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Nuclear - future for Ireland?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65




  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    The US tried to build four AP1000 reactors.

    Vogtle 3 was supposed to go on line in 2016 and Vogtle 4 was for 2017

    Virgil C Summer 2 was due for 2017 and 3 was for 2018

    So the nuclear industry promised 32 years of power by now.

    Since commercial operation of the Vogtle plants only started 2023 and 2024 they've delivered 5 years of power

    But with nuclear the deeper you dig the worse it gets. They aren't 92% reactors.

    image.png

    https://www.nukeworker.com/facility/information/vogtle-3.html

    image.png

    https://www.nukeworker.com/facility/information/vogtle-4.html

    3 years at 73.4% is 220% of one year + plus 135% of a year for the 67.6% for 2 years.

    Promise was 32 years of power , delivery was 3.55 years. That's an 11% capacity factor.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    So the absolute worst reactor tech you could find from your own screenshots is still multiple of wind and solar thanks for furthering my point



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    11% capacity factor

    That's the difference between what nuclear promised and what nuclear actually delivered.

    89% of the power those plants were supposed to have produced came from somewhere else, most likely fracked gas.

    Nuclear delays are like a whole string of Christmases to fossil fuel merchants.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    your offshore wind farm will be rebuilt 3-4 times in the lifetime of that reactor as seas are harsh

    That’s if anything is built in Ireland, as per recent news there is serious opposition to Eiffel tower sized turbines polluting our coasts and the sea and wind too rough off the west coast so they will have to go in Dublin bay where even more people would oppose em

    But keep cherrypicking it’s funny how many own goals are made



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,427 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Why? The question you asked was kind of stupid, and also you never answer my question about nuclear costs in Australia from some days ago.

    Like your mate, when it comes to details, you dont seem to want to engage.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    The U.K. has 6 wind farms in the Irish Sea. Their 12 month rolling capacity is 36%

    Of the 3 licensed here for the Irish Sea (Codling Wind, Dublin Array and North Irish Sea Array) plus Tonn Nua the installed capacity is 3.524 GW and North Irish Sea Array is looking dodgy due to an SPA, fishing grounds and depths of 60 meters.

    The estimated capital cost of Dublin Array rose by 40% in the two years to 2025 to €2.1 Bn. So based on that increase the capital cost of all four for an installed capacity of 3.524 GW would be €9 Bn. €2.77 Bn per 1 GW of installed capacity. At 36% capacity factor the capital cost of I GW would be €7.08 Bn. At 42% capacity factor €6.07 Bn.

    Those are the capital cost for just 20 years . The hidden capital costs are that they would be torn down after that time, similar to what we have seen onshore, and two further rounds of capital costs would be required to cover the lifetime of a nuclear plant. That would bring the real capital costs to €21.24 Bn for a 36% capacity factor or €18.21 for 42% plus inflation. The capital cost of Hinkley C, the most expensive nuclear plant those opposed could find, at 88% capacity factor for the same as those 4 wind farms even at 42% and no need to worry about weather or messing around with very expensive green hydrogen to fill gaps when wind is doing little or nothing.

    The estimated figures being bandied around here for offshore wind are very far removed from the real world figures of similar for the likes of Empire Wind or Taiwan`s Hai Long.

    Btw in 2025 we generated 25.2 TWh of electricity from gas, not 18 TWh. Had we not imported 14.6% of our electricity that figure would have been 33.8 TWh.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,532 ✭✭✭riddlinrussell


    Hang on isn't part of the nuclear argument that the backup for an outage is more nuclear? If you're factoring the "green" hydrogen in ror renewables we need at least half a reactor worth of cost added to each reactor right? (4 primary supply 2 operating surplus is the figure I've seen here)

    (For the record yes I do believe the 'green' hydrogen thing is nonsense)

    Boards is in danger of closing very soon, if it's yer thing, go here (use your boards.ie email!)

    👇️ 👇️



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Green hydrogen was being factored in for renewables, in our case wind being intermittent and unreliable due to weather conditions. Nuclear would not have a problem with supply due to weather conditions here.

    The hydrogen nonsense has now changed somewhat to mirror the high capacity factors nonsense were were being fed on floating Atlantic wind farms in that we would be producing it to sell it instead of that Atlantic wind to others in Europe. One country I bizarrely see as a possibility is France who export large volumes of electricity, who if they needed hydrogen would have a much more effective means of producing using nuclear than us using wind to do so.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    How is picking EVERY single reactor that started construction since 1980 in the country that has the most reactors in the world cherry picking ??

    Again from their projected start date they have delivered only 11% of the promised power.

    OK lets pick every single reactor that was to come online since 2000 outside Asia, including those that started construction since 1990. 40% of them were abandoned

    Nuclear simply does not perform as advertised no matter how much hand-waving you try.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,808 ✭✭✭Busman Paddy Lasty


    For nuclear you can ignore backup costs and fuel type, construction embedded CO2, failed projects, long term spent fuel storage and reactor decommissioning costs.

    Only reactor costs in distant lands matter.

    All other costs apply to renewables though. Just wanna make sure you know the mob rules.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    How come every country that pursued this wind approach like us and Germany have

    • most expensive consumer and business electricity prices in world
    • Produce 6-10x more co on average more than nuclear powered neighbours

    You keep inventing figures but the facts one can see day after day on

    Speak for themselves

    We are neither cheaper nor greener and no amounts of marketing can change basic physics and economics

    It’s an incredible feat that was achieved by wind and gas lobbies, they sold the environmentalists on a lie that wind is cheaper and greener than nuclear and here we are paying for it while emmiting gobs of co2 and importing equipment from China whom use coal to make this stuff, and continue to import gas from places like Middle East, US and Russia all of whom are political basketcases too



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,640 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    According to REMIT as of April 2026, the Celtic Interconnector has been pushed out again to the end of 2028 now. s

    Save boards.ie by subscribing: https://subscriptions.boards.ie/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,044 ✭✭✭✭josip




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    top of the morning! Another beautiful sunny and breezy day

    IMG_6813.jpeg

    Producing 11x the co2 of France 🇫🇷

    While you consume your morning croissants consider

    https://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/cercle/plus-il-fait-beau-plus-ca-coute-cher-le-modele-de-soutien-aux-renouvelables-est-dune-perversite-documentee-2228322

    Use google translate if needed but article explicitly calls out the perverse contract for difference model across the EU countries which is ensuring renewables lead to high prices and costs for consumers and states



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,994 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Speaking of stupid, you said:

    So, what is the real number, as it seems you're shooting the messenger here.

    I don't know why people refer to the UAE as an example of cheap Nuclear power, when

    a) They use modern slaves for their construction labour force
    b) The country is an authoritarian state
    c) The country is not a common law state

    The UAE is by no means a representative bellweather.

    So since you think UAE built reactors were cheap because of slave labour, I'm asking do you think they use slave labour in S Korea? If the question is stupid it's only becase your assertion that prompted the question was stupid.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,044 ✭✭✭✭josip


    And for the sake of a few MW you couldn't bring yourself to use the most recent values available to you at 10:03 but had to go back half an hour to use the smaller gen and larger demand at 9:30 😀

    Looks like a record solar day for the country today, how many kWhs will your panels generate?

    image.png

    I've been trying to get my RTG going for a while now, but not getting anything from it yet. I will soon though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,427 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    The ability for the UAE to build the reactors cheaply was partly due to a cheap, slave-like labour they can call on.
    The average labourer there can earn approx €600 per month.
    Good luck paying Irish construction workers that.

    You also ignored the fact that the UAE is an authoritarian state, and its not a common law jurisdiction.

    Do you deny or push back against any of these?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,427 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    top of the morning! Another beautiful sunny and breezy day


    Your constant nitpicking reminds me of what David McWilliams said about nitpickers the other day..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,427 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Denmark has pursued a wind policy and their wholesale energy prices are below the EU average.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,427 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    The U.K. has 6 wind farms in the Irish Sea. Their 12 month rolling capacity is 36%

    Don't they have more like 10 wind farms, and their capacity is closer to 45%?

    The estimated capital cost of Dublin Array rose by 40% in the two years to 2025 to €2.1 Bn. So based on that increase the capital cost of all four for an installed capacity of 3.524 GW would be €9 Bn. €2.77 Bn per 1 GW of installed capacity. At 36% capacity factor the capital cost of I GW would be €7.08 Bn. At 42% capacity factor €6.07 Bn.

    Figures I have seen are:

    Dublin Array - €2Billion plus

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2025/02/26/2bn-dublin-bay-wind-energy-project-to-submit-planning-application/



    Codling - €3 Billion
    https://www.pleanala.ie/publicaccess/EIAR-NIS/320768/Environmental%20Impact%20Assessment%20Report%20(EIAR)/Volume%204%20Appendices/Chapter%2029%20Population/Appendix%2029.3%20Economic%20Impact%20Analysis.pdf

    North Irish Sea - €2Billion plus

    https://www.northirishseaarray.ie/

    So about €7 Billion, possibly a bit more.

    That would generate approx 11,000 GWh if you are looking at capacity factor of approx 45%

    Tonn Nua is in the Atlantic, so capacity factor there could be in the 50-55% range.
    It would cost anything from €2 billion to €3 billion

    It would generate about 3,900 GWh.

    So you are close to 15,0000 GWh per year, which is almost the same total Gas usage we have at the moment.

    Those are the capital cost for just 20 years .

    Can you share me some documents from any of the projects that state this? I cant find any. The baseline of windfarms is in the 25-30 year range.

    The capital cost of Hinkley C, the most expensive nuclear plant those opposed could find, at 88% capacity factor for the same as those 4 wind farms even at 42% and no need to worry about weather or messing around with very expensive green hydrogen to fill gaps when wind is doing little or nothing.


    How much would a nuclear power plant cost in Ireland, and how long would it take to build and start generating electricity?



    Btw in 2025 we generated 25.2 TWh of electricity from gas, not 18 TWh. Had we not imported 14.6% of our electricity that figure would have been 33.8 TWh.


    Those figures seem made up.

    https://www.greencollective.io/post/annual-recap-2025

    Gas accounted for 42.8% of generation in 2025
    All-Ireland demand in 2025 was approx 38,000 GWh

    So 42.8% of that is 16,264 GWh, nowhere near 25.2 TWh



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,493 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    He didn't say that Sync Cond generate electricity. He said it'll allow us increase the SNSP to aboove 75%



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,493 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    offshore has a design life of 35 years not 20 and that 35 can be extended….. what onshore wind is torn down at 20 years?

    Bellacorick Wind Farm was one of the first in Ireland, and was only decommissioned this year. That's 34 years of service.

    Crockahenny is next on the list that is 28 years and still standing.

    not bad considering the way technology has evolved.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,427 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Something I have noticed.

    Those who advocate nuclear don't seem to advocate their own position. They tear down the renewable argument, often with faulty or misleading data. They will ignore or exaggerate the position of Nuclear, but will exaggerate the numbers against renewable, and your post above is an example of that.

    I have asked about 30 times at this stage, on a thread about nuclear, on the cost of building a plant in Ireland.
    It has yet to be answered. Meanwhile, those who advocate it ignore that call for numbers and will instead give 100% of their focus to knock the renewable argument.

    Lastly, they complain about price inflation on projects, which I guess is fair, but if a nuclear power plant were ever commissioned in Ireland, do they think it would be immune from the same price inflation?
    Children's Hospital anyone? Metro?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,427 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Peak solar record smashed today. About 100MW over the last record set a month ago. Dare I say that record will be broken multiple times over this summer.

    image.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,044 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Yes and this afternoon's trough in demand was only 160MW higher than the overnight demand minimum. The rollout of domestic solar and batteries has already effectively shifted "off peak" from the small hours of the morning to early afternoon on sunny days.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,808 ✭✭✭Busman Paddy Lasty


    Little girls sharing the same lines.

    • Interconnectors don't generate electricity
    • Ireland most expensive electricity in the universe
    • France
    • Finland
    • CO2 emissions
    • Ignore costs like £10 Billion per reactor to decommission

    Nothing positive so say at all. More than likely are climate change deniers. Also likely to oppose abstracting water from the Shannon without having the intelligence to realise how much harder it will be to get planning for nuclear power.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    Another community fighting against wind, why these are not placed overlooking Dublin remains a mystery

    https://m.independent.ie/farming/news/wexford-residents-vow-to-fight-in-the-strongest-possible-terms-to-stop-proposed-eight-turbine-wind-farm/a834672433.html


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124419170/#Comment_124419170


    it’s a good thing we have so much sun in Ireland right? Right??



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    180g co2 today compared to 22 in nuclear France and 53 in kinda nuclear Finland

    Rookie numbers!

    Now off I go to get some sun in garden as might not see it for a while



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,427 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Considering you are pro-Nuclear, perhaps we should put a Nuclear Power plant in their parish?



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