Home heating oil prices

Well, I'm not talking about prices changing every other day I'm referring to the fact that one premises in NI was selling kero 19 cents a litre more than another establishment on the same day. That's a rip off in anyone's language.

I do however hope your prediction is correct.

Without a doubt. A nice window is opening up. Until the US-Iran ceasefire ends next Tuesday, you wouldn't know, prices could get back to 1400 for a 1000l.

A long way to go to 950 though and that won't happen for minimum 6-12 months while a risk premium attachs.

What about the bull whip effect of a sudden glut followed by the 6 weeks of next to 0 oil pumping during the war

That's literally what is happening. One seller could have bought last Monday and paid £1.05 a litre and another could have bought on Wednesday and paid 95p.

The place that bought at £1.05 suddenly finds business very slow and it takes longer than normal to sell through the higher price fuel before buying at the new lower price.

Hence their price stays higher for longer.

Try Tesco30

And keresene at petrol stations arent a big seller so they could get stuck with the dearer keresene for a long while.

People will believe what they want.

Shur the government said its petrol stations that are gouging and our oil is unaddected by iran cause we fet it from the north sea. .

The next week people were protesting fuel prices.

Now any time a petrolstation is dear, they are gouging.

The answer if you think they are gouging, go elsewhere

Use code MAY10 for 10 euros off 300 litres from Top Oil.

I think Sms20 still works.

Gone up a tenner overnight to €726😡😡 they're unbelievable robbers...

Oil price had gone from about $100 to $113 over the past 2 weeks. Now dropping back a little. Refinery margins have steadied between $45-$50 for diesel/kero, but did jump from about $10 to almost $30 for petrol - hence approx 8c-10c increase in petrol prices in the past 3 weeks.

Supplies of refined kero/diesel/jet fuel (and crude oil) are not far off "normal" levels as new sources such as USA, Venezuela & North Africa are supplying Europe. Refining margins are still high from a historic point of view, but the $80-$90 margins we saw in March and April won't be coming back even if the strait of Hormuz stays blocked.

Whilst the blockade continues, kero will be in the €1350-€1400 range for 1,000 litres. Similarly for road fuels, prices will be steady and unlikely to see much movement up or down.

Looking ahead. There is a very strong possibility of a glut and a very substantial price drop - but that is entirely dependent on a complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The reason a glut may be on the horizon in that scenario is we have refineries in other parts of the world now suppling Europe (and other countries), oil production elsewhere is elevated and supply is near 95% of "normal" levels without Middle East supply. (Middle East had supplied 20% of world oil and over 30% of Kero and Jet Fuel)

The Middle East have lost hundreds of Billions of dollars in revenue and have oil literally gushing out and every storage facility and tanker is near full. That will lead to an oversupply in the market and a plunge in price.

But it will only happen when the risk levels in the middle east drop back to pre Trump's war levels. No-one is able to forecast when that will happen and the market now completely ignores what that orange fools says.

In a way, the current blockade suits trump as the US is a major producer of oil and refined fuel and their exports of fuels is soaring to unprecedented levels.

Yes I do because at that time Europe was using a lot of Russian oil. It certainly had nothing to do with what brand of car a Ukrainian family were driving, what a petty and childish remark to make.

I think the idea is that those billions should be used when the next recession comes along to ensure jobs can be maintained and economic growth doesn't get hampered too much. Subsidies for fossil fuel has no long term benefit, some would say it's the literal definition of money going up in smoke. The orange idiots war will eventually end and then the fuel subsidies will need to be reversed which always causes people to complain so it doesn't even buy votes in the long term