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Nuclear - future for Ireland?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    The only difference between turbine suppliers warranty and a service charge is that for the first 3 -5 years for "full wrap" coverage you pay nothing as it is already baked into the price of the turbine as a warranty. After that if you want to maintain "full wrap" you pay the supplier an annual service charge or extended warranty whichever you wish to call it.

    From the end of the "free warranty" annually up until year 10 that would cost ~€45,000 per turbine. From year 11 to year 15 ~€55,000 per turbine per year, and from year 16 to year 25 €70,000 per turbine per year, although at year 20 the supplier would most likely look for major refurbishing with new blades, gearbox etc.before extending "full wrap" coverage. Nothing free warranty about that when you consider it would require 160 15MW turbines to generate 1GW at a capacity factor of 42%.

    A good indicator as to why a company would seek a new fixed contract price for a new offshore wind farm after 20 years rather than paying out for those refurbishing costs and still having to pay out €11.2 million annually for for those 160 turbines giving diminishing returns.

    Do you ever answer anything you are asked ???

    On the posts between myself and another poster you decided to jump in on, do you believe the other poster was correct that for 2025 we used 16.264 TWh of gas to generate electricity or the 25.2 TWh that I posted, the relevant Minister stated and numerous government officials stated ?

    With you being an engineer and us having used 25.2 TWh of gas to generate electricity in 2025, where the average efficiency for OCGT, (peaker plants) is 40% and for CCGTs (base load) is 60%, then from the electricity generated by gas it should be a simple matter for you to determine how much gas each used.

    You can include how much of each with the plan you favour and it`s cost.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Under this current plan we would be burning gas forever and a day at the same volume we are burning now and if we had not been importing electricity, for last year alone we would have burned 14.6% more.

    At least with nuclear when you see how little gas France, Sweden and Finland have in their generation mix it`s a clear indicator of how to get out of using gas or reducing it to a bare minimum.

    France 5.2%

    Finland 0.9%

    Sweden 1.2%

    Ireland ~40% with us importing 14.6% of our electricity. Without importing that figure would be ~46%



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,493 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    I have the prices in front of me for various wind farm and you are incorrect


    Not all OCGT are peakers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    It doesn`t matter if you are using OCGT as peaker or for baseload, the thermal efficiency is 35% - 45%. I gave the average of 40%.

    It does not change that with you being an engineer you should not have a problem with you already knowing how much electricity we generated from gas and the volume used, how much of the electricity was generated was by OCGT plants and CCGT plants. So do you know it or not ?

    Your original post was your belief that the suppliers warranty covered the lifetime of the turbine. Are you sticking to that belief rather than that after an initial 3 -5 year warranty for "full wrap" coverage, (baked into the purchase price), to maintain that "full wrap" coverage, an annual service charge per turbine, increasing incrementally, will have to be paid to the supplier or not ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,493 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    just admit you were wrong about peakers.
    OCGT aren’t just baseload or peakers. Are you an engineer ?

    Service agreements cover major components.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 10,047 ✭✭✭✭SeanW


    Hi all, I was away from this thread for a few weeks: Has anyone yet answered the question of where Ireland will get its gas from if the mess in the Strait of Hormuz is not sorted soon?

    Because as I understand it, the idea of a German style Energiewende, or a transition to renewables only, was that gas would be used as a "transition fuel" to back up unreliable renewables. Yet as I pointed out, Western Europe no longer has sufficient gas reserves to do this and consequently relied on a variety of politically problematic imports - before 2022 from Russia and before 2026 from the Middle East, e.g. Qatar.

    To those who propose continued reliance on (or even doubling down on) gas, e.g. through CCGT plants, may I enquire again as to where it is to come from?

    Bear in mind that Ireland has no gas storage, no LNG loading docks, and AFAIK no active gas exploration.

    https://u24.gov.ua/
    Join NAFO today:

    Help us in helping Ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,493 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    Has anyone said continue burning gas? Ireland is getting a FRSU which will offer some reserve How much gas does Europe get via the strait ?

    Project Kestrel is looking at longer storage For Ireland


    people have asked

    1.) how much will nuclear cost?

    2.) where will it go ?

    3.) how long would it take to commission one?



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    image.png

    Page 381 Grid Incident in Spain and Portugal on 28 April 2025

    When they started up the islands they started providing power to Nuclear plants which became a consumer of power - "At 15:07, all Spanish nuclear power plants confirmed that they had external supply for their auxiliary services."

    For something that's supposed to be reliable baseload, nuclear didn't assist with black starts and only came back online later on. The nuclear plants in Spain didn't have Power System Stabilisers.

    Nuclear cannot provide spinning reserve, local voltage control, backup or black start capability.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Indeed they are not, but using them in any other role decreases their thermal efficiency factor of 40%. It does not increase it to the 60% thermal factor of CCGT plants.

    It`s actually none of your business as to what my qualifications are as I am not the person claiming on here to be an engineer who yet cannot, knowing the percentage of electricity generated and the volume of gas used, answer the question of how much electricity was generated by OCGT plants with a thermal efficiency factor of 40% and CCGT plants with a thermal efficiency factor of 60%.

    So do warranties, but only for the first 3 - 5 years.

    After that, with age related incremental increases to keep that major components cover, the owner of the turbines will have to pay the supplier via a service agreement/warranty call it whichever you wish. It`s standard practice for major plant in all areas of business. Again, surprised an engineer would not be aware of that

    But that is not what you believed in your post now was it ? Your belief that the original 3 - 5 year warranty covered the lifetime of the turbines is completely incorrect.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65




    5. Role During the Restoration Process

    During the recovery phase, the variable nature of renewables presented a challenge for re-energizing the grid.  

    • Section 5.8 (Page 390): Explains that in both Spain and Portugal, renewable plants were initially kept disconnected or their connection was strictly controlled to avoid destabilizing the fragile "islanded" systems during the black-start and restoration sequences.

    your renewables started the oscillation, intensified and tipped the system over in 70 seconds and then slowed down the restoration

    all that page says is that Nuclear remained safe and had their own backup supply all while the grid went down around them, according to posters on this thread and their misinformation just like what you just attempted, there should have been at least half a dozen meltdowns



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    the Guardian and FT reporting on risks of being wholly reliant on China

    The report said Europe was heavily dependent on Chinese green technology, with China supplying 98% of the continent’s solar panels; 88% of imports of lithium-ion batteries, which are used in smartphones, electric vehicles and large-scale energy storage; and 61% of imports of inverters, which integrate renewable energy with a power grid. Chinese EV brands are also increasingly popular across Europe.

    The report said potential threats included China using “kill switches” to remotely disable solar panels, EVs or power grids. However, the report said such an attack was “very unlikely” unless China was at war or near conflict, given the risk of inciting retaliation.

    And right after that

    Post edited by bored65 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,493 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    black starts can be difficult, we were helping a customer with one. They didn’t have much renewables , but had closed some older gas plants iin the city for larger ones outside.
    you generally island your system and bring it back on a controlled basis. But it turned out that the new generation wax to far from the city. And when bringing back on the thermal plants it couldn’t meet the load and under voltage protection kept tripping out the lines.

    So not just an issue with RES. It’s about having enough generation in the local area.

    ScottiehPower did a black start in 2020 with Onshore wind


    Californian used BESS to start CCGT from a. Blackstart.

    Sweden have validated black start from wind.

    Post edited by ted1 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    Ukraine had to black start its whole grid from nuclear about a dozen times in this war as those are just about the only power plants left standing providing 80% of country’s power

    Meanwhile how the hell will we start up our grid with only wind/solar/interconnectors and batteries as is the current path we are being taken down

    Post edited by bored65 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,736 ✭✭✭Consonata




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,493 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    Has anyone ever suggested that we do. ?

    I do believe that it would be possible especially with BESS and hydro. But remember that the larger picture involves hydrogen and other green fuels.

    Have you a source for your claim about Ukraine ?

    Other sources say they use BESS, hydro and strategically placed temporary generators…… the grid is so damaged that they need to decentralise generation


    like most thermal plants Nuclear can’t start on its own


    do you know how to do a black start? Island the grid. Bring it back a bit at at time ensuring supply meets demand.

    To little generation and you’ll get under voltage trips. To much and you’ll get over voltage trips



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    We had, and to an extent still have, our own Straits of Hormuz in the Irish Green Party and their supporters.

    Eamon Ryan was repeatedly warned by Eirgrid and the CRU about the need for a LNG facility due to energy security and our own Corrib gas diminishing returns. Rather than do anything to address that the greens spent their time in government faffing around banning any further exploration, opposing the construction of the Shannon LNG terminal with him personally attempting to interfere with planning permission,and attempting to bring in legislation to ban U.S. LNG because of fracking. The Attorney General put a stop to that one as it would have been illegal under E.U. law.

    In 2022 a report by Cambridge Economic Policy Associates identified the need for an LNG facility, but due to Ryan and the Green Party opposition to such a facility in the country, got around that by proposing one at sea by leasing a FSRU vessel. The typical Irish solution to an Irish problem, as not only are these vessels low in number and high in demand, leasing one would cost €60 million or more annually. Ryan did nothing and it wasn`t until 2025 when the Greens were out of office that a docking site was approved at Cahiracon, ironically on the Shannon Estuary next door to the proposed privately owned Shannon LNG terminal. Far as I know to this day even the plans for the docking facility are not completed.

    As we are we are completely dependent on Norway for gas who have around 10 years of known reserves and anyone that thinks this current plan we are following would, even if we could afford it, not require gas in ten years time needs to take a major reality check.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,736 ✭✭✭Consonata


    You give out so much, but you don't come up with a coherent alternative. Any time your views are held under any degree of scrutiny you pivot to something else.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    he/she literally has in great detail on this thread provided costings multiple times

    Meanwhile everyone is still waiting in the final costings of the current path Ireland is being pushed down which is gonna cost us hundreds of billions;

    • 37GW offshore by 2050
    • 10GW solar and onshore wind
    • ? Of hydro and or BESS storage
    • ?? Of interconnectors (if they every complete)
    • ??? Replacement cost for wind every two decades in perpetuity
    • ???? Gas that will continue to be used into the next century with new gas plants under construction
    • ????? On nonexistent hydrogen tech
    • ?????? Spinning reserve costs and how to start from a blackout


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,736 ✭✭✭Consonata


    Versus what? When do you envision Nuclear to be ready to start producing power in Ireland, because if it is any time after 2060, then we need some concrete alternatives



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    Koreans have shown they can build on time and budget in 10 years, they would even bring in their own personnel to do it.

    Thats 10 years to go completely carbon free, on trajectory we are now hundreds of billions will be spent and we will still be burning gas past 2050



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    Irradiated country of Belgium that looks like Fallout 76

    done a uturn on shutdown of their nuclear plants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,736 ✭✭✭Consonata


    If you think we can go from no plans for any NPP to a brand new NPP in <20 years, i have a bridge to sell you.

    And as has been articulated numerous times, We would still likely be burning as much gas/more gas with Nuclear as we do with renewables.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    Well then it shows neither the government nor the population are serious about actually reducing CO2 to zero

    Enjoy handing over 28 billion to EU, which coincidentally is what Korean option would cost



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,736 ✭✭✭Consonata


    What country in Europe which did not already have nuclear, built nuclear in the timelines you are suggesting?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    Over in the nuclear wasteland that is California

    Diablo Canyon (which supplies 10% of the state electricity) given permission operate another 20 years

    https://investor.pgecorp.com/news-events/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/U-S--Nuclear-Regulatory-Commission-Approves-License-Renewal-Application-for-Extended-Operations-of-Diablo-Canyon/default.aspx

    it has been operating for 40 years already



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    You do realise that 10 years is less than current 24 years timeline which still leaves us burning gas and will cost hundreds of billions

    And Turkey is completing a reactor they started in 2018 this year

    Poland (currently the dirtiest electricity in Europe) are starting work this year and finishing in 11 when they will leapfrog us

    Hell even Ukraine, the poorest European country (a third of our GDP!) in a middle of a war are rushing construction of nuclear plants, a country we are told by posters earlier in thread is a dystopian irradiated wasteland

    It’s been 5 years since this thread started, what have we accomplished with 9GW of wind and solar? Second most expensive electricity prices in Europe and one of the most polluting when it comes to electricity generation because most of the time we have to fallback to foreign gas we import via single pipeline (no lng terminal either)

    Arguments are similar now to those earlier pages, except now we have hard data from our own experience and a looming 28 billion euro fine from EU, let’s stop digging a bigger hole



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Not being, like some here, a believer that finance can be provided by money trees, I have posted extensively on the comparative cost of nuclear - the majority of which based on the most expensive nuclear plant those opposed could find- in relation to wind, solar, green hydrogen, storage pumped and batteries, the abject failure of the current regime to meet emission demands as well as the farcical idea that hauling wood half way around the world then long distance by road to be burned here is carbon neutral.

    For much of that you will not have to go back the "30 something pages" here to find, like you did on another thread accusing me of being wrong in some mystery post that you still have not provided me with the post number that I asked you for.

    For the entirety of this thread as well as others I have asked multiple times off anyone who supports this present plan, or even any alternative plan they may have, to post it with costings, but to date not a single reply with as much as a single figure. No shortage of waffling replies, but not as much as a single figure. Perhaps you will be the first to do so ???



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,736 ✭✭✭Consonata




  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Please tell us how you'd keep the lights on without using more fossil fuel than the current path until nuclear arrives.

    Please factor in the 40% abandonment rate, the decade long delays and cost increases when predicting if/when nuclear will arrive.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Here's the UK figures for OCGT and CCGT for last year. It may suggest the relative amounts that would be used on the Irish grid in future. Note the vertical scales are different by a factor of ten.

    image.png image.png


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