Dublin Central By-election

This seat is going to go left for sure. There's an SF 'left' vote of 20-odd percent, an 'other left' vote of 40 odd percent , a 'centre' vote of 20 odd percent and a 'right' vote of around 15%.

The question will be who on the left gets their nose in front to accumulate the rest of that vote. SF are going to bust a gut to try and get in front and I think that might work in the initial stages. Boylan doesn't have Mary Lou's charisma in the constituency - and in case you are giggling - MLMD is a very different person in that constituency to the one you see in the Dail - I wouldn't have believed it until I saw her action - but personal charisma is not transferrable so I don't think Boylan.

The SDs think Ennis might do it - he is well known in the constituency and is a councillor. I think he's capable of beating Boylan

Horners only chance comes from her status as a councillor and a member of the green party. The greens do well at council level but struggled in the last set of elections. I don't think her time is yet.

Labours ODea is hardly known. Sherlock surprised everybody by pushing through the last time - she struggled to accumulate votes. I don't think ODea can do much but her votes will feed into the other left. I'd agreee with L1011 on her being prepared for a council seat - but not on outpolling both FF and FG - FF possibly.

Ó Ceannabháin did better than expected last time - he has a strong young following - the problem for him is that he's not an immediate target for voters number 2s. His number 2s went primarily to the SDs last time. A strong vote for him will ultimately help the SDs

On the right Steenson and Hutch could end up with a combined vote to beat the early left leader but they'll run into the sand. If SF are eliminated before them the SF transfers could help them but only a small proportion will go right. Difficult to see a combined right vote greater than 18% - certainly not enough to win.

For FF and FG I can't see any joy - the combined FF/FG vote in recent years has hovered around 25-30% - if anything I would expect this to decline. Neither of their candidates are particular inspiring - Macadam has some name recognition but at the moment not neccessarily for the right reasons.

I haven't seen any indication whether Clare Daly will run. I don't think if she did she would make any impact.

I think Ennis is the likely winner at this stage. An early elimination of ODea and Horner might help Boylan - there is a pattern of women transferring preferentially to women even against political allegiance but there has also been a strong pattern recently of Labour, Greens and SD transferring to each other before they consider SF. Add in
Ó Ceannabháin's likely transfers and I think his position looks very good.

Anyway - we've only just begun as they say

No one's ruling them out. That would be ridiculous. This is a byelection in the constituency of the leader of the opposition, and the key point is that her party aren't runaway favourites to win. They could and (probably will) still win, and if they don't it would be an absolute disaster both for the party and her personally.

I agree with you, though 23% should still make them favourites to win in a very fragmented constituency. But isn't the situation you outline remarkable in itself? The ultimate (mostly) inner-city, working-class constituency, with the leader of the supposedly 'left' opposition a local TD, yet they're not even favourites to win it.

I just watched TWIP. I’m not from the D1 constituency so am only speaking as an observer. I can only comment on the panel on the TV.
The FG candidate came across to me as bombastic. I found Him very unappealing. Same goes for The SF candidate.
The Labour candidate impressed me & She conducted Herself well.

But overall, the SD candidate won hands down.

EDIT: Sorry the constituency is more than D1, I should rather have said the ‘Constituency’.

I do agree with Cyclingtourist that the high transfer rates between female candidates regardless of party have been a feature of recent elections but I'm not sure how much it will impact this by-election.

The Sinn Fein vote is, I think, the key to this. MLMcd attracts votes from people you wouldn't expect to vote SF. She is an excellent local campaigner and I think Boylan's low vote in the last election was a result of a 'save the leader' surge when it became clear that the Hutch campaign was growing legs. SF are good at vote management. However, as things look at the moment, there seems to be an impetus behind Ennis and I still think that the left vote will accumulate around whoever gets in front.

FF and FG are both running sitting councillors with modest local profiles (McAdam - FG, Lord Mayor; Stephens - FF Deputy Lord Mayor) - neither of them seem particularly outstanding - just typical local councillors - Stephens seems to me to be the weaker of the two - a throwback to the 70's having worked for both Haughey and Colley. MacAdam has a slightly higher profile and I'm sure FG will throw the kitchen sink behind him since they'll view it as 'their' seat but I think the destination of their transfers will be the only influence they'll have on this election. If Governmental transfers are working Stephens transfers will go to McAdam leaving maybe 20% of the overall vote with him. In the last few elections the combined FF/FG FP vote has been around 25%. I think McAdam will have enough to avoid being eliminated before Hutch.

Ennis could also be a likely home for the FG and FF votes if either or both of their candidates are eliminated - certainly these will not be votes that go to SF - so even if Boylan is ahead of Ennis I think he could pull ahead of her - particularly if both FF and FG are eliminated before the final count.

Hutch isn't that visible at the moment but this happened at the General Election as well. I can see Hutch and Steenson getting roughly the same combined pecentage as before (15%) which won't be enough to elect either of them but in this case the transfers will come in to play. Hutch took their accumulated votes to the last count so we didn't get to see a transfer occur. The common belief at the time was that Hutch took SF votes and the numbers did suggest that - the question is whether those votes will go back to SF as transfers - if they do that could be good news for Boylan.

The other right Aontu etc will probably only improve their positions at the expense of Hutch and Steenson. The combined right took 18% in the general election I don't see that changing much.

The other Left took 22% at the last election (although I'm not sure Clare Daly should be included in that). I think that block is more inclined to the SDs than SF. Ó Ceannabháins votes transferred to Labour last time but I think Ó Ceannabháin might outlast O'Dea - although his campaign posters are pretty poor.

As I see it at the moment I'd put Boylan and Ennis out in front with McAdam behind them - I think Stephens is the weakest government candidate. Hutch will probably represent the right but will be behind McAdam.

I think the final result will be close between Boylan and Ennis - as usual transfers and order of elimination will decide the winner. Somebody could well make an eejit of themselves before the vote but I have Ennis to shade it for two reasons - 1) the SDs are more transfer-friendly than SF 2) the SF electoral machine has , for some reason, been stuttering recently. Still more than a fortnight to go - and a fortnight is longer than a week in politics.