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How many of us think that unification is no longer a priority and don't really want unification ?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Now the descent into utter nonsense. Uprooting home and family would cost the price of a Easijet flight?

    The sheer ridiculousness of the stuff you post is off the scale.

    But we know your approach will be the same as meted out to northern nationalists and southern unionists at partition - abandon them and allow resentment and anger to fester.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,954 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    That is incredibly unlikely. I would go so far as to say the UK "offloading" NI without a border poll is impossible. What would that even mean!?

    Ireland definitely won't "take it" without a UI referendum. And I think you massively misjudged the importance attached to maintaining the UK as an entity. There is a massive difference between not caring about the people of NI and not caring about the concept



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,987 ✭✭✭yagan


    A decade ago some would have said it was mad that the UK would leave the EU, and in time it's entirely likely that England will leave the UK.

    The greatest concentrations of people who identify as British are in NI and first generation in big cities like Birmingham and London. Otherwise the vast majority of English are English first, likewise with Welsh in Wales and Scottish in Scotland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,960 ✭✭✭csirl


    What happens if Scotland achieves independence? This isnt an unlikely scenario.

    Given that the unionists are "Scots Ulster", does this.mean N.I will be part of Scotland rather than England & Wales?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭JohnDoe2025


    A couple of things here. Firstly, London can't unload NI into a united Ireland without a referendum North and South, that is part of an international agreement they have signed up to. In theory, they could opt for a different option, offload Scotland and Northern Ireland into a new independent entity or entities, but that isn't going to happen either. There cannot be a united Ireland without those referenda.

    Secondly, the concept of a "super majority" is already baked into the GFA where the British SoS has to deem a referendum likely to pass. If Manchester City were playing Manchester City from the mirror universe on Saturday, neither would be likely to win, but if Manchester City were playing Northampton Town at home then Manchester City would be likely to win. The stats would probably show that second match at 60:40, those are the type of odds for "likely" to pass.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    the concept of a "super majority isalready baked into the GFA

    Paisley jun found to his cost this was spurious nonsense. The GFA states a ‘majority’ simple as that.
    And you seem to have flip flopped from you position of a few days ago re: there are NO Constraints on the SoS. He/She can call a BP for any reason they deem fit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,398 ✭✭✭✭gormdubhgorm


    Guff about stuff, and stuff about guff.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,954 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    There is no constitutional mechanism to "offload" a constituent part of the UK. It is not even clear what that means! Force them to be independent? Force them on ireland? It is not remotely the same as Brexit.

    Post edited by Podge_irl on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭crusd


    United Ireland and Scotland? The nation of the Gaels? Greater Dalriada?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭JohnDoe2025


    Where did I say that?

    I said that the British SoS has the sole power of deciding and he can decide any which way he wants - the Courts have already ruled on that - but I have also pointed out that this would be challenged in court if he so decided without any evidence.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    So what if it’s ‘challenged’?

    How does that validate a requirement for a super majority?
    A challenge and the wish for a super majority are just signs of fear or bitterness at a democratic outcome.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,546 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    So when you propose to pay ( or rather get the British to pay) unionists to leave N.Ireland, in the event of a U.I., what exactly do you propose? If making N.I. a cold house for them does not work, if they do not want their kids learning Irish etc etc and listening to Kneecap chant "Up the Ra" if the Ra murdered their relatives, how much do you propose getting the British taxpayer to pay them to leave the island? £5,000 ? £50,000? £ 500,000?

    When budgeting the costs of a U.I., has anyone taken the above in to account? Silly question, did not think so.

    What other costs would there be in a U.I. which are not even thought about yet?

    Care to share any more details of your glorious U.I. plan, you being a prolific S.F. supporter and so on?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I won’t be planning a UI nor will a single political party.
    A UI wiil be planned by the stake holders on it willing to sit down and contribute.

    The only people too bitter not to contribute will be belligerents and partitionists. A minority on this island.
    Majorities in both patitioned parts have already agreed to a transition in the GFA.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,546 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    Nothing of the sort. To clarify, they have only agreed to the possibility of a transition if - and only if - the majority on both parts of the island were agreeable to a transition. The GFA took away the constitutional claim the Republic had on N. Ireland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    73% of the Irish people including those who identify as British have agreed to a transition. If there is no agreement to transition it goes without saying there is no need to invoke an agreement unless there is a transition.

    As our ruling parties were never going to act on the constitutional claim it was no big deal to get shut of it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭JohnDoe2025


    It is in the wording of the GFA.

    The British SoS can call a referendum when he believes it is likely to pass. That belief cannot exist in a vaccum. Like any public policy decision it has to be based on evidence, it has to pass the test of what it says. If it is not passing that test, it can be challenged in court. So, if, in one election, nationalist MPs have more seats, it becomes possible that a border poll might pass. If that is repeated in further elections and is also accompanied by opinion polls showing significant support on a consistent basis for a united Ireland, then it is likely to pass. The decision is easy to make and is unchallengeable.

    However, the British SoS can't decide to hold a border poll on the evidence of, say, one standalone opinion poll or calls from SF to hold one. Neither of those situations create the likelihood of it passing.

    It really is quite simple common sense when you think about it that to get to the threshold of being likely to pass, support over 50% for a consistent few years would be necessary to reach that conclusion.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Go back and read what the courts says, specifically the bit where it says the SoS ‘cannot be constrained’ and does NOT have to explain his/her reasoning.

    Good luck to anyone and their money trying to overturn that.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,954 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    This has essentially already been judged though - they can call it for whatever reason they feel like essentially as it is based upon nothing other than their judgement.

    The counterpoint of the judgement is that the SoS is under no obligation to call one no matter what the public at large think about the likelihood of a BP passing. And the chances of any SoS calling one with the current political situation in the UK are vanishingly small no matter the opinion on the ground in NI.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Nor were they obliged to call a Scottish Ind referendum.

    Why was one called? Pressure.

    They were compelled to call one as a democracy when just 30% were in favour in the polls.

    Let’s say that Lucid poll is only partially correct, that is the kind of event that creates it’s own pressure and other events will feed into that.

    Of course you may be correct and the SoS might resist that pressure, who knows. But they would need to have a huge interest and care to resist and that has not been evident in decades.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,954 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    It is a shame that the main proponent for a Border Poll completely rejects their opportunity to apply any pressure on the UK govt then. Instead they waste their time arguing about it in Dublin.

    The SNP never would have achieved the Scottish Indy ref without their large representation in Westminster. The SoS for NI doesn't need to "resist" anything because nothing is being put to them. They just need to ignore what is happening in an entirely different jurisdiction.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    As largest political party on the island I think SF woukd reject tgat assessment. Their growth is a pressure point in itself.
    The idea they’d be listened to i WM is quite a fantastical idea notwithstanding.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,546 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    Of course they would be listened to. People are people. People talk to people as long as they are civil. Rubbing shoulders with people and collaborating and co-operating works the world over when done right.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,546 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    The majority of people, inc those born in the N. Irish part of the UK but who identify as Irish, have agreed to the possibility of a transition. There will be no transition to a U.I unless and until a mojority in both jurisdictions want a U.I. That may very well never happen, in which case there will be no transition.

    A United Ireland may have been closer in 1973 around the time of the last referendum, because if the referendum which was then held in N. Ireland voted for a U.I., the British government may have left N.I, sharpish, and without the consent of the people south of the border. Same as it left everywhere else in the world it was not wanted.

    Now if a U.I. referendum passes north of the border, it must also pass south of the border for a U.I. to happen. There is no guarantee of course a majority would EVER vote for a U.I. on both sides of the border.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The DUP and, since Jim arrived in WM - the TU, have been standing on their hind legs baying about the Sea Border (they were PROMISED would never happen) over 500 MPs voted in favour of and NOBODY is listening to them. The British/English don’t care. How many times do they need to show you?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,546 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    The British / English do care, they give tens of billions annually to N. Ireland. They base loads of public service jobs there. They allow it to have free access to both EU and UK markets. It is part of NATO, arguably the best defence pact in the world - the Swedes and Finnish made sure they joined it in the past few years. People in N.I. enjoy the benefits of the free NHS, not having to pay expensive doctors fees or VHI subscriptions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    And they have screwed Unionists so many times their unelected mouth pieces are briefing that they care more about republicans and bationalists.

    In another post you will trumpet the ‘money’ is a drop in the ocean to the UK. Pick a position and try to stick to it!
    Good night.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,546 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    It is not a drop in the ocean, tens of billions is a lot of money. One minute you say the Brits "colluded" with the unionists, then you say "they screwed them over so many times". Make up your mind, will you? Pick a position and try to stick to it!

    For the record, the tens of billions the British mainlanders give the people of N. Ireland every year benefits both unionists and republicans there. As has happened since the seventies, there is no discrimination in who it is given to, what jobs are given to whom etc.

    The British were always fair minded, as SDLP MP Gerry Fitt said. As a young man joining the merchant navy there, he was not asked his religion, nobody cared what religion he was.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,062 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    It is not a drop in the ocean, tens of billions is a lot of money.

    And here you are telling us that it's 'relatively little' to the UK taxpayer.

    The cost of maintaining N.I. is relatively little per UK taxpayer, as there are 38 million of them.

    post 4384 Northern Ireland 2125? - Page 147 — boards.ie - Now Ye're Talkin'



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭JohnDoe2025


    I have read that judgement carefully, the court is quite clear, the British SoS is under no obligation to set out his reasons in advance of making a decision, they are free to use their judgement in whatever way they want. However, that does not preclude a challenge once the decision has been made. The decision can be challenged on the basis that it is irrational, flies in the face of the GFA. The courts did not make the decision immune from judicial review.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭JohnDoe2025


    For all the loud claims of the British screwing Unionists so many times, how come the Union still exists?

    I'll tell you why, the British are interested in keeping Northern Ireland, and they are also interested in making sure it works properly.



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