being a world leading tax haven for the likes of Apple. But that ship has sailed.

    We could not ALL be a tax haven. And if Scotland copied our strategy, or even N. Ireland, it would be to our detriment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Your absolutism about these things is quite bizarre tbh given what we have seen in the last 15-20 years in the UK alone.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,953 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    It is not bizarre. The previous referendum was the result of years of work and came under a very stable coalition government - the largest party of which stood to gain immensely electorally if independence did go ahead.

    Unless you have been paying absolutely zero attention to what is going on, you will know full well that the current chaotic Labour govt have absolutely no time for that kind of thing at the moment. The only chance of an indy ref being prepared for is if somehow the Greens get into power in 3 years and that would only be the beginning of the process. The chances of an indy ref in the next 5 years is zero.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    If recent history tells us anything, what Westminster says is frequently NOT what it does. Ask any Unionist.

    Nobody not you or I can be as absolute as you are being tbh.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,953 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Westminster hasn't said anything. The topic hasn't even come up.

    I am saying there is zero chance Labour will touch it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 8,544 ✭✭✭facehugger99


    What’s even more amusing are the lads who think a BP will be held with a slim majority in favour of joining the ROI.

    Anyone who thinks we’d be taking on the basket case of NI with 49% opposition are delusional.

    The reality is there’d need to be an overwhelming majority in favour for it to even be worth considering from our perspective.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The Labour PM addressed the issue in 2025.

    Currently the position is No to a ref, but events dear boy, can easily change that as we have seen in the last 15-20 yrs.

    Is UK politics more or less chaotic? My opinion would be the centre is under severe pressure in the Union, can it hold?
    And why is the Irish Government sitting idly by watching it happen?



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,953 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    And why is the Irish Government sitting idly by watching it happen?

    Cause it is none of our business.

    And yes, things can change. Unless you think the change is going to be things miraculously getting more stable then no one is going to touch independence refs. The only chance for one is the Scottish unilaterally having one - something the Supreme Court have already said would be illegal. The last referendum was basically a 6 year process, enabled by a strong and stable government in London.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Yes, no doubt the inclination will be to resist but that is no absolute guarantee, which is what you are proclaiming.

    The Irish government are sitting idly by with no plan ready. That is almost criminally irresponsible given what we all watched with Brexit.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,953 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    You mean the Brexit that was handled excellently by the Irish government?

    I have no earthly idea what type of plan you think they should have. Though I assume it once more goes back to pushing for a BP despite a tiny percentage of people in Ireland caring.

    And if the British govt are inclined to resist there will be no poll or independence ref as it is solely in their power. We are not even close to the level of support for, or the level of chaotic disfunction that would enable, unilateral independence declarations.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I can only imagine what would happen if the terms of the GFA were changed to demand a super majority.

    Even a Westminster parliament led by a loon like Johnson threw that idea from Paisley jun out where it belongs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    They also resisted a sea border and then they couldn’t anymore and had to place it themselves.
    And we were told here on boards that would never happen either.



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,953 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Because they were essentially forced to by the EU…

    It is not remotely similar to independence refs. No one has the power to do anything to force their hands.



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