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Nuclear - future for Ireland?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    In fairness, they were in this path before feb 22..

    They're doing huge military equipment tie ups with the koreans too , and manufacturering a lot of the Korean stuff in poland ..

    The US stuff was more likely about tieing the US in as a defence partner , in Nato ..

    Now that the US is pulling away from NATO , who knows .. could be trying to unilaterally keep on the US good side .. ?

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Its expected the strike price will be around 118euro per mwh , for 40 years . that was late 2025 ,

    But i dont know where the Polish government 14 billion fits with that .. theyre taking equity in the project .

    But do they paid back after the US , at the same time, in proportion to equity, and how much that 14 billion euro cost poland over the 40 years contract -

    As in if i get a mortgage to build a house , say it costs 300 grand to build - over the lifetime of the 30 year morgage I'm likely to pay around 600 grand -.but it still beats renting..

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 10,047 ✭✭✭✭SeanW


    With specific regard to your first graphic:

    1. The figure of 200-something g/kwh is a bit suspicious, most times I look up ElectricityMap its in the 300-500 range.
    2. You've just committed the "Post hoc, Ergo propter hoc" fallacy. After this, therefore because of this.

    Except as with all such invocations of this fallacious reasoning; not so fast.

    Back in 1990 we had a fuel mix - there was some coal, some peat, some oil, some gas, and likely some imports or trade. Now, we predominantly rely on gas, there's no more peat burning (thank goodness), no more coal, and very little oil.

    It is generally understood that gas has significantly lower emissions, about half I think, vs these other sources we formerly used. However, one of the drawbacks is that - not just Ireland but most of Europe - has to import gas, and that creates a serious energy security risk - which I note that you have not been keen to address. I wonder why? 🙄

    https://u24.gov.ua/
    Join NAFO today:

    Help us in helping Ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    The - no production of electricity - no payment, is no different that any other CFD be it nuclear, renewables or any other source.

    Along with the Polish government putting up €15 Bn. two U.S. institutions, that appear to be connected to the U.S. government, are funding the remaining 60% at a very favorable interest rate, with the rest spread around international agencies and banks. It does look as if the U.S. are determined that this project works and gets Westinghouse back into the nuclear game as a serious competitor. We could do a lot worse than get in there before a queue forms.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,158 ✭✭✭323


    East coast, fair enough. But now with Koreans FFS.

    No matter how much money is thrown at Offshore Wind, South, West, North Coast isn't ever going to work. Suspect this nuclear about face is clear indication they've copped on and realised their 37-50GW offshore wind was a fantast, just a pity it wasn't before they invited in all the data centres.

    Not totally inexperienced in the hydrocarbon end, sure doesn't Africa's biggest independent oil producer, the continent's leading independent oil company, originally hail from Carlow. Tullow as their name says, but guessing all those guys have retired by now.

    “Follow the trend lines, not the headlines,”



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,158 ✭✭✭323


    Well, until just a few years ago gas was to be the "transition fuel" through to 2050/2060 until something else was developed. Then the Greens took over Europe and that went out the window.

    While waiting for nuclear:

    Develop Barryroe! 2012 appraisal well flowed 3.5K/day Barrels Oil AND nearly 300 million standard cubic feet good Gas per day, For perspective the completed wells at Corrib produced 260 at start-up. Be a easy and relatively inexpensively tie-back to the existing Kinsale pipeline infrastructure still in place just 3KM's away.

    Then go up to Corrib and open up, Corrib North, Corrib South, Inishkea and Inishkea West prospects, tie-back to the existing Manifold & pipeline infrastructure.

    Corrib is a wee pimple of a field, those others surrounding it are massive in comparison, it would make us energy independent for generations (quite possibly an energy exporter).

    "Transition Energy" power until we can decide how, which nuclear technology to go with.

    “Follow the trend lines, not the headlines,”



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    image.png

    (1) Very suspiciously spending a fair bit of time down near 100 g CO2/KWh. ( It's why I tend to post graphs rather than cherry picked snapshots as some other posters do. )

    At present we have to have at least 25% synchronous generation and it's mostly thermal so that base should drop significantly when we'll only need 5% sync / 95% SNSP. Perhaps to ~20 g CO2 / KWh.

    (2) Not sure what you are referring to. As I've said many times in the past nuclear doesn't displace coal for countries that have good access to it, gas does and is in turn is getting displaced by renewables.

    OR as I've been saying too that moving from coal to gas saves more emissions than going to nuclear. Having 70% nuclear and 30% coal would mean higher emissions (246g CO2 / KWh) than we currently have. How you'd get 70% nuclear on an island where peak demand is more than twice minimum demand is an interesting question.

    Had we started going nuclear in 1992 instead of building our first wind farm we have faced a 40% abandonment rate and 20+ years waiting for the first reactor so at best we'd only be getting a little over a decade of emission savings , instead of dropping as far as we have by going with renewables.

    And with nuclear we'd be facing the issue of spinning reserve and backup from plants that have long scheduled outages and unpredictable unscheduled ones.

    A weather forecast will allow you to plan for the amount of renewables in 4.5 days time. No one knows when an automatic SCRAM will happen, because no humans in the loop. Or when a transformer fire will isolate the largest generators from the grid.

    Nuclear is intermittent too but on a longer timescale than renewables. Which is why I'd argue that the infrastructure to support nuclear on the Irish grid would allow renewables to do the same job sooner. An Irish grid that could accommodate nuclear wouldn't need it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    Them engineers what do they know eh, only 10 days worth of storage there, whoever thought that’s a good idea



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,044 ✭✭✭✭josip


    The academy also called for the acceleration of plans to convert the old Kinsale natural gas reservoir off the south coast to gas storage, something most energy industry figures have been seeking for several years.

    For anyone who can't read the full article behind the paywall.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    Yet another good move, that we don’t have gas storage nor LNG terminals is yet another failure of policy the Greens and their crusade has left us with



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    There was a plan many years back , to convert the either the ballycotton or the kinsale field to storage - it was already being used for grid pressure storage ( cushion gas ) , the owners of the field dropped the plan ,

    Apparently talk was that they lost a summers worth of cushion gas .. ie they bought the gas from the grid in spring summer , and put it in the well , but it didn't come out again.. there was a problem with the geology

    That could have been hydro carbon engineers urban myth type thing , but the lads i heard it from were a lot more qualified than i am to determine that ..

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/sweden-pauses-plans-new-power-cable-denmark-2026-05-08/?

    One for those proposing we become more reliant on cables to other countries and then expect em not to hold us hostage for political reasons



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,004 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    yes because LNG is expensive and subject to disruption and security issues due to external factors (like we are seeing now with the iran war)

    like nuclear, just not viable in ireland.

    I'm very highly educated. I know words, i have the best words, nobody has better words then me.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    as has been noted time and time again Ireland is now heavily dependent on gas thanks to renewables

    Gas that mostly comes via a single point of failure with no backup and could plunge the country into darkness for up to a year

    What happens if the pipeline to UK fails or is sabotaged or is used by a twat like Farage who just had a great political win to hold us ransom?

    LNG could be cheaper at times and provides redundancy since we are gonna be burning gas well into the next century thanks to green watermelons



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Having LNG is an insurance policy, Having Gas storage is also an insurance policy, as to an extent would be some levels of gas production..

    Having wind , solar ,batteries and interconnecters ,reduces just how much gas you need over the season,

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Turkey is building nuclear. They have gas pipelines to the Caspian Sea but none through Kurdistan to the Middle East.

    Ireland has a fair bit of battery storage on the grid but -

    Turkey's project pipeline of 32.8 GW is more than three times that of its nearest rivals: Germany (10.5 GW), Poland (10.4 GW) and Italy (10.2 GW). … As of late 2025, Turkey’s total installed wind and solar capacity reached 40 GW. … However, the report notes that while batteries globally average 2.5 hours of storage, most of Turkey's projects have short storage durations of around one hour.

    “Grid-scale battery costs dropped to a record low in 2025, a 45% drop from 2024, continuing a trend of roughly 20% annual cost reductions over the past decade. As battery economics improve, projects are increasingly profitable without subsidies,” she told Euronews Business.

    https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/11/14/irelands-battery-storage-fleet-to-grow-to-13-5-gwh-by-2030/ combined with solar and the usual suspects would remove the need for nuclear during summer, day or night.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    That is a good rate for 40 years. Appears they wanted that strike price set for 60years but the E.U. insisted on 40. What business that was of the E.U. I have no idea, but seeing as the E.U. is not putting any money in I would be inclined to see it as none.

    Poland will be the owners of that plant when completed and they are in negotiations for the same for their next planned nuclear plant, and I can see the reason they are. Something very much overlooked when it comes to state control of a generation source.

    Hungary generates 35% the electricity it consumes from nuclear and are adding further plants to bring that up to 70% with first concrete pour February this year. Their price for domestic electricity is one third the E.U. average and one quarter Ireland`s Like the rest of the E.U. Hungary is governed by the marginal pricing policy, but unlike renewable companies who pocket the profits from that policy, with their nuclear plants being state owned Hungary, uses that profit to subsidize domestic consumers.

    Poland, far as I can see, are going to follow the same policy, and Belgium who are going to add further nuclear plants as well. The are currently in negotiations with Electrabel who own Belgium`s present plants to nationalize them.

    If people are hoping to ever get a affordable reliable supply of electricity from the marginal pricing policy it`s not going to be from renewables. It`s going to be from nuclear.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,004 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    we are dependant on gas because we are in transition to modern cheap energy sources and that will require a backup until ready.
    that would be the same with expensive and redundant nuclear but then we would have an absolute money pit on our hands that is not dependant or reliable and would require a constant backup which would end up being cheaper to use as our main energy source.
    lng is always more expensive and more subject to disruption and security issues as we are now seeing.
    we will be burning gas for a lot shorter thanks to the greens and their modernisation program.

    I'm very highly educated. I know words, i have the best words, nobody has better words then me.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    We have no chance in hell of meeting net zero goals or transitioning completely before 2050

    That’s 24 years on current course, plenty of time to build nuclear

    Irish engineering representative interviewed above who I’m sure knows what he is talking about compared to spoofers here laughed at Ireland meeting current 2050 goals

    Edit; nuclear is mentioned at very end, he says we should be watching what’s happening in Canada and across sea from Dublin, start laying groundwork for nuclear now



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    This that support this current plan, which originated from the greens, keep telling us about this money pit nuclear would be, yet never give any costing to this plan they favor.

    Why is that. Is it because they do not know, or they do they know that it would be ruinous for our economy while still having us paying the most expensive electricity prices on the planet and laughable.?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,004 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    not meeting the goal until 2050 is not the worst thing, but it's not plenty of time to build nuclear in reality.
    there is no point in us watching a technology that has promised so much but not delivered what it promised, a technology that is expensive and unreliable and which requires large scale backup anyway.
    backup that could be our main energy source for a fraction of the cost of nuclear and be built in full in a fraction of the time scale.
    the time for nuclear in ireland was between the 50s and the 80s at the latest.

    I'm very highly educated. I know words, i have the best words, nobody has better words then me.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,004 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    they gave you the costings, the plan is a fraction of the cost of nuclear, can be delivered in a fraction of the time and is reliable.

    and it has backup built in from the start as part of it.

    I'm very highly educated. I know words, i have the best words, nobody has better words then me.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    200bn + for wind/solar/storage/interconnectors/gas until next century is not a fraction of the price

    It’s a multiple, almost an order of magnitude

    and then have to redo every twenty years

    Funny how all the engineers and figures and costing and examples are being ignored, like some sort of a cult



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Nobody has given me any detail whatsoever as to what the different components of a plan they favor would be or what they would cost, so who are these "they" you seem to believe did ?

    And what is this backup built in from the start as part of it ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 252 ✭✭XT1200


    Back in 1970 The Irish Goverment decided that the future was Nuclear power. What followed was mass a demonstration which succeeded in changing the Goverments decision and they shelved the plan eventually in 1981, In 1999 The Electricity Generating Regulatory Act formally prohibited the generation of electricity in the Republic of Ireland. Skip to 23.30.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IflNsGHVX80



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    there’s been proposals now to roll that back in the Dail as some politicians are waking up to the coming political (never mind environmental) bomb that the Greens have have set under the state

    anyways yet another Engineering professor speaks out, I’m sure many of the watermelons have better credentials than all these engineers and engineering bodies /s

    IMG_6893.jpeg



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    So what you are suggesting is that the French could have made a fortune exporting power to Germany because this was during the gas embargo ?

    Instead EDF lost €17.9Bn because you can't cut corners on nuclear. In 2022 French nuclear output was 282 TWh down from 430 TWH in 2005 (and 2015 if Flamanville-3 had lived up to it's promise)

    BTW First link in that article = https://iai.tv/articles/the-hype-behind-nuclear-energy-doesnt-match-the-reality-auid-3415

    Nuclear can't do peaking, can't ramp up fast enough to provide spinning reserve, can't do local stability and voltage control near the cities. On a Irish grid nuclear is too big to provide spinning reserve and backup for. On an Irish grid with overnight storage, nuclear won't be able to sell power to grid for half the year, effectively doubling it's cost , and you'll still need peaking plant all winter.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    So not able to address any of the points made by the engineering professor and only managed to highlight that the publication examines both sides of the debate

    while going of in a cherrypicking tangent again about France which at time of this post is producing 20x less co2 than Ireland while not being the most expensive in Europe



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Germany, like ourselves is still in the moving to renewable stage. Every KWh of displaced fossil gas is a win. No one expects renewables to do 100% of the job because no has rolled out 100% renewables.

    Even France never got beyond the high 70's % wise with nuclear. So that's 25-30% that has to come from somewhere else and that's way more than enough to cover any drop in renewables. Nuclear has never met the standard you are holding renewables up to and it can't.

    Re cherry picking , there's always Japan. Between them and France that's a quarter of plants worldwide. Nuclear can and does let you down hard. An Irish grid couldn't handle that without the infrastructure that would allow renewables to win, earlier.

    France is producing cheap electricity because they are sweating paid for assets instead of investing in nuclear. This is why I keep reminding you that French nuclear is way down from the 430 TWh they use to have, and should have now if they hadn't lost the ability to build nuclear power plants on schedule.

    France is currently going through the fourth ten-year inspections of the 900 MW reactors and the start of the fourth ten-year inspections of the 1,300 MW reactors in 2026. There shouldn't be any surprises it's EDF and safety standards are evolving which makes nuclear more expensive as time goes one.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    Germany spent a trillion euro and twenty years now and are in a situation where their industrial might is being destroyed while remaining one of the most polluting and second most expensive behind us in Ireland

    That EDF you give out about made billions for the French state and is going to build more nuclear as per their plants



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