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Nuclear - future for Ireland?

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Comments

  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Won't they be closer to shore than the Kinsale Gas Platforms that were there for 42 years ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 442 ✭✭tppytoppy


    What sort surface area does a gas rig have compared to a wind turbine designed to catch the wind



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,045 ✭✭✭✭josip


    The blades feather in high winds. It's not rocket science.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 442 ✭✭tppytoppy




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,994 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    That would be the same not rocket science that had every turbine in the Highwind Scotland floating array trashed in just 10 years. One of the turbines in the small Kincardine floating array didn't even last 2 years before having to be towed back to Antwerp.

    No company builds turbines that can withstand the sea and wind conditions necessary for 50%+ capacity factors. Once again, Ireland is basing it's energy future on technology that doesn't exist, like the cheap and abundant grid scale storage that doesn't exist but is utterly necessary to get net zero out of renewables.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,045 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Why do you continue referencing floating wind? The proposed wind farms in the Irish and Celtic Seas are fixed bottom.

    Yes turbines and blades fail. That's not unexpected, blade failure is the most common type of failure in wind turbines.

    https://werover.com/blog/common-wind-turbine-failures/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,493 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    Green Atlantic is proposing floating. But that’s still a pipe dream


    https://greenatlanticatmoneypoint.ie/concept



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    The whole week is gonna be “breezy” looking at met.ie forecast

    That’s hundreds of billions in turlough hill equivalent in storage needed to go carbon free

    Speaking of predictability I found it hilarious that Eirgrid dashboard had to remove their predicted wind line from dashboard as it regularly was off by several GWh, must been awfully embarrassing

    build two extra reactors and keep rotating if you are so worried, we still come out with greener and cheaper electricity and not have to convert every hill in country with storage at cost of hundreds of billions



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,493 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    More than likely we'll be seen the Vestas V236-15 in use of our coasts.

    Cut in speed of 3 m/s and cut out off 31m/s. so pretty good power curve. The claim is 60% capacity factor. It'd be very interesting to find real world experience. I very much doubt its 60%

    They can be ordered with the following Wind Class IEC S or S,T S is special so designed for that specific location, S,T is Special Tropical so is designed to handle speeds of 75 m/s or 205 kmh.

    i believe the strongest wind recorded of the Irish coast is just over 180kmh.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    It will have shut down for self preservation long before wind reaches not much more than half that 180kmh. And as far as our Atlantic coast is concerned for offshore turbines, self preservation from high winds would be most likely the least of their concerns.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,493 ✭✭✭✭ted1




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    No real discernible difference from any other wind turbine so.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,493 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    well a turbine like the Nordex N90 has a cut out speed of 25m/s,, the N149 is 26m/s. So 31m/s does give a much nicer power curve and will certainly increase its capacity factor



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,994 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Because whether it's floating or fixed bottom is irrelevant; the point is that no existing turbine designs can withstand the wind states that result in 50%+ capacity factors. If turbines only last 2-7 years, that's not going to be economically sustainable.

    Norwegian energy giant Equinor will temporarily remove all five floating wind turbines from the pioneering Hywind Scotland array later this year after discovering a need for “heavy maintenance” on the Siemens Gamesa machines deployed there, Recharge has learned.

    The 6MW turbines will be towed back to Wergeland on the west coast of Norway as part of a maintenance programme that is likely to take around four months and will disrupt power output from the project operating 24km off Peterhead since 2017. All units will be reconnected back on the Hywind Scotland site when the maintenance is complete, a spokesman for the Norwegian company confirmed.

    The work will involve changing some components on the turbines, as well as more routine maintenance. “What we see from operational data is that there is a need for… heavy maintenance on the turbines,” he told Recharge.

    Cute that you think it's just common blade failure. 'Heavy maintenance' is code for replacing everything but the mast, and possibly those as well.

    That article is from 2024, so I mis-remembered, the turbines were wrecked in just 7 years, not even 10.

    Post edited by cnocbui on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Capacity factor for wind turbines is meaningless when they are generating very little due to little wind and nothing when they are shut down due to strong winds. Something that those favouring wind run away from when asked how they propose to provide what would be required during those periods, and at what cost.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,493 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    its very meaningful, its a measure of how much it output Vs how much it would have if it ran 24/7. It actually quantifies your point about them been off with no wind or shut down due to high wind.

    you use the LOCE to calculate how much a delivered MWh is from different technologies. currently we use gas to fill the gaps. the costs are available



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,994 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    The Hywind Scotland turbines didn't last 7 years. One of 5 turbines in the Kincardine array was done after just a few months.

    The pioneering 50MW Kincardine floating wind farm off the coast of Aberdeen, Scotland, has suffered a significant technical set back just months after it became fully operational.

    A major component in one of the five V164-9.5MW Vestas turbines at the site is understood to be in need of replacement.

    The turbine is to be removed from the array and towed to an undisclosed port location while the work is carried out.

    It is also understood the other four turbines that make up the project will continue to export power to the grid as normal.

    Any wind farm constructor who believes the 'specs' from the manufacturers of 50%+ wind turbines is a fool. A 20% major failure every few months for turbines isn't a valid business model, neither is 7 years.

    Every floating wind farm built so far has had initial capital costs exceeding those of the OL-3 reactor, god knows what the real costs are factoring in the 'heavy maintenance' and towing costs.

    The fact that the developers of 50%+ capacity factor wind farm off Carna were willing to swallow losing a €35 million bond rather than a much more substantial loss than if they had gone ahead, tells us all we need to know about the commercial viability of Ireland's 50%+ capacity factor pipe dream.

    A €35.4m bond lodged with the State relating to a proposed offshore wind farm in the vicinity of Sceirde Rocks off Carna in Conamara will not be returned to the project promoters.

    Even though the company Corio Generation, and their Australian funders have pulled out of the Sceirde Rock enterprise their large bond lodgement is now lost.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,493 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    the vestas I listed are being for monopole or jacket foundation and wont be floating


    Sceirde rocks obviously didn’t due diligence while putting their bid together



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    Another “breezy” day of wind doing f all

    IMG_6794.jpeg IMG_6793.jpeg

    we up to 122 turlough hills of storage needed just to cover last two days



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,994 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    LCOE is an inappropriate measure of the true cost of renewables. It does not account for the cost of the gas used to compensate for their poor performance, nor does it account for the cost of grid stability or storage requirements. Engineers are aware of this problem, there is at least one paper addressing it:

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629624004882

    1-s2.0-S2214629624004882-gr1_lrg.jpg

    Using just LCOE, renewables look cheap, but a full sytem LCOE shows they are ridiculously expensive compared to nuclear, particularly solar.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    The capacity factor is the average generated percentage of a turbines installed capacity measured over a year. It’s meaningless when wind is providing little or nothing as demand requirements are not a constant average. In fact demand is highest during winter and those are the two periods where we experience our highest winds and prolonged periods of low winds as well.

    Not the point I was making. We are supposedly designing a system to supply our 2050 requirements where gas will be out of the generation mix by then. My point is how do those that favour wind propose to achieve this 2050 demand and at what cost in capital spend and cost of electricity to the consumer.That is the question they have been running away from when asked. Nothing to do with the present LOCE.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 442 ✭✭tppytoppy


    10% Import and so much gas being burnt at the moment. The UK must not have any low CO2 electrons to spare. What happens when countries must start paying CO2 fines; they won't send any low CO2 electricity to Ireland.

    I am totting up the amount of electricity I am using at this moment and it is probably about 90 watts except for the car which will have slurped about 50kwh by the time I leave office. We will have to ban daytime charging of cars if the Datacentres are to keep running.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,493 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    Could we have a nuclear plant running by 2050. The Simple asnwer is No, we couldn't

    should we keep burning fossil fuel, no.

    does RES displace fossil fuel, yes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    Can we build enough backup battery and hydro that doesn’t cost hundreds of billions and replace gas

    No

    The current path leads to keep relying on gas and imports for backup, both are one pipeline cut away from plunging country into darkness for months



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 442 ✭✭tppytoppy


    @ted1 That is just your opinion. The punitive CO2 fines were voted in to law based on unrealistic pie in the sky projections such as are peddled on here.

    Does Wind or Solar deliver affordable electricity: no

    At this stage burning dirty coal without carbon capture and scrubbing it is about the best option we have got until SMRs achieve acceptance across the world. Ireland is not going to be a technology leader in clean energy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,994 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Of course we could, it takes 8-9 years for KHNP to build a reactor. If you passed enabling legislation bypassing the existing planning system and cut the public sector out of the process, it could be done. We have seen with the children's hospital the gobsmacking incompetence of the public sector and how that translates to massive time and cost blow outs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    The global average construction time from first pour to grid connection is 6 - 8 years. Anything longer than that would be the result of us not getting our act together.

    Yet again just another answer running away from how and what renewables will replace fossil fuels to achieve zero emissions by 2050, at what capital costs and the resulting subsequent cost to the consumer because of the realisation they would both be so outlandish they would be beyond laughable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,493 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    We can’t even build a metro.

    You think a government will railroad a nuclear plant , bypass all planning laws. Ignore every legal challenge and survive. ?

    Not a chance



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,493 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    you don’t wake up in the morning and start pouting. It’ll take 42 years to get to that stage.

    Far too many NIMBYS and planing laws. No government would be strong enough to put their neck on the line and push it through



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Those advocating a 100% unachievable renewables grid have been pushing for the government here for such changes to the law so why should it not be the same nuclear. When needs come to musts governments will have no choice but put their neck on the line. The indications from this present government is that realisation is now beginning to dawn on them.


    Still nothing on the capital costs or the cost of electricity to the consumer of a 100% renewables grid by 2050. Any particular reason for that ?



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